The Europeometer™ (2023/24)

[Froggy]

7 minutes ago, mondonewc said:

I'm still half asleep and convinced you're trolling lol, but I'll bite, you obviously must see that suggesting Villa has a 5% chance of getting top 4 whilst being priced at 2/1 wildly doesn't add up? And yeah future results will have an effect on these odds, I agree

 

They're my percentages.  City are 8/13 to win the league but I'd give that a 99% chance. 

[The College Dropout]

IIRC Bruno had the highest Xa in the league but underperformed his actual Xa because team mates.

 

Rashford overperformed his Xg from memory.

 

So the two aren't as connected as Froggy is making out. Rashford was ruthless. The rest of the team was not.

[The College Dropout]

My hope for Villa is they run deep in the Conference but have tough ties. When they have to play their best team Sunday, Thurs, Sunday, Thurs performances will dip. 

[gbandit]

I think if we had not been laid low with injuries and not been in Europe then we’d get top 4 this season but I think it’ll be too much for us this year. This stretch of games until January is going to be a nightmare. I’m not going to be devastated if we don’t make it. This season is just about building the squad, trying to get to a final of a cup competition as a minimum and making as good a fist of it in the league and Europe. Anything below 7th in the league would be a serious disappointment however 

[The Prophet]

For ourselves, there too many unknowns to get a good grasp of what we can achieve. If we go into the new year within a reasonable distance of fourth, the injuries are clearing up and we're out of Europe, I'd rule nothing out. That's a lot of ifs though.

[mondonewc]

12 minutes ago, Froggy said:

 

They're my percentages.  City are 8/13 to win the league but I'd give that a 99% chance. 

Fair enough

[Froggy]

11 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

IIRC Bruno had the highest Xa in the league but underperformed his actual Xa because team mates.

 

Rashford overperformed his Xg from memory.

 

So the two aren't as connected as Froggy is making out. Rashford was ruthless. The rest of the team was not.

 

Rashford underperformed his xG. 

 

There's also the eye test, which is a big reason I really don't like xG. He is and always has been extremely wasteful, and that was the case last season despite it being a very good year for him.

[wormy]

8 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

Let’s not become a kaka tribute act. 

 

Goodness don't get so emotional.

[Dan Gleebals]

Very hard to predict where we will end up.  Injuries and then any business we might be able to do in January, will have a massive impact, as will the additional game in the CL and Cup.  We could be well out of it with further injuries.

December and January are monumental months in terms of Fixtures. 

 

By the end Jan we will have played Villa, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Man U and City at Home.  Away - City, BHA, West Ham, Spurs, Liverpool and Villa.  

 

That equates to 50% of our first 22 games being against the top 7 from last year.  So, going into Feb, our remaining 16 games look far easier than the first 22. 

 

IF we can win our next 3 home games against Manu, Fulham and Forrest and any kind of result against City - win against Everton and Luton away - and get any kind of result at Spurs, Liverpool and Villa, we should be in with a very good shout of top 5 this season...

The next 2 months are massive really.

[r0cafella]

4 minutes ago, wormy said:

 

Goodness don't get so emotional.

[Colos Short and Curlies]

I'm looking at this season as being this generations 94-95 season.

 

And we all know what happened next

[Matt1892]

No reason to think Villa won’t be there or thereabouts regarding pushing for champions league at the end of the season, the same for any of the current clubs in the top 7.

 

The only thing they haven’t had is a level of expectation on them during Emery’s time there, which is when points get dropped as the nerves kick in as you need to hold that position, which you seen with us and Arsenal last season.

[TRon]

I'm honestly surprised we are still in touching distance considering how many key players we've had missing. Thumping Chelsea was a welcome surprise.

[Erikse]

1 hour ago, gbandit said:

I think if we had not been laid low with injuries and not been in Europe then we’d get top 4 this season but I think it’ll be too much for us this year. This stretch of games until January is going to be a nightmare. I’m not going to be devastated if we don’t make it. This season is just about building the squad, trying to get to a final of a cup competition as a minimum and making as good a fist of it in the league and Europe. Anything below 7th in the league would be a serious disappointment however 

 

I'd say 7th would be disappointing aswell, because I know that we're amongst the 6 best teams in the league. Obviously without all the injuries then top 6 would be a given.

[mighty__mag]

Bit annoying that Villa have way better fixtures in terms of building consistency. 

 

Reminds me of us going on an unbeaten run a season or so back.

 

Just wonder if something could change for them if they lost a key player, Martinez, or Watkins. 

[Abacus]

2 hours ago, Froggy said:

 

We have no chance.

 

So, if you doubt Villa will have much chance as well, is it Spurs for that 4th slot?

 

I think it would take a hell of a turnaround for us to make top 4 given our squad right now. 

 

But Spurs seem catchable to me for one of us, you or Villa.

[Froggy]

14 minutes ago, Abacus said:

 

So, if you doubt Villa will have much chance as well, is it Spurs for that 4th slot?

 

I think it would take a hell of a turnaround for us to make top 4 given our squad right now. 

 

But Spurs seem catchable to me for one of us, you or Villa.

 

I was joking about us. Newcastle, Spurs and ourselves have or have had a lot of bad injuries/not played well and are still right up Villa's backside. 

 

I think Villa will finish 7th.

