McEwan Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Stifler said: Opta have us down as finishing 3rd on 69 points. It has Man City a point behind us, so obviously assumes that we’ll lose to Arsenal, and Man City will also lose a game. In what can only be seen as an error, they have Villa finishing 5th level on points with Chelsea, but Chelsea’s GD is much higher than Villa’s. They only have Forest down as drawing their next game, and presumably losing to Chelsea. The points predictions are averages of running thousands of simulations. So if Villa have a higher projected GD than Chelsea it just means that over the thousands of simulations, the average points total was higher. GD doesn't come into it at all. For the NUFC Arsenal game, they're assuming we'll get about 1 point on average (based on their projected probability of us winning, drawing or losing). Edited May 13 by McEwan Clarity Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GideonShandy Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 A hefty points reduction for City (or even a modest one) would make things a lot more comfortable. https://sport.optus.com.au/news/premier-league/os90077/manchester-city-charges-verdict-punishments-guilty Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GideonShandy Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 28 minutes ago, Stifler said: Opta have us down as finishing 3rd on 69 points. It has Man City a point behind us, so obviously assumes that we’ll lose to Arsenal, and Man City will also lose a game. In what can only be seen as an error, they have Villa finishing 5th level on points with Chelsea, but Chelsea’s GD is much higher than Villa’s. They only have Forest down as drawing their next game, and presumably losing to Chelsea. If you round the predicted points to the nearest whole number, Villa would be on 67 and Chelsea on 66. But how you square that with Chelsea having a 53% chance of CL and Villa only 42, I can't imagine. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 4 minutes ago, GideonShandy said: If you round the predicted points to the nearest whole number, Villa would be on 67 and Chelsea on 66. But how you square that with Chelsea having a 53% chance of CL and Villa only 42, I can't imagine. Maybe you just don't do rounding and goal difference is probably factored in? Hate these things overall tbh. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellis H Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 1 hour ago, Colos Short and Curlies said: I'm not convinced that City will beat both Bournemouth and Fulham and can see Southampton getting something against Arsenal last day the way Arsenal have been playing recently. So even a draw on Sunday and I think 2nd is a real possibility If Villa and Chelsea win on Friday, Man City will be 6th heading into their game so the pressure will really be on. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 1 hour ago, Colos Short and Curlies said: I'm not convinced that City will beat both Bournemouth and Fulham and can see Southampton getting something against Arsenal last day the way Arsenal have been playing recently. So even a draw on Sunday and I think 2nd is a real possibility If it was at Southampton maaaybe after last week, but reckon it's still highly unlikely Arsenal don't beat Southampton at home. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 2 minutes ago, Superior Acuña said: If it was at Southampton maaaybe after last week, but reckon it's still highly unlikely Arsenal don't beat Southampton at home. It is at Southampton. Not that it really makes a great deal of difference IMO. Credit to them for holding Man City, but they did get absolutely battered and would have lost that game 90% of the time. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 17 minutes ago, SteV said: It is at Southampton. Not that it really makes a great deal of difference IMO. Credit to them for holding Man City, but they did get absolutely battered and would have lost that game 90% of the time. Oh aye of course. Getting their away game with Leicester confused in my head. But aye, still, very unlikely. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Fair chance several teams finish on 69 points. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beren Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 1 hour ago, GideonShandy said: A hefty points reduction for City (or even a modest one) would make things a lot more comfortable. https://sport.optus.com.au/news/premier-league/os90077/manchester-city-charges-verdict-punishments-guilty Completely forgot about this! Coiled like Stone Cold about to deliver a stunner! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groundhog63 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 My ideal is still Forest and Villa getting 4th and 5th. Us 3rd, obvs, but if Carling made my ideals we'd be 2nd 😂 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexf Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 There are still too many variables for me. Yes in theory and based on form this season we should get 3 points from Everton or maybe even possibly Arsenal. But it's the end of the season, most players look like they are running on empty, we have more injuries hitting, and going into one last game needing to win does create a different mentality for the players and crowd. We could go for it against Arsenal and come up short but what if we picked up a few more injuries to key players or a suspension etc. Still just too much up in the air for me to say with any confidence we are definitely there. Really hope we turn up at Arsenal and get it done there. The idea of a nervy 0-0 with Everton trying to break them down going into the last few minutes would be horrific. