Relegationometer

[Mistle17]

What we need is nothing short of a miracle. We need the players we have to stand up and play above themselves. Sadly, with the pressure, they're not doing that. They're crumbling instead. We might still have a chance... is there such a thing as a backbone transplant?

 

Beyond one or two, I honestly don't think they care. They've probably already discussed transfers with their agents and sounded out interested clubs.

 

Yep, and with the money their getting paid, why would they give a shit?

 

The likes of S.Taylor, Harper, Beye and Carroll all care, imo. Sadly though, thats just not near enough.

[Jayson]

Based on what carroll did yesterday it just might be. Our passing football is crap, but we do get balls in the box. If he can put them away like that we've a chance.

[Ronaldo]

8.5 now tbh. We basically need Hull and Sunderland to pick up no more than 3-5 points during the remainder of the season

 

Cant see us winning any of the games bar Boro and P'mouth, and even those games are 50-50's if we play like we did yesterday.

[GM]

Based on what carroll did yesterday it just might be. Our passing football is crap, but we do get balls in the box. If he can put them away like that we've a chance.

 

Agreed. Getting those balls into the box is all important, no matter how messy it gets.

[Yorkie]

Pleased with Fulham's result. I'm happy they've got their away win out of their system before they play us; it's usually us that ends teams' ruts.

 

Nine more points will see us stay up btw, imo.

[afar]

Pleased with Fulham's result. I'm happy they've got their away win out of their system before they play us; it's usually us that ends teams' ruts.

 

Nine more points will see us stay up btw, imo.

 

They already had an away win, this was their second. They are going to be very tough to beat, especially if they've got an intertoto spot or whatever to shoot for.

[Optimistic Nut]

I've got us down as being 19th by the end of our match on Sunday, 3 adrift of Boro in 18th, 4 points behind Blackburn & Hull, and 5 behind Sunderland.

[Guest Albert Square]

8 for me. I think we will beat Fulham and Portsmouth at home, we seem to always draw against Middlesbrough so I think it will be a draw again, one thing is for sure though and that is they will not beat us at home. Anything from our other 3 games is a bonus but I still think we will finish with 37 points, at this point we are relying on other teams like Sunderland not winning.

[afar]

OK I’ve spent way too long analyzing the fixture lists and the relegation battle. I’ve come to the conclusion that if we win 3 out of the 6 games we have remaining, we will at the very least be relegated on goal difference, but the likelihood is we would stay up.

 

I’ve done the predictor thing on the beeb 3 times over these last few months and each time the same three teams have been relegated Hull, Boro and WBA. It has to be said however that I was optimistic in our results.

 

Crucially for us the title race is very much still on, and hopefully it’ll go down to the wire. If not then those teams playing title contenders in the last game or two: Blackburn, Hull, Mackems and WBA could spring unexpected results.

 

Bolton’s form should be monitored closely, we’ve got to hope that they don’t pack up for their summer holidays early, they’ve got key home games against the Mackems and Hull and travel to Pompey. They could hold the key to who goes down this season.

 

Boro’s run in is on paper the toughest, but their victory at the weekend will give them renewed hope, though it’s difficult to see where they can pick up more than 3 or 4 points. Hull and the Mackems too have difficult run ins. The Mackems fate may well be decided in the next two games against Hull and WBA, their performance against Manure will give them some heart and they are probably favourites to win both those games now.

 

Win our 3 home games and I would be confident that we will stay up, they are all winnable but so many other games were this season that we didn’t win.

 

[Robster]

Personally I am not looking at the other teams fixtures. Apart from my natural pessimism has everyone else winning all of their remaining fixtures, the end of the season always throws up some results that are totally unexpected so any predictions will go out of the window.

 

All that matters to me is NUFC pulling some wins from somewhere because as it stands, if we dont, it matters not a jot what the rest do.

 

I am voting for 8 on the Relegationometer

[Ember]

For me it's up to between 8 and 9.

 

Hopefully Carroll's goal will be the catalyst to get that inferno blazing again.

[Montey]

I think this is now a very close thing.

 

I have been doing some fiddling with the BBC predictor and have come to these scenarios/conclusions:

 

- If we win against either Tottenham or Portsmouth, we will stay up if the other is a draw, we lose to Liverpool and Fulham, win against Middlesbrough and draw with Aston Villa.

- If we draw against both Tottenham and Portsmouth, we then need to win against Aston Villa or Fulham along with Middlesbrough to allow us to lose to Liverpool and stay up.

- If we lose to either Tottenham or Portsmouth, drawing the other, we then need to start winning games we probably can't expect to do better than a draw in.

