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Relegationometer

Yorkie

by Yorkie
in Football

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Relegationometer  

332 members have voted

  1. 1. We going down then or what? 10 - aye, doomed, no hope of salvation / 5 - can't call it / 0 - nah we're sound, can't wait for next season

    • 0
      20
    • 1
      19
    • 2
      16
    • 3
      18
    • 4
      20
    • 5
      27
    • 6
      22
    • 7
      17
    • 8
      37
    • 9
      25
    • 10
      35

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Decky

Decky

Posted
Posted

We've only lost twice in what, 9 games? Both to the best side the league has seen in years and even then we could have nicked a draw in one of them. Before this run of 9 games we could easily have sat here writing them all off as defeats but that's not what happened. We beat the team in 2nd place at the weekend, that's a prime example of how the league can't be predicted.

 

Our squad has confidence and we've probably got another kick of confidence once Slimani gets involved in the coming weeks. Bournemouth are in the pits at the minute, we really should be winning that game.

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54

54

Posted
Posted

We've only lost twice in what, 9 games? Both to the best side the league has seen in years and even then we could have nicked a draw in one of them. Before this run of 9 games we could easily have sat here writing them all off as defeats but that's not what happened. We beat the team in 2nd place at the weekend, that's a prime example of how the league can't be predicted.

 

Our squad has confidence and we've probably got another kick of confidence once Slimani gets involved in the coming weeks. Bournemouth are in the pits at the minute, we really should be winning that game.

Other then that Huddersfield game, which could be seen as a blip, they're actually in really good form, it was the first game they'd lost in about 8 iirc.

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54

Posted
Posted

Was confusing them with Burnley for some reason. Yeah they're in decent form alright. :lol:

Tbf Bournemouth do have a habit of going on losing runs, they seem a bit like us under Pardew, so hopefully that Huddersfield game was the start of another losing streak.

 

Tbf I quite like Bournemouth, wouldn't mind them staying up, and getting a few wins, after we beat them obviously.

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samptime29

samptime29

Posted
Posted

Was confusing them with Burnley for some reason. Yeah they're in decent form alright. :lol:

Tbf Bournemouth do have a habit of going on losing runs, they seem a bit like us under Pardew, so hopefully that Huddersfield game was the start of another losing streak.

 

Tbf I quite like Bournemouth, wouldn't mind them staying up, and getting a few wins, after we beat them obviously.

 

Agreed, don't mind them. Howe done a class job overall from where they were.

 

Defo at least 3 other teams I'd prefer to gan down.

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BlackandWhite

BlackandWhite

Posted
Posted

Being the pessimistic b****** this club has turned me into with constant let downs, false storms and disappointments I done arguably the most pessimistic predictor of all for us and had us going down on 33 points (just 5 more than we have now). This was just before the palace game (which I predicted we would lose).

 

However a win on the final day against Chelsea (which I predicted we’d lose) would have us staying up on 36 points, Huddersfield down on 33 and Stoke down on 35. Can’t even remember what WBA got as they were never a threat.

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Altamullan

Altamullan

Posted
Posted

Being the pessimistic b****** this club has turned me into with constant let downs, false storms and disappointments I done arguably the most pessimistic predictor of all for us and had us going down on 33 points (just 5 more than we have now). This was just before the palace game (which I predicted we would lose).

 

However a win on the final day against Chelsea (which I predicted we’d lose) would have us staying up on 36 points, Huddersfield down on 33 and Stoke down on 35. Can’t even remember what WBA got as they were never a threat.

 

All of our 'storms' tend to be genuine  ;)

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NG32

NG32

Posted
Posted

Semtex, how on earth did you have Stoke finishing above us on GD, when they currently have a -26 to our -11, that's a swing of 15 goals in only gaining two more points than us ?

 

Paul Lambert is going to engineer some mega wins and turn that little fat fella they have into a robust goal scorer.

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SteV

SteV

Posted
Posted

Semtex, how on earth did you have Stoke finishing above us on GD, when they currently have a -26 to our -11, that's a swing of 15 goals in only gaining two more points than us ?

 

I'd also be intrigued to see the set of results that lead to this outcome.

