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The Europeometer™ (2023/24)


Rich

The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

625 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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As long as the injury situation doesnt go back the other way, I could see us getting 40 more point from now till the end of the season, which should hopefully see us in and around 5th.

 

The only 4 fixtures i'd be massively worried about are the 2 league games this month, and then Arsenal and Chelsea away, and I dont see us losing all of those. A return to form and players should see us unbeaten in the rest. 

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I don’t think we can get top 4 now, but by end of January, we will have played Liverpool, Man City and Villa twice in the league. We certainly have a favourable run after.

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All depends on players returning and our form and fitness improving. Which are all possible. But right now I can easily see us going to places like Forrest away and losing. 

 

But if we get (most importantly for me) Willock back and then possibly Barnes and Murphy to help freshen up the wings. We could build up a lovely bit of momentum. 

 

However, we still only have Isak currently available as a fit striker and with Joelinton season being so stop start aswell. I just don't feel as confident as I did before that we finish the season as strong as we will need to make up for our awful recent run. 

 

 

Edited by alexf

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Aim for 35 points and see where it gets us. Probably around 6th. We'd likely need top 2 form and a major crash from Spurs to get top 5.

 

Chelsea are a danger. They still aren't at their best but Pochettino is a good manager and they have quality players. They could click.

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Chelsea will grow into the second half of the season if they can keep their core fit, top 6 would be a great finish for us (and still would have been at the start of the season). We just need to focus on our own run of form and keep everyone as fit as possible.

 

 

Edited by Nine

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I don't see how we can just get a sudden upturn in away form.

 

We'd have to turn from being 2nd worst team in the league to being top 2-3 form for away games.

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Just now, Aiston said:

I don't see how we can just get a sudden upturn in away form.

 

We'd have to turn from being 2nd worst team in the league to being top 2-3 form for away games.

Close to fully fit squad. a 5% improvement in performance gets us better results at bottom half clubs away from home.

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What’s everyone’s expectations now with the latest injury blows ? Top 4 was already gone for me, but I thought we would go on a run and get top 7 (I thought the players would be back in January). After today’s news I reckon we will be around 9th/10th. 

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Just now, SUPERTOON said:

What’s everyone’s expectations now with the latest injury blows ? Top 4 was already gone for me, but I thought we would go on a run and get top 7 (I thought the players would be back in January). After today’s news I reckon we will be around 9th/10th. 

Being without European next season will be a blow. Top half is the bare minimum imo. 

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2 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

What’s everyone’s expectations now with the latest injury blows ? Top 4 was already gone for me, but I thought we would go on a run and get top 7 (I thought the players would be back in January). After today’s news I reckon we will be around 9th/10th. 

Dont think Bournemouth will keep going like thay have, but 10 looks likely.

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I'm not worried about the teams below us , we have had an injury ravaged season and we are still above them so we are better than them . Of the teams above us I reckon we are definitely still better than West Ham and no worse than Man United and Brighton , the top 5 has gone but no reason why we can't finish 6th or 7th.

 

 

Edited by Geogaddi

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22 hours ago, SUPERTOON said:

What’s everyone’s expectations now with the latest injury blows ? Top 4 was already gone for me, but I thought we would go on a run and get top 7 (I thought the players would be back in January). After today’s news I reckon we will be around 9th/10th. 


My opinion hasn't changed a huge amount over the course of the season. The top 4 hasn't been on the cards at any point; I'd argue that it would be an even bigger achievement than last season to do it again. 

 

Initial prediction was a pessimistic 9th which was supported by our slow start. Autumn made me think we'd be in the race for top 6 (with fleeting visions of Jamaal Lascelles holding the European Cup), but it's gradually become abundantly clear that there's no guarantees of anything this season. 

 

And that's fine; we'd played out of our skins for 18 months and it's caught up with us, further impacted by freak injuries (unrelated to cumulative over-exertion), the Tonali situation and the apparent inability to meaningfully reinforce the squad in the January window. 

 

If there wasn't the 'self-inflicted' pressure to qualify for Europe again then no one would be crying over an 8th placed finish. It's an extremely competitive league this season; literally everyone above the mostly awful bottom 3 are capable of very good results. 

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49 minutes ago, Yorkie said:

 

If there wasn't the 'self-inflicted' pressure to qualify for Europe again then no one would be crying over an 8th placed finish. It's an extremely competitive league this season; literally everyone above the mostly awful bottom 3 are capable of very good results. 

 

I've really liked this aspect about the league this season. It's a shame about the gulf in quality between the PL and Championship and that the promoted teams are basically fodder. But it feels like anyone could be up there in a way that's not been the case before. 

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22 hours ago, Aiston said:

Should have been top 7 minimum this season from the beginning, top 5 has gone but still can fight for top 7.

 

 

 

Nothing, in terms of reasonable preseason expectations, has gone yet. It’s just about probability. If we can put in a run comparable to the second half of Howe’s first season then 4-6th is still within our grasp. 
It boils down to how likely it is that we will.
Form very recently is against it, form/results earlier in the season and players coming back/the squad we have (on paper not recently all on grass!) suggests it is still possible. 

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Villa will probably be another bad day at the office but after that we've plenty there to go on a good run to finish off the season. Its actually pretty telling that we're still in touching distance of the top 7 after what, 1 win and 6 losses in our last 7 games? Any sort of run puts us right back in there. We absolutely have to get Europe every season now. 

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worry is we still have to visit Arsenal, Villa, Chelsea, Man Utd and quite tricky away games vs Palace, Brentford, to be fair even the lesser clubs aint easy way from home apart from 1-2 exceptions.

 

in return our home fixtures left way easier based on opponents , only Spurs and Brighton are the decent teams there maybe WHU.

 

if we can go on a home run at least and do decent in away games nicking a few wins (hard to see to be honest the latter part) we can make top6 still. top4 no way, 5th which may or may not worth CL spot, also no chance imo. 6th maybe, and anything possible between 7-10th.

United/Chelsea underperforming, Brighton, WHU overperforming, Villa overperforming by a lot, we are underperforming too, Spurs a bit over at least to to hat I felt before the season started...

 

unfortunately despite Chelsea being awful now they worked their point gap down and ahead of us too.

 

next 3 PL games:

Villa away

Luton home

Forest away

 

Luton and Forest just beat us in December, while Villa has one of the best home record so far with 9-1-0 standing and most goals scored at home so far.

will say a lot about the team of how we gonna come out of these games out of 9 points.

Luton at home is a must 3 pointer, Villa away a loss imo, Forest hopefully not worse than a draw but should be a win really. but would rate 4 points from 9 still quite poor if we actually wanna make top6.

 

2 weeks break now, then Fulham in the cup then these above 3 PL games.

 

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