 

So, in summary, if we loose either of the Tottenham or Portsmough games things are going to be looking very, very bleak.  My predictor indicates that 37 points will probably be enough to stay up, so we need to average better than a point per game for the next 6 games.  This means we -must- get at least 1 win in the next 6 games to stay up, and for every loss beyond the Liverpool game, we need an equivalent win to offset it.  Any more than 2 losses we're screwed, 3 losses with no wins means we're going down.

 

Anyway... there's 5 minutes of analysis.  It's probably full of holes, but meh!

[NG32]

Its so fucking simple.

 

We have to beat

 

Pompy

Boro

Fulham

 

 

Anything else we can pick up will be a massive bonus.

[Dave]

Its so fucking simple.

 

We have to beat

 

Pompy

Boro

Fulham

 

 

Anything else we can pick up will be a massive bonus.

 

[Guest Albert Square]

Just had a look at the fixtures, and we arguably have the best run in out of the North East sides. Boro are fucked, I can see them getting 3 points this weekend and maybe 1 more point for the rest of the season. Sunderland in my opinion will get 6 points in their next 2 games but are in danger of not getting anymore for the rest of the season, maybe something at Pompey. Us on the other hand have 4 games we can get points from also depending on how the season pans out we might have a chance to get something at Villa. I am liking our chances, it is going to be a roller-coaster, I would expect doom and gloom in the next 2 weeks though if the mackems get 6 points.

[leazes.ender]

There is a very grave danger that this weeks CL games have had a major impact on us staying up or going down.

 

Playing Liverpool when we do which would have been before their Semi is now irrelevant. The mackems last game of the season against Chelsea being 3 days before the final could be critical as they may well have nothing to play for in the league and chuck their kids out.

[Guest Albert Square]

There is a very grave danger that this weeks CL games have had a major impact on us staying up or going down.

 

Playing Liverpool when we do which would have been before their Semi is now irrelevant. The mackems last game of the season against Chelsea being 3 days before the final could be critical as they may well have nothing to play for in the league and chuck their kids out.

 

Chelsea's 2nd tier team would still be too good for Sunderland.

[cp40]

Its so fucking simple.

 

We have to beat

 

Pompy

Boro

Fulham

 

 

Anything else we can pick up will be a massive bonus.

 

 

its not that fucking simple, gimp, we could win them three and go down.

[geordie jamie]

teams around us have harder run i think win those 3 and draw another that should be ok.

[dinotheprehistoricgeordie]

I just can't see us beating tottenham, hate the fact we are depnding on other teams fucking up to keep us in it now especially as we have the worst run of games out of the teams surrounding us 

[Karjala]

Its so fucking simple.

 

We have to beat

 

Pompy

Boro

Fulham

 

 

Anything else we can pick up will be a massive bonus.

Yep

 

Tho personally i think 7 points from those will keep us up, 9 defo will.

[cp40]

Its so fucking simple.

 

We have to beat

 

Pompy

Boro

Fulham

 

 

Anything else we can pick up will be a massive bonus.

Yep

 

Tho personally i think 7 points from those will keep us up, 9 defo will.

 

 

what? 37 pts will be nowhere near safety,  sundland32, hull, pomp, bburn 34...will all surpass 37.

[Karjala]

Its so fucking simple.

 

We have to beat

 

Pompy

Boro

Fulham

 

 

Anything else we can pick up will be a massive bonus.

Yep

 

Tho personally i think 7 points from those will keep us up, 9 defo will.

 

 

what? 37 pts will be nowhere near safety,  sundland32, hull, pomp, bburn 34...will all surpass 37.

We'll see

[NG32]

Its so f***ing simple.

 

We have to beat

 

Pompy

Boro

Fulham

 

 

Anything else we can pick up will be a massive bonus.

Yep

 

Tho personally i think 7 points from those will keep us up, 9 defo will.

 

 

what? 37 pts will be nowhere near safety,  sundland32, hull, pomp, bburn 34...will all surpass 37.

 

Teams around us al have to play each other,  they cant all get 3 pts.

 

 

[cp40]

Its so f***ing simple.

 

We have to beat

 

Pompy

Boro

Fulham

 

 

Anything else we can pick up will be a massive bonus.

Yep

 

Tho personally i think 7 points from those will keep us up, 9 defo will.

 

 

what? 37 pts will be nowhere near safety,  sundland32, hull, pomp, bburn 34...will all surpass 37.

 

Teams around us al have to play each other,  they cant all get 3 pts.

 

 

 

 

from 6 games? 7 for pompey, they will get 3 pts, dont kid yourself.

 

 

i think 39 points could get relegated this season.