Relegationometer

[BlackandWhite]

Being the pessimistic b****** this club has turned me into with constant let downs, false storms and disappointments I done arguably the most pessimistic predictor of all for us and had us going down on 33 points (just 5 more than we have now). This was just before the palace game (which I predicted we would lose).

 

However a win on the final day against Chelsea (which I predicted we’d lose) would have us staying up on 36 points, Huddersfield down on 33 and Stoke down on 35. Can’t even remember what WBA got as they were never a threat.

 

All of our 'storms' tend to be genuine 

 

Haha I know, but storms are often viewed positively in terms of football analogies. Like when a player has a ‘stormer’ it means he played excellent. So in football terms, yes we are a club of false storms, whenever it looks like we are about to cause a storm/have a ‘stormer’ it turns out to be anything but what we had hoped.

[Altamullan]

Fair enough B&W, that never 'dawned' on me 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Interesting to see us being as low as 17%, I wasn't brave enough to vote anything lower than a 4. Guess that just shows how much fear and pessimism plays into this debate.

[Tiresias]

17% isn't nothing, i remember polls saying Trump had a 10% chance to win the election and look at that

 

If we can replicate our Man U performance and Slimani is a useful goal scorer I think we'll be fine, a win against Bournemouth would be a great boost. Hard to call mind they seem to fluctuate in quality wildly, one minute they're dominating a much better funded team next they're losing to some shit team.

[BergenMagpie]

I think Soton will find some form and stay up relatively comfortably. Cant see them dropping

[AyeDubbleYoo]

17% isn't nothing, i remember polls saying Trump had a 10% chance to win the election and look at that

 

Of course, but it translates to a 2 on the poll, which almost nobody has gone for. Even the optimists like me are around 4, which is twice as likely as 'reality'.

 

[Guest Howaythetoon]

I did the predictor thing and had us finishing one place above relegation on 38 points (2 points ahead) and I was kind of negative in terms of us getting points against the opposition. I think I had us down as winning only one further game. I had WBA down, Stoke and Brighton. I’d be happy with that. I still fear for us, mind, but there are at least 7 teams in it, maybe even more. It’s mad down there looking at the table. If we were to win the next two games for example we could be looking at the comfort of mid-table. Lose the next two and we could be back in the bottom 3. I’m at a 6 at the moment.

[Dokko]

Same chance of staying up as Swansea who were nailed on dead certs a few games ago. Just like wba right now. 17% is bollocks when you look at what we've done so far this season. Optimistically you'd be looking at 50%, along with many other teams.

[54]

Same chance of staying up as Swansea who were nailed on dead certs a few games ago. Just like wba right now. 17% is bollocks when you look at what we've done so far this season. Optimistically you'd be looking at 50%, along with many other teams.

Technically, given how there are 3 spaces from about 10 teams, you're probably looking at a 30% chance of relegation.

[Collage]

Love this, looking at the table and saying "There's a big risk/chance WBA will be relegated because they're 20th. Newcastle are 13th so the risk of them being relegated is not as big." Great analysis.

We're 2 points ahead of Southampton in 18th, i.e. the past and present is not important, the games ahead of us are.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Love this, looking at the table and saying "There's a big risk/chance WBA will be relegated because they're 20th. Newcastle are 13th so the risk of them being relegated is not as big." Great analysis.

We're 2 points ahead of Southampton in 18th, i.e. the past and present is not important, the games ahead of us are.

 

Isn't it based on the points at the moment, compared to the likely points to stay up etc?

[Collage]

Love this, looking at the table and saying "There's a big risk/chance WBA will be relegated because they're 20th. Newcastle are 13th so the risk of them being relegated is not as big." Great analysis.

We're 2 points ahead of Southampton in 18th, i.e. the past and present is not important, the games ahead of us are.

 

Isn't it based on the points at the moment, compared to the likely points to stay up etc?

 

Maybe I didn't read it closely enough but it seems to put emphasis on current league position, and as it's so tight it's not really important.

[Dr Venkman]

Interesting to see us being as low as 17%, I wasn't brave enough to vote anything lower than a 4. Guess that just shows how much fear and pessimism plays into this debate.

 

And being wrong.

[Roids]

I still feel Southampton will come good, most talented team in the bottom half, could probably do with a new manager bounce. WBA look like they might be done but after Palace & now Swansea would hesitate to write anyone off.  Going with that tho it's looking like any 2 from 9, equal chance all around. 3 wins and a couple draws would do it, seems so achievable on paper...

[afar]

I think Soton will find some form and stay up relatively comfortably. Cant see them dropping

 

Their performance against Liverpool should be very worrying. They looked so toothless up front and very dodgy at the back. Compare their perfomrance with the desire we showed against Manure, and if you were a southampton fan you should be very nervous. These and Stoke remind me of us in our relegation season, sleepwalking through it, with a lot of players who frankly don't care enough.

