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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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Can’t think of many of the wins which we didn’t deserve, either? Brighton at home was tricky but the rest we were good value. Can think of at least 4 games where we were the better team for the majority and should have got an extra 1-2 points (Watford home & away, Everton away for 70 mins, Chelsea away, Man U at home). Bodes well for next season when we have a few players added to this.

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7 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

Can’t think of many of the wins which we didn’t deserve, either? Brighton at home was tricky but the rest we were good value. Can think of at least 4 games where we were the better team for the majority and should have got an extra 1-2 points (Watford home & away, Everton away for 70 mins, Chelsea away, Man U at home). Bodes well for next season when we have a few players added to this.

Think Leicester would be right to think they deserved at least a point.

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On 15/01/2022 at 17:36, Optimistic Nut said:

I see it as we’ve got 3 lives left against the teams 8th down clubs. That leaves 11 games to get 24 points. Need to win 8 of those 11. We can afford to not win in 3 of those games and that’s it. 
 

I’m on a 9.


Turns out we’ve won 8 of those 9 fixtures I was referring to so far, just Everton we lost to. Good chance it’ll be 10/11 too the way we’re playing. Brilliant.

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I know this is all insane to even be thinking about but.. considering Liverpool has the EFL Cup and the FA Cup is between Liverpool and Chelsea, how far could European qualification fall when considering the Conference League too now?

 

Am I just dreaming that it could fall to 9th with both teams all but guaranteed to finish in the CL spots? I gave up caring about the variables a long old time ago. 

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At the turn of the year, we had 11 points from 19 games - just over half a point per game. Since then, we've taken 29 points from 14 - just over 2 a game. Even allowing for the signings, that's some feat by Howe.

 

Other teams have much easier run-ins so we're not completely safe. We need to keep our focus. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

I think it’s 7 clubs allowed in Europe regardless but I like your optimism and thinking. :lol:

 

 

 

Damnit. I know they closed extra team loopholes for winning European trophies but thought there was still an avenue domestically. 

 

Ah well. There's always next year. :aww:

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6 hours ago, HaydnNUFC said:

 

 

 

:howe:

I could not be more happy being so fucking wrong, truly over pessimistic and it feels good having it go away bit by bit. I still stand by how shit lascelles is mind :lol:

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Same here, I really thought Howe was the wrong person, plays lovely football but historically his teams couldn’t defend, so bringing in a manager to a team that couldn’t defend could only end in tears in my eyes, boy am I so fucking absolutely over the moon I was 1000% wrong, looks like that time he spent at athletico did him the world of good 

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Just now, midds said:

According to 538 it's:

 

Leeds 14%

Everton 43%

Burnley 45%

 

They've projected them both to get 38 points and Burnley down on GD (6 goals difference)


can’t see Everton bettering Burnley’s goal difference, especially after they ship 6 at the weekend.

 

I don’t see either team getting a single away point (Burnley at Villa maybe) so it’s Everton’s 3 home games vs Burnley’s 4 in a shoot out. All 7 are winnable

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