[Coffee_Johnny]

Given the talk re Villa and Man Utd, I talk it might be interesting to look at the points accrued taking account of the relative difficulty of fixtures to date. 
 

We are sitting in 7th, but taking this fixture difficulty into account (assumptions are in my NUFC tracking monthly updates) the points we’ve accumulated are in line in a fourth place finish (Ave PL season).
 

I haven’t taken the relative difficulty of their fixtures into account, but Villa, in 4th have accrued a points total (28) which would normally be what you’d expect of a second placed team. Man Utd, in 6th, have a points total (24) between 3rd and fourth place finish. 
 

However, using the four tiers (from NUFC prediction) to reflect the quality of opposite, shows that they have both had easier starts than us. We’ve played more Tier 1 teams and fewer Tier 4 teams than either. 

 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

People vastly underestimate the fixture list. The wheels will come off Man Utd before the end of the season for sure. 

[Froggy]

10 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

People vastly underestimate the fixture list. The wheels will come off Man Utd before the end of the season for sure. 

 

The wheels were off. They're slowly getting put back on.

[Froggy]

42 minutes ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

Given the talk re Villa and Man Utd, I talk it might be interesting to look at the points accrued taking account of the relative difficulty of fixtures to date. 
 

We are sitting in 7th, but taking this fixture difficulty into account (assumptions are in my NUFC tracking monthly updates) the points we’ve accumulated are in line in a fourth place finish (Ave PL season).
 

I haven’t taken the relative difficulty of their fixtures into account, but Villa, in 4th have accrued a points total (28) which would normally be what you’d expect of a second placed team. Man Utd, in 6th, have a points total (24) between 3rd and fourth place finish. 
 

However, using the four tiers (from NUFC prediction) to reflect the quality of opposite, shows that they have both had easier starts than us. We’ve played more Tier 1 teams and fewer Tier 4 teams than either. 

 

 

Out of curiosity, who decides what a tier 1, 2, 3 or 4 team is, and is there a list of teams in these tiers?

[gbandit]

1 minute ago, Froggy said:

 

The wheels were off. They're slowly getting put back on.

Have to disagree, there’s the potential that grinding out results could lead to more fluency in your play as confidence grows but I think the big question at this point is whether Ten Hag is able to achieve more than attritional wins consistently. When

you add in the squad disharmony and wasted money on people like Mount and Casemiro most likely from now on then it’s hard to get very excited about Man U’s remaining season 

[Optimistic Nut]

3 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

Any team that finishes 4th-5th will have spells like that though.

 

Aye but we just need to have like an above-good form to capitalise on it (like we have to get within distance of Spurs during their 3 game streak). 

[Kanji]

Just to be perfectly clear here, if we were fully fit (ish) so lets just assume Botman, Barnes, Willock, Isak/Wilson were available for our entire fixture list. I'm absolutely convinced we'd be 6 to 7 points better than we are right now. We've done pretty stellar fucking work on a bare bones squad with 12 first teamers out for essentially 1-2 months now. Had say we could bring on Barnes and Willock away to West Ham, Wolves....Isak/Wilson, Barnes v Bourmouth (starting/subs) we'd have taken max points. 

 

I'm not trying to include Tonali in this but if I did the point still stands.

 

We've done a marvelous job so far considering the opposition - testament to Howe and the players. the fixture list is piling the fuck up and sooner we get Botman, Barnes back the better. We need them. 

[Froggy]

1 minute ago, gbandit said:

Have to disagree, there’s the potential that grinding out results could lead to more fluency in your play as confidence grows but I think the big question at this point is whether Ten Hag is able to achieve more than attritional wins consistently. When

you add in the squad disharmony and wasted money on people like Mount and Casemiro most likely from now on then it’s hard to get very excited about Man U’s remaining season 

 

What squad disharmony? The only potential disruption at the minute is Varane, which nobody really knows the details of. Ten Hag has had the backing of the squad with every decision previous to this. There's certainly no visible squad disharmony on the pitch apart from individual issues like Rashford being a stroppy fucker.

 

Mount has played a handful of games due to injury, but he's only 24. Not even close to a flop so very silly to write him off as a waste of money. Casemiro remains to be seen, as he was one of our best performers last year despite being sloppy with discipline. He's our second top scorer this season behind Hojlund  struggling with injury at the minute though. Still far too early to write him off, given how important he was to a third place finish and trophy last season.

 

Friendly reminder about the amount of injuries/suspensions we've had. You can say what you like about squad depth or how much we've spent, but truth is our backups aren't great. A lot of our backup players have been ridiculed by opposition fans including many on here, so you don't get to turn around use them as an excuse as to why we should still be a top side. Against Everton we rode our luck again for a large period of the first half, but were at least clinical at the other end for the first time in a while.

 

At the same time Onana, Shaw (coming off a three month injury), Fernandes and Rashford were our only starting 11 players. An argument can maybe be made for Maguire but everyone knows Varane and Martinez are our best centre backs. In comparison, Newcastle had Pope, Trippier, Schar, Guimaraes, Joelinton, Gordon and Isak who are normally starters for you. I didn't include Almiron, but he could be one as well. You tell me.

 

We have started to get better, and will only continue to get stronger as players like Casemiro and Martinez return next year and the likes of Hojlund, Wan Bissaka, Shaw, Eriksen and Mount get back to full fitness.