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erikse Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 (edited) 8 minutes ago, alexf said: There are still too many variables for me. Yes in theory and based on form this season we should get 3 points from Everton or maybe even possibly Arsenal. But it's the end of the season, most players look like they are running on empty, we have more injuries hitting, and going into one last game needing to win does create a different mentality for the players and crowd. We could go for it against Arsenal and come up short but what if we picked up a few more injuries to key players or a suspension etc. Still just too much up in the air for me to say with any confidence we are definitely there. Really hope we turn up at Arsenal and get it done there. The idea of a nervy 0-0 with Everton trying to break them down going into the last few minutes would be horrific. I'm still having anxiety about those last 10 min of the Leicester 0-0 game 2 years ago. We were absolutely smashing them up until that point, and they had nothing. Last 10 min we decided to "be smart" by passing it around the back instead, and lost the ball there couple of times only to concede big chances. Pope had to make a crazy save in the end. Edited May 13 by Erikse Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Surely Villa will have one result like our loss at Man U late in the season? (Wishful thinking) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexf Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 9 minutes ago, Erikse said: I'm still having anxiety about those last 10 min of the Leicester 0-0 game 2 years ago. We were absolutely smashing them up until that point, and they had nothing. Last 10 min we decided to "be smart" by passing it around the back instead, and lost the ball there couple of times only to concede big chances. Pope had to make a crazy save in the end. Exactly. However I'm trying to tell myself that since then we have grown as a team and won a hell of a lot of "big games" when we needed to, not least the cup final. So I know we can do it, but would much prefer it not to reach the stress levels of that Leicester game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 4 hours ago, Mazzy said: Our Kryptonite does certainly seem to be any teams between 8th and 12th. Most of the season our away record was better than our home record, thankfully since Bournemouth & Fulham we've been shit hot at home and we've got the 3rd best home record in the league now. I'm sure before I spat my dummy out and deleted my account I posted we should aim for around 40 points at home and 30 away and we'll get CL and we're not far off that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erikse Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 (edited) 11 minutes ago, alexf said: Exactly. However I'm trying to tell myself that since then we have grown as a team and won a hell of a lot of "big games" when we needed to, not least the cup final. So I know we can do it, but would much prefer it not to reach the stress levels of that Leicester game. I'm a bit conflicted about it aswell, because while what you are saying was true, I did see the thing of losing control when trying to play it safe vs Chelsea. I think we got pretty scared after their dangerous counters in the first half. We somehow tend to get it over the line in the end anyways, but I'm getting heart attacks in the process of it. Edited May 13 by Erikse Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackie Broon Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said: Surely Villa will have one result like our loss at Man U late in the season? (Wishful thinking) Can't see it happening, they're playing the two worst sides outside of the relegated teams who have absolutely nothing to play for and no interest in the league. Edited May 13 by Jackie Broon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 20 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said: Surely Villa will have one result like our loss at Man U late in the season? (Wishful thinking) Don't they have a pretty abysmal record at Old Trafford themselves? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 4 minutes ago, Jackie Broon said: Can't see it happening, they're playing the two worst sides outside of the relegated teams who have absolutely nothing to play for and no interest in the league. We've just seen Southampton hold Man City mind. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MagPar Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 If Man City avoid a hefty points deduction then football is dead,it just screams of corruption. If they get away with a fine then we should spend as much as we want and accept any fine that comes our way. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilliamPS Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Freak results do happen, but that’s what Spurs or Man Utd taking points off Villa or Chelsea would be. Of the games I think Spurs getting a point away at Villa as the most likely as I think Spurs will play a decent side. It’s clutching at straws though. Villa may have had a historically bad record at Old Trafford but honestly I think that is the easiest fixture possible on the final day - whether they win the Europa or not. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackie Broon Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 7 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said: We've just seen Southampton hold Man City mind. Yeah, but they had something to play for, to get more than 11 points and their better players will be motivated to get moves. Arguably, the relegated teams are more dangerous opponents than Spurs and Man U at the moment. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikon Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 First of all I don’t think it will come to that but let’s say it does hypothetically . If we struggle to go a couple of goals up against Everton quite early on when we have to win, I don’t think I would survive watching us hanging on to a say 1-0 lead where we sit deep and struggle for control and getting out of our own third. It would kill me Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keegans Export Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 2 hours ago, GideonShandy said: A hefty points reduction for City (or even a modest one) would make things a lot more comfortable. https://sport.optus.com.au/news/premier-league/os90077/manchester-city-charges-verdict-punishments-guilty 1 hour ago, Beren said: Completely forgot about this! Coiled like Stone Cold about to deliver a stunner! No chance they get a points deduction this season, next season at the earliest. Might help our title challenge... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now