Relegationometer

[Super Duper Branko Strupar]

Aye. Fucking outrageous exchange. He's by far and away their main threat, but Borini has his moments too. Without Defoe they'd be fucking buried. Might head up and knee cap him.

[Stottie]

Sunderland in the last six are W1 D4 L1 scoring just 5 and conceding just 4. Three of those goals came against Norwich, so the other five games would be W0 D4 L1 off two goals scored, four conceded. Four results off two goals (!) That's tightrope stuff, really squeezing it out.

 

Norwich have scored four goals in their last six games, three of which were against us. Take away Steven Taylor, Janmaat and a handball and that's one goal in five games. They've now lost three in a row.

 

We're riding our luck and squeezing out results like Sunderland. We're still not creating that much but have been playing Liverpool and Man City in fairness. Since ditching the berks mentioned above, we're not handing anything like as many presents any more.

 

With both us and the mackems getting results without convincing, it looks like it'll go to the wire. With the points on the board, I think its

 

Us 51%

mackems 52%

Norwich 97%

[Super Duper Branko Strupar]

Have you just allocated percentages based on your own thoughts?

[timeEd32]

Updated ESPN SPI relegation projections:

 

57% Sunderland (51% before today)

64% Newcastle (82%)

79% Norwich City (67%)

 

What a difference a day makes.

[Stottie]

Have you just allocated percentages based on your own thoughts?

 

Of course!

(fwiw any stats person actually analyzing games and looking at more than ten games gets us with McClaren. More than four games and its us with Steven Taylor. We are a different team now).

 

Norwich aren't going to get any points if they can't score goals. They are not scoring goals at the moment and Cameron Jerome has a career full of not scoring goals. They're up next against the best defence in the league at stopping goals. I reckon they are all but down. They won't finish above both us and Sunderland.

 

That leaves one place between two teams who are both scraping results. They have a game in hand and the GD but we have one more point. It's basically 50-50. It could come down to one touch of class, one error, or one refereeing gaffe.

[Decky]

We are two wins from staying up... I'm shocked we mustered this but since the City result we've fought back very well to give survival hopes a massive boost. It's gone from practically over to almost 50/50.

 

2 wins from 2 games though, which would be 3 in 3 for us. Very unlikely.

[afar]

I did the predictor yet again still have us down even winning both games. Down on GD, with the Mackems staying up, that last minute penalty today could cost us big time.

[Decky]

Not a chance are we going down if we win our next 2.

[hakka]

We are two wins from staying up... I'm shocked we mustered this but since the City result we've fought back very well to give survival hopes a massive boost. It's gone from practically over to almost 50/50.

 

2 wins from 2 games though, which would be 3 in 3 for us. Very unlikely.

 

With one if them being Villa sort of skews the odds in our favour. And maybe more so if Spurs have wrapped up second and can't get first by time we play them.

[hakka]

We are two wins from staying up... I'm shocked we mustered this but since the City result we've fought back very well to give survival hopes a massive boost. It's gone from practically over to almost 50/50.

 

Since Swansea, surely.

 

Yeah I should have said Swansea, although beating them at home was considerably easier than the task of taking any points at all from City and then Liverpool. It's like each time we beat expectations we kept doing it again and our fortunes are snowballing now.

[Varadi]

Villa have lost 11 games in a row, conceding 32 goals. That game is as close as it gets to a free hit in the premier league.

 

Could even look to put dent in the mackems goal difference advantage, especially if Chelsea can beat them by a couple.

[Guest Hog]

I commend this late run of effort from the team and while there's life there's hope... however, I think the mackems are proving their spawniness and will do just enough to stay up. We should have got Rafa in earlier, I still think we're going down.

[Guest]

They're still only drawing games though. I think they'll win one more which might be enough for them. But they've won 1 in 9, they probably need 2 in 3 to give themselves a good chance.

[gdm]

Sunderland lose their next two and we beat Villa. Safe before the last game. Easy

[Kevo]

People are ignoring Norwich too much Imo. If Sunderland are a threat having Chelsea then Everton to play at home, then Norwich are equally as dangerous having Man Utd and Watford to play.

 

This is bloody horrible. Can't relax and just want Saturday out of the way as I think it should be a lot clearer who has the best chance of survival. Huge day of football (again).

[hakka]

There's hope in Martinez being at risk of the sack at Everton. He needs to finish as high as he can to save his skin.

[Tubestationatmidnight]

7

[Village Idiot]

Despite not being in NUFC's hands, I think two wins will be enough. But it has to be two wins. Norwich and Sunderland won't win three in a row despite facing teams without anything to play for.

 

Of course, by the same token it's hard to see NUFC winning 3 in a row this season. But win at Villa and turning Spurs at SJP isn't impossible. The atmosphere should be amazing at least.

[Figures 1-0 Football]

Two wins will be enough imo and I'm starting to get more confident that we can get them.

 

Realised on the way home that if the mackems lose the next two, we are safe if we beat Villa. Come on Chelsea and Everton! (Norwich getting 1 points or less from their games too, which is highly likely).

[Minhosa]

Two wins will be enough imo and I'm starting to get more confident that we can get them.

 

Realised on the way home that if the mackems lose the next two, we are safe if we beat Villa. Come on Chelsea and Everton! (Norwich getting 1 points or less from their games too, which is highly likely).

 

Spurs will be an incredibly tough game, even if they're on the beach.

[Guest]

The Cup Semi Final outcomes were massive mind. Everton & Watford not saving themselves for a final and still having pride to play for is big for us.

[Figures 1-0 Football]

Two wins will be enough imo and I'm starting to get more confident that we can get them.

 

Realised on the way home that if the mackems lose the next two, we are safe if we beat Villa. Come on Chelsea and Everton! (Norwich getting 1 points or less from their games too, which is highly likely).

 

Spurs will be an incredibly tough game, even if they're on the beach.

 

I agree but they are beatable, especially at home where in recent weeks we've looked like we could give anyone a decent game.

[Minhosa]

Two wins will be enough imo and I'm starting to get more confident that we can get them.

 

Realised on the way home that if the mackems lose the next two, we are safe if we beat Villa. Come on Chelsea and Everton! (Norwich getting 1 points or less from their games too, which is highly likely).

 

Spurs will be an incredibly tough game, even if they're on the beach.

 

I agree but they are beatable, especially at home where in recent weeks we've looked like we could give anyone a decent game.

 

Praying we only need a point and we play the most boring 0-0 known to man. If we have to beat them, it will be a mighty big ask. They've got some real game changers in Kane/Lamela/Eriksen etc. Too many to mention and they're defensively rock.

[Stray Mackem]

The Cup Semi Final outcomes were massive mind. Everton & Watford not saving themselves for a final and still having pride to play for is big for us.

 

I don't know about that. Palace gave a great performance yesterday and were unlucky not to get at least a draw.

 

There's nowt wrong with getting lucky, we deserved sfa yesterday and got a point.

 

I've voted 7 but if you had a poll for Sunderland I'd probably vote the same. If you beat Villa next week and we don't beat Chelsea then it's game over for us.

[M1tche]

I can see us beating Villa, being the only win for any of us now. I've got Sunderland and Norwich as Lose, Draw, Draw and us as Win, Lose.