The Europeometer™ (2023/24)

[Armchair Pundit]

When you look at the table, I doesn't seem as bad as it feels currently:

 

7th in the league
5th goal difference
8th form table

 

... but we've got some shit games coming up, a fucked bunch of players with no depth and a serious lack in confidence.

[Colos Short and Curlies]

20 hours ago, Barnes23 said:

If we aren't getting top four, I'd kind of prefer we drop out of Europe altogether for next year to allow us to focus on the league/cups with (hopefully) a fully fit and focused squad. 

 

 

 

no Europe and we probably lose one or two of Bruno, Botman and Isak so a rebuild will need to start, again looking at players who buy into the project.

 

we may have overachieved last season but we need to maintain it if we are going to continue to build.

 

and if that’s what needs to happen, so be it - we’ll just go again

[AJ9]

Not at all sure who comes in for those players who can pay what we would ask for. Maybe Man Utd or Chelsea? Bruno maybe to La Liga but not sure either of them want him enough to fork out the dough.

[GideonShandy]

Back in August I would have said that 6th place, a long run in Europe and another trip to Wembley would make a good season.

 

But for the phantom 8 minutes and phony penalty in Paris and the last-minute Trippier disaster at Chelsea we'd be on track for all of the above.

 

Small margins, as they say.

[Barnes23]

45 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

no Europe and we probably lose one or two of Bruno, Botman and Isak so a rebuild will need to start, again looking at players who buy into the project.

 

we may have overachieved last season but we need to maintain it if we are going to continue to build.

 

and if that’s what needs to happen, so be it - we’ll just go again

 

Is the money from the Europa League / Conference League so great that it would literally be a case of sell-to-buy if we don't make them? I doubt it tbh, but open to being corrected. 

 

I think those players would care far less about missing out on those competitions than they would about missing out on the CL. So a great deal rests on the momentum and trajectory of the club as they see it in terms of their commitment going forward, which hinges on a multitude of factors really. 

[ryanegg]

1 hour ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

no Europe and we probably lose one or two of Bruno, Botman and Isak so a rebuild will need to start, again looking at players who buy into the project.

 

we may have overachieved last season but we need to maintain it if we are going to continue to build.

 

and if that’s what needs to happen, so be it - we’ll just go again

Can’t speak for the players but highly doubt they’d want to leave after one season of no Europe. Two or three maybe, but they joined us knowing we’re a project and as the board have stated, we’re a year ahead of schedule.

[Erikse]

It's not like Salah, Trent, Robertson, Allison or van Dijk wanted to leave Liverpool since they didn't qualify for the Champions League. It doesn't work like that. Botman, Bruno and Trippier chose us knowing that we wouldn't be playing in the Champions League the next season.

 

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Erikse

[Geogaddi]

51 minutes ago, Erikse said:

It's not like Salah, Trent, Robertson, Allison or van Dijk wanted to leave Liverpool since they didn't qualify for the Champions League. It doesn't work like that. Botman, Bruno and Trippier chose us knowing that we wouldn't be playing in the Champions League the next season.

 

 

 

Footballers in general will always go where the money is , them lads at Liverpool won't get much more money anywhere else than they currently get , the whole I want to play champions league football thing works for them as the teams in the champions league usually pay the best money . If a top class footballer really wanted to play champions league football every season they could go play for say Celtic or the likes , they won't do it because them teams don't pay the most money .

 

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Geogaddi

[Colos Short and Curlies]

1 hour ago, Erikse said:

It's not like Salah, Trent, Robertson, Allison or van Dijk wanted to leave Liverpool since they didn't qualify for the Champions League. It doesn't work like that. Botman, Bruno and Trippier chose us knowing that we wouldn't be playing in the Champions League the next season.

 

 

 

I did say Europe, not specifically the CL.

 

and I’d argue that it’s a bit different at Liverpool where they’ve challenged (and won) the league constantly for a number of years. Last year was obviously a blip for them.

 

the players we’ve bought have now had a taste of CL and know they are good enough to go and play for a club pretty much guaranteed to be there year in year out. 

[Erikse]

1 hour ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

I did say Europe, not specifically the CL.

 

and I’d argue that it’s a bit different at Liverpool where they’ve challenged (and won) the league constantly for a number of years. Last year was obviously a blip for them.

 

the players we’ve bought have now had a taste of CL and know they are good enough to go and play for a club pretty much guaranteed to be there year in year out. 

 

Not sure how big of a deal no Europa League or Conference League would be for our players. Not enough to leave just because of that imo. No Champions League is obviously not ideal, but I think that the players know that this also means a better chance at getting back into the CL next season. We have some money ourselves, it's not like we are what Leicester was. Improved sponsorship deals will start to have an effect at some point. I think the only player that could leave is Bruno, but that would also be a possibility even if we qualified. I'm fairly confident that Botman and Isak will stay regardless.