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54

54

Posted
Posted

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564

Do Premier League teams really need 40 points to avoid relegation?

 

The 40-point mark - the magic number that supposedly guarantees Premier League survival. But with such a compelling relegation scrap this year, we need to ask, is it still true?

 

After joining the club in December, West Brom manager Alan Pardew said he would treat himself to a glass of wine when the Baggies reached the 40-point mark, although he added that safety "may be a lot less this year - 35 or 36 points". (They're currently bottom on 20 points, by the way).

 

BBC Sport and data analysts Gracenote Sports have examined the history of the relegation fight to find out who you can expect to be in the bottom three come the end of the season.

 

What does history tell us?

4a720eace30a0adc0c4853f6ae9d12ae.png

 

Looking at stats since the Premier League turned into a 20-team league in 1995-96, on only four occasions has a team needed 40 points or more to stay up.

 

The most recent example was in 2011, when 18th placed Birmingham City went down with 39 points and Midlands rivals Wolves stayed up with 40.

 

Here's what else we found:

 

The lowest number of points to guarantee survival was 31 points in 2010, as 18th placed Burnley went down with 30 points.

The highest points total to survive would have been 43 in 2003, with 18th placed West Ham relegated with 42 points.

On average the number of points to guarantee survival in the last 22 seasons has been 36.6 points.

 

Fact: 40 points as a general rule is a myth. But stay with us, as there's predictions to come.

 

So where did this myth come from?

Probably from a different Premier League era, two decades ago.

 

Coventry stayed up in 17th with 41 points, relegating Sunderland in 18th with 40, in 1996-97. The next season, 1997-98, Bolton went down on goal difference in 18th, while Everton stayed up in 17th - both finishing with 40 points.

 

Gracenote says that taking averages over five-year periods, the points needed for Premier League survival has dropped from 37 in 1996-2000, to 35 points now.

 

And what about this year's relegation scrap?

With 11 games to go, Gracenote has 11 teams in the relegation battle and has calculated the chance of each team being relegated.

 

That's from Bournemouth in 10th, down to bottom side West Brom, while the rest of the Premier League's top nine sides all have a less than 1% chance of going down.

 

Already this season, eight Premier League teams have changed manager - Watford, Crystal Palace, Everton, Leicester City, Stoke, Swansea, West Brom and West Ham.

 

Gracenote uses its Euro Club Index ranking of top-flight clubs and then runs season simulations one million times to estimate the chance of each team being relegated.

 

819063ea93da912cd9e518e662dccfb9.png

 

So how many points will be needed?

Using the same formula, Gracenote says 38 points "is more likely than not" to be enough, giving a 62% of staying up, but anything below that and it is a less than 50% chance.

 

"At this stage, it is certain that 40 points will be enough to stay up and that a team getting 34 points will be relegated," says Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports.

 

Perhaps Pardew won't be getting that glass of wine after all...

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SEMTEX

SEMTEX

Posted
Posted

Semtex, how on earth did you have Stoke finishing above us on GD, when they currently have a -26 to our -11, that's a swing of 15 goals in only gaining two more points than us ?

 

I'd also be intrigued to see the set of results that lead to this outcome.

 

Not a very exciting answer I'm afraid. Predictor I did didn't include goals, just win/draw/lose, so I'm sure it just picked the order out of it's arse.

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thomas

thomas

Posted
Posted

So the Gracenote simulator is at a 2. I'm not sure how anyone can be over a 5 at this point unless you think half our team is going to get injured.

Should reset the poll - last voted during that horrible spell near the end of the year iirc, clearly hope was at a low :lol:
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SteV

SteV

Posted
Posted

Semtex, how on earth did you have Stoke finishing above us on GD, when they currently have a -26 to our -11, that's a swing of 15 goals in only gaining two more points than us ?

 

I'd also be intrigued to see the set of results that lead to this outcome.

 

Not a very exciting answer I'm afraid. Predictor I did didn't include goals, just win/draw/lose, so I'm sure it just picked the order out of it's arse.

 

Ah, a lot more sensible/feasible than you having us down for 7-0 wallopings at Liverpool and Spurs.

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