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The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)


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  On 22/01/2023 at 22:56, Solitude20 said:

Liverpool, Chelsea, and Spurs are all having a bad season, and this makes the CL target easier than your regular season. They might bounce back next season and make the CL qualification more difficult even if we get new players in. That’s why IMO this season is such a golden opportunity to get back to CL football, and I hope we see some great additions to the squad before the end of the window. 

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I'd wager it'll still end up being around the same amount of points that guarantees you top four.

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  On 22/01/2023 at 22:40, Miercoles said:

 

That 0-0 at their place is looking better and better every week.

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It was fairly even until about 70 in when Mitoma came on. fwiw, the chance we had when Miggy played in Wilson was actually onside, and would have stood if Wilson had scored. Since he didn't, VAR wasn't used and it gets ignored as a big chance created/xG.

 

Just on our defence, but

Arsenal home xG vs. Man U =2.93 (77 minutes of which was Arsenal drawing or losing and needing a goal)

Arsenal home xG vs. NUFC =0.94 (90 minutes of which was Arsenal drawing and needing a goal)

 

Given what Saka did yesterday to England's left back, what does this say about Dan Burn? I know we adjusted within 10 minutes to help him, but Saka didn't have a sniff against us.

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  On 22/01/2023 at 22:56, Solitude20 said:

Liverpool, Chelsea, and Spurs are all having a bad season, and this makes the CL target easier than your regular season. They might bounce back next season and make the CL qualification more difficult even if we get new players in. That’s why IMO this season is such a golden opportunity to get back to CL football, and I hope we see some great additions to the squad before the end of the window. 

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i agree. Massive opportunity to take advantage. Imo it’s a “must” to strengthen now if the right players are available. Hopefully this happens. 

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  On 22/01/2023 at 22:56, Solitude20 said:

Liverpool, Chelsea, and Spurs are all having a bad season, and this makes the CL target easier than your regular season. They might bounce back next season and make the CL qualification more difficult even if we get new players in. That’s why IMO this season is such a golden opportunity to get back to CL football, and I hope we see some great additions to the squad before the end of the window. 

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Agreed. We really need to capitalize while we can as this opportunity may not come along for another few years. Would be such a waste not to go big in these next few days. 

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End of January update to ‘top-ten tracker’ created in June. Thought I’d put it here as well as original thread, as I’ve added 4th place averages. The original, charts where we would be most likely to pick-up points based on strength of opposition (last season’s finishing position) and home/away advantage. We’re 9pts ahead of that original target. I’ve assumed the re-arranged West Ham away will take place in March. 

 

Given the top ten hopes have become irrelevant (hallelujah!) I’ve added the average points totals for 4th place in the PL (68 pts based on a 38 game season), the maximum total for 4th (79pts, Arsenal 2013-14) and minimum (60pts, Liverpool 2003-4). We’re currently one point ahead of the average. 
8B3AC850-8F32-46D8-8776-B4CA9AFC92A3.thumb.jpeg.ebe138590dd5eec16bb78c10855fdb4c.jpeg

 

 

Edited by Coffee_Johnny

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I think we'll get a clear picture of both of our teams in the next five league games.

 

We have Palace (H), Leeds (H), Leeds (A), Leicester (H), Brentford (H).

 

You have West Ham (H), Bournemouth (A), Liverpool (H), Brighton (H), Man City (A). 

 

How many points would you boys expect from those 5? 

 

 

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  On 23/01/2023 at 12:39, Froggy said:

I think we'll get a clear picture of both of our teams in the next five league games.

 

We have Palace (H), Leeds (H), Leeds (A), Leicester (H), Brentford (H).

 

You have West Ham (H), Bournemouth (A), Liverpool (H), Brighton (H), Man City (A). 

 

How many points would you boys expect from those 5? 

 

 

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I'd expect 7 at least for us.

 

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  On 23/01/2023 at 12:39, Froggy said:

I think we'll get a clear picture of both of our teams in the next five league games.

 

We have Palace (H), Leeds (H), Leeds (A), Leicester (H), Brentford (H).

 

You have West Ham (H), Bournemouth (A), Liverpool (H), Brighton (H), Man City (A). 

 

How many points would you boys expect from those 5? 

 

 

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8-10

West Ham - Win

Bournemouth - Win

Liverpool - Win

Brighton - Draw

City - Lose

 

 

Edited by NWMag

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I was thinking 8 would be solid for Newcastle. I'll be disappointed with any less than 15. :lol: 12 maybe more realistic but we have to be winning all of those home games.

 

I'm still thinking about Spurs and Liverpool. Hoping to create an even bigger gap after the next five games. It helps that we've played both Arsenal and City twice.

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  On 23/01/2023 at 12:45, Froggy said:

I was thinking 8 would be solid for Newcastle. I'll be disappointed with any less than 15. :lol: 12 maybe more realistic but we have to be winning all of those home games.

 

I'm still thinking about Spurs and Liverpool. Hoping to create an even bigger gap after the next five games. It helps that we've played both Arsenal and City twice.

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Yeah, 7 probably for us. I reckon 12 for you after that little run.

 

It depends how you react after yesterday, as that (probably) puts title talk to bed. Ten Hag is decent, though, so I can't see any collapse coming. To be fair, I don't see either team collapsing, for us the issue is much more about being able to unlock teams setting up to defend.

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  On 23/01/2023 at 12:39, Froggy said:

I think we'll get a clear picture of both of our teams in the next five league games.

 

We have Palace (H), Leeds (H), Leeds (A), Leicester (H), Brentford (H).

 

You have West Ham (H), Bournemouth (A), Liverpool (H), Brighton (H), Man City (A). 

 

How many points would you boys expect from those 5? 

 

 

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16. Plus 1 for the goal difference improvement 

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  On 23/01/2023 at 12:52, Abacus said:

Yeah, 7 probably for us. I reckon 12 for you after that little run.

 

It depends how you react after yesterday, as that (probably) puts title talk to bed. Ten Hag is decent, though, so I can't see any collapse coming. To be fair, I don't see either team collapsing, for us the issue is much more about being able to unlock teams setting up to defend.

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Yeah I'm hoping there's no fallout from yesterday. It was an expected loss but it could have been much, much worse. I think 3-2 flattered us. 

 

The media were desperate for us to join the title race. Glad that's nipped in the bud. We aren't winning a title with Wout Weghorst as the only striker option. :lol:

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  On 23/01/2023 at 12:59, Froggy said:

 

Yeah I'm hoping there's no fallout from yesterday. It was an expected loss but it could have been much, much worse. I think 3-2 flattered us. 

 

The media were desperate for us to join the title race. Glad that's nipped in the bud. We aren't winning a title with Wout Weghorst as the only striker option. :lol:

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Are you guys having any belief that the Europa League is winnable and thus, an entry into the Champions League? Ten Haag seems like someone who can bring a cup trophies for you lot (just hopefully not the League Cup mind :lol:)

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  On 23/01/2023 at 13:27, nufcjb said:

Are you guys having any belief that the Europa League is winnable and thus, an entry into the Champions League? Ten Haag seems like someone who can bring a cup trophies for you lot (just hopefully not the League Cup mind :lol:)

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It's definitely winnable, but I don't think many of us expect to get past Barca. It would be class to win a trophy this season but the league is always the most important IMO. It would be very nice to win a trophy mind, whether that's the EL, FA Cup or League Cup.

 

I wouldn't be completely gutted to go out of the Europa League mind. It's a lot of extra games and we don't have the biggest squad. The Barca games are coming in between very winnable league games. If there's to be any rotation I'd want it in the European games.

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