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24 minutes ago, Pata said:

I’m using the multiplication to show how unlikely something that’s deemed very likely is to happen 9 times in a row. I didn’t realise that it doesn’t somehow apply to football. I have no idea why you think the outcome probabilities were so badly wrong when Liverpool have won seven games in a row and still need help from other teams. Seemed a pretty long shot then to begin with?


So you think bookies saying Liverpool winning a game 6 times out of 10 is just stupid and thick and in reality it’s something like 98-100% due to their experience and stuff? Somehow no one else in the world has noticed this with their thick models and bookies are still raking it in when in reality everyone could be millionaires just by betting on Liverpool? I urge you to start betting as you clearly know better than the rest of the world.

 

Sorry, so you're now trying to say that, actually, the people you've been calling thick in all of this - for saying that these probability models are flawed - it's them calling the bookies and models thick? :lol: Nice try, but obviously no. 

 

No idea why you keep bringing up bookies odds either like. As I say, I don't really gamble, especially at the moment, and Ponsaelius has been and has made a fortune, so what's your point? Even then, bookies odds also take non-probability based factors into account. This isn't anyone thinking they know better than the rest of the world, it's pointing out that the rest of the world (at least within statistics and data analysis) already knows about the limitations and disadvantages of the multiplication rule - none of this is controversial. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Kid Icarus

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I really struggle to even understand your point so we just have to agree to disagree. You think giving probability to a football result is impossible and I think you can give probability to absolutely anything and it being off a few percents doesn't really matter in the long run.

 

gg

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1 minute ago, Pata said:

I really struggle to even understand your point so we just have to agree to disagree. You think giving probability to a football result is impossible and I think you can give probability to absolutely anything and it being off a few percents doesn't really matter in the long run.

 

gg

No, that's obviously a strawman.

 

Saying that a probability is flawed or really exaggerated isn't at all saying it's impossible.

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12 minutes ago, NUFCDoog said:

Atmosphere is mental, Lutons fans seem like absolute lunatics, definitely got the potential to boil over this

God how football has changed that we now think Luton fans are lunatics.

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