 

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Erikse

[ryanegg]

https://www.skysports.com/amp/football/news/21564/12940385/explained-how-more-than-four-premier-league-teams-can-qualify-for-next-seasons-champions-league
 

Could be Topfiveometer lads. Extra games though as format is changing, so would wonder if they’re changing squad size rules.

[The Prophet]

Back to a game a week after Liverpool, with a decent break after Villa. I think our form might pick up after that, but it could get worse before then.

 

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by The Prophet

[Paullow]

Bring back the top 6 o meter!

[PauloGeordio]

Just now, Paullow said:

Bring back the top 6 o meter!

At least no relagationometer! 

[Stottie]

We're running out of steam faster and earlier than the other teams near the top are supposed to run out of steam.

[Myleftboot]

I think Europe will be his target set by the board members. It’s all about exposure for the best sponsorship deals.

[wormy]

18 hours ago, PauloGeordio said:

At least no relagationometer! 

 

Give it a month. 

[alexf]

19 hours ago, Paullow said:

Bring back the top 6 o meter!

Toptenometer 

[brummie]

19 hours ago, PauloGeordio said:

At least no relagationometer! 

 

Was thinking just now, all the time I've been posting here, year after fucking year you and we were both occupied with either looking at the bottom of the premier league, or the top of the championship.

 

That's why i hate glory hunters. Boo hoo the Glazers, boo hoo FSG etc etc.

 

Try, literally, decades of stinking of death.

[SteV]

Just seen Romero out for five weeks with a hamstring he picked up in their last game.

 

A game he should have been suspended for after his ‘tackle’ on Wilson. Now he’s out for longer than he would have been suspended for. Funny how it works out.

[brummie]

2 hours ago, SteV said:

Just seen Romero out for five weeks with a hamstring he picked up in their last game.

 

A game he should have been suspended for after his ‘tackle’ on Wilson. Now he’s out for longer than he would have been suspended for. Funny how it works out.

Funny, Spurs fans were getting all worked up about a bog standard nothing yellow card challenge by Matty Cash on Bentancur, how he was worse than Hitler and a thug, and - confusingly - how Romero was going to kill him etc. 

 

Then a week or two later, same Romero narrowly avoids snapping someone in half with a tackle ten times as bad. 
 

Spurs fans only slightly less unhinged on the internet than Arsenal fans. 
 

 

[BShearer]

Chelsea winning, Man Utd winning, I guess Spurs will win too tomorrow albeit that helps us keep Brighton away a bit . really horrible round of football and we had the easiest opponent probably this round.

[Coffee_Johnny]

Update on tracker towards a top six finish, taking account of the relative difficulty of games as they fall across the season. 29 points, at the end of December, puts us two points below a sixth place finish for the average PL season (assumptions in hidden content quoted). The losses against Luton, Forest and Everton haven’t put us too far below the curve; in fact two drawers would have seen us still on course for a likely sixth place finish. 
 

 

Spoiler

Assuming we are aiming for a top six season, then taking 6th as a minimum target, here is a way of gauging when we will, on average, pick-up the 61 points likely to be required (average for PL).

Categorising the teams (mainly on last season’s position) into four tiers and predicting we will pick-up (rounded-up) 9pts from T1 (all tiers ten games except 8 in Tier 1), 16 pts from Tier 2, 18pts from T3, and 19pts from T4 teams. 

Tier 1: 8 games 24 pts available, 9 predcited (1 win 2 draws 1 loss at H; 1 win 1 draw 2 losses Away = 5pts + 4 = 9pts). So, 1.25ppg at Home and 1.0ppg Away.

Man City

Arsenal

Man Utd

NUFC

Liverpool

Tier 2: 10 games 30 pts available, 16pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at Home; 2 wins, 0  draw, 3 losses Away =10 +6pts). So, 2.0ppg at Home  and 1.2 ppg Away

Brighton 

Aston Villa

Spurs

Brentford

Chelsea

Tier 3: 10 games 30 pts available, 18pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at H; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 10+8pts). So, 2.0ppg at H ome and 1.6ppg Away.

Palace

Fulham

Wolves

West Ham

Bournemouh

Tier 4 10 games 30 pts available, 19pts predicted (3 wins and 2 draws at Home; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 11+8pts) . So, 2.2ppg at H and 1.6ppg Away .

Forest

Everton

Burnley

Sheffield Utd

Luton 

Remember this is a prediction for 6th.  Taking into account the relative difficulty of games would mean the following pattern of picking up points at different stages of the season.  The average points per month for the top five is also shown, just using number of games per month. I'll correct this as the games inevitably get moved around. The points per match are just indicative, it’s the points per month which will show how on track we are. 

 

[500bhp]

We are at halfway point now and 8 points off the top 4, well its 10 if Man City win their game in hand against Brentford.  We should pick up second half of the season with less games and the injuries clearing up hopefully. But no way do we get top 4 or 5. Looking at around 8th I think. If Brighton and West Ham do well in Europe we may get 7th. 

[Kanji]

Top Ten* needs to be the title here