[Altamullan]

WBA, Southampton and Stoke or Huddersfield, for me. As others have said though, it is so unusually tight that anything could happen. Decent spell and winning our three most winnable home games and we could be up between 10-12. Without that we could be in the mix and in the mire. I am leaning towards the former though. And on that note, I predict an 11th place finish comfortably above the other promoted sides (chalking that as another NUFC competition win!)

[mrmojorisin75]

I still feel Southampton will come good, most talented team in the bottom half, could probably do with a new manager bounce. WBA look like they might be done but after Palace & now Swansea would hesitate to write anyone off.  Going with that tho it's looking like any 2 from 9, equal chance all around. 3 wins and a couple draws would do it, seems so achievable on paper...

Are they really that talented anymore? Who do they have left?

[HaydnNUFC]

I still feel Southampton will come good, most talented team in the bottom half, could probably do with a new manager bounce. WBA look like they might be done but after Palace & now Swansea would hesitate to write anyone off.  Going with that tho it's looking like any 2 from 9, equal chance all around. 3 wins and a couple draws would do it, seems so achievable on paper...

Are they really that talented anymore? Who do they have left?

[mrmojorisin75]

I still feel Southampton will come good, most talented team in the bottom half, could probably do with a new manager bounce. WBA look like they might be done but after Palace & now Swansea would hesitate to write anyone off.  Going with that tho it's looking like any 2 from 9, equal chance all around. 3 wins and a couple draws would do it, seems so achievable on paper...

Are they really that talented anymore? Who do they have left?

I meant in their squad

[HaydnNUFC]

I still feel Southampton will come good, most talented team in the bottom half, could probably do with a new manager bounce. WBA look like they might be done but after Palace & now Swansea would hesitate to write anyone off.  Going with that tho it's looking like any 2 from 9, equal chance all around. 3 wins and a couple draws would do it, seems so achievable on paper...

Are they really that talented anymore? Who do they have left?

I meant in their squad

My bad.

 

I rate Lemina, Bertrand and Austin. Struggling to think of names after those though.

[Altamullan]

Southampton look beaten to me. They’ve done well, tbf, to hang in as long as they have.

[Bimpy474]

Only 4 home games left, oh.

[Guest firetotheworks]

I still feel Southampton will come good, most talented team in the bottom half, could probably do with a new manager bounce. WBA look like they might be done but after Palace & now Swansea would hesitate to write anyone off.  Going with that tho it's looking like any 2 from 9, equal chance all around. 3 wins and a couple draws would do it, seems so achievable on paper...

Are they really that talented anymore? Who do they have left?

I meant in their squad

My bad.

 

I rate Lemina, Bertrand and Austin. Struggling to think of names after those though.

 

Ward-Prowse, Yoshida, Romeu, Tadic, Gabbiadini, Redmond are all players that still shouldn't be fighting relegation imo. I have no idea why they haven't sacked Pellegrino, it's fucking bizarre.

[HaydnNUFC]

I still feel Southampton will come good, most talented team in the bottom half, could probably do with a new manager bounce. WBA look like they might be done but after Palace & now Swansea would hesitate to write anyone off.  Going with that tho it's looking like any 2 from 9, equal chance all around. 3 wins and a couple draws would do it, seems so achievable on paper...

Are they really that talented anymore? Who do they have left?

I meant in their squad

My bad.

 

I rate Lemina, Bertrand and Austin. Struggling to think of names after those though.

 

Ward-Prowse, Yoshida, Romeu, Tadic, Gabbiadini, Redmond are all players that still shouldn't be fighting relegation imo. I have no idea why they haven't sacked Pellegrino, it's f***ing bizarre.

Tadic and Redmond came to mind but they've been slagged off by many Southampton fans this season.

 

Who would they get if they did sack him? Silva? Can't think of many managers who'd go there atm.

[Guest firetotheworks]

I still feel Southampton will come good, most talented team in the bottom half, could probably do with a new manager bounce. WBA look like they might be done but after Palace & now Swansea would hesitate to write anyone off.  Going with that tho it's looking like any 2 from 9, equal chance all around. 3 wins and a couple draws would do it, seems so achievable on paper...

Are they really that talented anymore? Who do they have left?

I meant in their squad

My bad.

 

I rate Lemina, Bertrand and Austin. Struggling to think of names after those though.

 

Ward-Prowse, Yoshida, Romeu, Tadic, Gabbiadini, Redmond are all players that still shouldn't be fighting relegation imo. I have no idea why they haven't sacked Pellegrino, it's f***ing bizarre.

Tadic and Redmond came to mind but they've been slagged off by many Southampton fans this season.

 

Who would they get if they did sack him? Silva? Can't think of many managers who'd go there atm.

 

Redmond is a very weird player whenever I've watched him. Quite often he looks the business right up until the moment it comes to play the final ball or a final shot and then it just isn't there. He seems to have gone backwards, but under Puel he looked much better going forward.

 

No idea who would go there, but they're in a position now where any change barring the likes of Pardew/Lambert would probably bring some sort of upturn in form.