The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[GWN]

I’d be happy with 5 points mind form those 4 

[Guest]

Seem to be hitting a balance of us starting to win, the rest of the bottom 4 not winning and the 4-5 clubs above us also not winning. Hopefully it continues for another few more matchdays and we could be above a few more clubs.

[buzza]

We have four winnable / points-worthy games coming up; villa at home, Wham and brentford away and then brighton home. We need to take minimum 7/8 points from that lot.

Looks like burnley, norwich and Everton have a run of hard/tricky games coming up, we need to gain some distance from this lot and put some space between us.

[GWN]

23 minutes ago, buzza said:

We have four winnable / points-worthy games coming up; villa at home, Wham and brentford away and then brighton home. We need to take minimum 7/8 points from that lot.

Looks like burnley, norwich and Everton have a run of hard/tricky games coming up, we need to gain some distance from this lot and put some space between us.

 

7/8 points we need? No we don’t , 5 would be perfectly fine , 7/8 would be dreamland man . One step at a time 

[MrRaspberryJam]

11 hours ago, Fantail Breeze said:

It should be fairly routine from here like

 

When do NUFC do things the easy way! 

[Conjo]

We only need to match the points Burnley, Watford and Norwich accumulates for the remainder of the season to stay up. I don't think that means we need 7/8 points over the next 4 games. It would be nice of course, but I don't see either of those teams picking up that many points.

[GWN]

5 minutes ago, Conjo said:

We only need to match the points Burnley, Watford and Norwich accumulates for the remainder of the season to stay up. I don't think that means we need 7/8 points over the next 4 games. It would be nice of course, but I don't see either of those teams picking up that many points.

Amen 

[geordiekris]

Being realistic when was the last time we won three premier league games in a row? I’d happily take a draw against villa now. They looked deadly on the counter last night. There defence can still be getting at however. West Ham I’d put down as a defeat they’re shit hot this season. Then a win and a draw either way from Brentford and Brighton should still see us outside of the bottom three. 
 

Anything else is a bonus. 

[Yorkie]

5 minutes ago, geordiekris said:

Being realistic when was the last time we won three premier league games in a row?

 

2017/18 - Southampton, Huddersfield, Leicester, Arsenal. 

 

The run that raised us to tenth. Then we lost four in a row and somehow managed to stay tenth.

[STM]

12th on form since Howe came in is one hell of an achievement, especially since we had 4 horrendous fixtures on the spin.

 

We are night and day since Bruce. Form points to us staying up IMO. We will shithouse a few more teams on the road IMO.

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, GWN said:

 

7/8 points we need? No we don’t , 5 would be perfectly fine , 7/8 would be dreamland man . One step at a time 

We need a gap going into the last 4 games. We need 7-8 points from runs like this to give us a cushion as I can’t see anything matchday 35-37.

[STM]

1 minute ago, Optimistic Nut said:

We need a gap going into the last 4 games. We need 7-8 points from runs like this to give us a cushion as I can’t see anything matchday 35-37.

By that time of season strange things happen.

[Rich]

Liverpool and City will have nowt to play for by then, man, and fuck fearing Arsenal. Optimistic Not.

[STM]

Yeah, I reckon we will get one big scalp.

[Guest]

Still think we need the points on the board. We need 7-8 from these, otherwise we’re needing 7-8 from the next run of 4 which involves Chelsea & Spurs. Before you know it there’s 4 games left and we need 7 points from Liverpool, City, Arsenal & Burnley.

[Rich]

We’ll be playing Chelsea three days before their second leg with Lille. Spurs won’t be able to cope with our press. Liverpool and Man City hopefully make the CL semis, meaning we’ll play both of those within a few days of the first and second legs, respectively. They’ll already be entrenched in their league positions then, too, I’d hope.

 

Trying to look on the bright side here, of course…

 

I honestly think injuries are the only thing that derails us from here, that’s where my remaining few nerves stem from.

 

It’s almost completely in our own hands now for the first time in ages, Burnley’s games in hand pending, so the task is just to equal theirs, Norwich’s, and Watford’s hauls between now and May.

