Kid Icarus Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Pata said: I’m using the multiplication to show how unlikely something that’s deemed very likely is to happen 9 times in a row. I didn’t realise that it doesn’t somehow apply to football. I have no idea why you think the outcome probabilities were so badly wrong when Liverpool have won seven games in a row and still need help from other teams. Seemed a pretty long shot then to begin with? So you think bookies saying Liverpool winning a game 6 times out of 10 is just stupid and thick and in reality it’s something like 98-100% due to their experience and stuff? Somehow no one else in the world has noticed this with their thick models and bookies are still raking it in when in reality everyone could be millionaires just by betting on Liverpool? I urge you to start betting as you clearly know better than the rest of the world. Sorry, so you're now trying to say that, actually, the people you've been calling thick in all of this - for saying that these probability models are flawed - it's them calling the bookies and models thick? Nice try, but obviously no. No idea why you keep bringing up bookies odds either like. As I say, I don't really gamble, especially at the moment, and Ponsaelius has been and has made a fortune, so what's your point? Even then, bookies odds also take non-probability based factors into account. This isn't anyone thinking they know better than the rest of the world, it's pointing out that the rest of the world (at least within statistics and data analysis) already knows about the limitations and disadvantages of the multiplication rule - none of this is controversial. Edited May 16, 2023 by Kid Icarus Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deuce Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 please let this season end Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 I really struggle to even understand your point so we just have to agree to disagree. You think giving probability to a football result is impossible and I think you can give probability to absolutely anything and it being off a few percents doesn't really matter in the long run. gg Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Pata said: I really struggle to even understand your point so we just have to agree to disagree. You think giving probability to a football result is impossible and I think you can give probability to absolutely anything and it being off a few percents doesn't really matter in the long run. gg No, that's obviously a strawman. Saying that a probability is flawed or really exaggerated isn't at all saying it's impossible. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
54 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Luton winning. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Geordie Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Mackems behind 1-0 Luton Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Oops Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Spaceman Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 FACKING CHEAT Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordie Ahmed Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Luton just need to cross at every chance they get, they are a much bigger side Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sima Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Get in. Now kill them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anderson Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Get in! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Literally happens every week doesn't it? Followed by them ending up winning Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NUFCDoog Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Atmosphere is mental, Lutons fans seem like absolute lunatics, definitely got the potential to boil over this Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordie Ahmed Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Mackems screaming for a penalty Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordie Ahmed Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Initial save from the Luton keeper was class Not a penalty Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilko Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Ball blasted at the fellas hand from a couple yards away with his arm down by his side. Not a pen Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Spaceman Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Luton crowd are properly up for this Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowlingcrofty Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Worrying. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordie Ahmed Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Mackems play the better football out of these two sides, which I think will ultimately make the difference Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Geordie Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 O'Nien clears off line. Mackems under cosh. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numbers Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Did Diallo cost Manchester United £40 mil? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sima Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 These are all over the place with Luton’s size. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordie Ahmed Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Just now, Numbers said: Did Diallo cost Manchester United £40 mil? It could rise to €40m Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitley mag Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 12 minutes ago, NUFCDoog said: Atmosphere is mental, Lutons fans seem like absolute lunatics, definitely got the potential to boil over this God how football has changed that we now think Luton fans are lunatics. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Geordie Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 I wonder if Tommy-ten names will be there tonight. Bit of a pin up for some mackems isn't he? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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