[Geordie Ahmed]

Yeah, the sooner City wrap up the league title the better 

[r0cafella]

5 minutes ago, Pardiola said:

We’ll be playing Chelsea three days before their second leg with Lille. Spurs won’t be able to cope with our press. Liverpool and Man City hopefully make the CL semis, meaning we’ll play both of those within a few days of the first and second legs, respectively. They’ll already be entrenched in their league positions then, too, I’d hope.

 

Trying to look on the bright side here, of course…

 

I honestly think injuries are the only thing that derails us from here, that’s where my remaining few nerves stem from.

 

It’s almost completely in our own hands now for the first time in ages, Burnley’s games in hand pending, so the task is just to equal theirs, Norwich’s, and Watford’s hauls between now and May.

Rich, your new name is giving me PTSD. 

[arnonel]

If we play with the same hunger as the last game, I think we could realistically get points off all teams except top 3. Not saying we always will, but its not as hopeless as it was 3 months ago when we expected defeat from most games

[The Prophet]

That's it, when you're a normally functioning, competent PL outfit you can take points in just about any game. I just don't think we're used to that yet.

 

That said, we still have a group of largely average players, who will throw in the odd stinker. It's about how they respond to that. Hopefully we know have the leadership on the pitch that means heads won't go down when that comes about.

[Rich]

10 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

Rich, your new name is giving me PTSD. 

Aye it’s not my finest hour, but I was so sure Bruno would start and a man’s only as good as his word.

[r0cafella]

1 minute ago, Pardiola said:

Aye it’s not my finest hour, but I was so sure Bruno would start and a man’s only as good as his word.

[Super Duper Branko Strupar]

37 minutes ago, Pardiola said:

Liverpool and City will have nowt to play for by then, man, and fuck fearing Arsenal. Optimistic Not.

 

 

[The College Dropout]

7 hours ago, Paullow said:

I was 'gubbed', so could only put on like 74p if I wanted to , but Betway's current odds are pretty reassuring.

 

Norwich 2/9

Watford 1/4

Burnley 2/5

Newcastle 11/4

Everton 4/1

Brentford 11/2

Leeds 6/1

Crystal Palace 25/1

 

https://betway.com/en/sports/evt/7596742

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

 

So despite Palace being 2 points clear of Leeds, and the latter having a game in hand, the bookies generally think they are kind of out of it and more like 7 involved.

 

Teams at the bottom don't get a lot of points so games in hand in less important. Points on the board is important. Any team with more points than games after 23 games is highly unlikely to go down unless their form becomes terminal.

 

Palace realistically need to win 3 games and get 3 draws from their next 15 to stay up. That allows them to lose 9 games (when they've only lost 8 all season).

 

Palace vs Brentford on the weekend is huge. Brentford are in free fall losing 5 in a row and losing 8 of the last 10. But the other 2 are wins. Lose here and they are right in it.

 

Norwich - don't score goals. They can nick a few wins but don't score enough goals to stay up imo. They need a lot of their goals to be decisive which won't happen.

Burnley - they really need to start winning. 1 in 20 is horrendous. ARe they good enough to do that consistently?

Watford - Can Roy get the attack/defence balance right? They couldn't defend for toffee under Claudio, yet to score a goal with Roy.

 

I think it's these 3 plus us and Brentford (if they lose to Palace).

 

 

Everton could still go full Kinnear era Newcastle but I don't see it. They're in the less points than games played boat as the rest of the relegation battlers tbh.

[Super Duper Branko Strupar]

57 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

Still think we need the points on the board. We need 7-8 from these, otherwise we’re needing 7-8 from the next run of 4 which involves Chelsea & Spurs. Before you know it there’s 4 games left and we need 7 points from Liverpool, City, Arsenal & Burnley.

 

I dont think if we dont get 7 points from the next 4 then we're down, I think we should still have enough. But the next 4 is a great opportunity to get a decent haul so we should absolutely aim for it. We could pretty much stop looking down if we do that imo.