The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

[Paullow]

48 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

For us to finish 7th, Forest would need to beat West Ham and Chelsea and we'd need to lose to Arsenal and Everton.

 

For that to be Europa Conference, Palace would need to win the FA Cup final.

 

It's not impossible of course, but given the form of all concerned, it seems unlikely.

 

If we beat Everton (or Arsenal) then it 99.9% doesn't matter what the others do, unless Villa went suspiciously goal crazy, so I assumed the person I was quoting had doubts of this by wanting Forest to win this weekend to keep them competitive heading into the Chelsea match. 

 

A draw in the final 2 matches would guarantee top 6 and at least Europa, but if we lose Arsenal, which I suspect we will, and that Everton match kind of mirrors the Leicester match of 2 years ago where we can't score, and then give the opponent a glorious chance out of nowhere, then at that stage we'd probably have hoped Forest dropped points at the earliest opportunity, but we'll of course know one part of the sequence before we and Forest both next play.

 

 

Edited yesterday at 09:11 by Paullow

[WinstonFC]

Villa or Chelsea will drop points tomorrow night cos ive lumped on both to win 

[Weznufc]

38 minutes ago, WinstonFC said:

Villa or Chelsea will drop points tomorrow night cos ive lumped on both to win 

Please happen 🤞🤞

[AyeDubbleYoo]

41 minutes ago, WinstonFC said:

Villa or Chelsea will drop points tomorrow night cos ive lumped on both to win 

 

Thank you for your sacrifice. 

[The College Dropout]

1 hour ago, huss9 said:

so glad forest chelsea and villa all play before us.

advantage us.

Makes no difference. We have 2 match points regardless.

[huss9]

5 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Makes no difference. We have 2 match points regardless.

psychologically could make a massive difference

[The College Dropout]

5 minutes ago, huss9 said:

psychologically could make a massive difference

 

We are favourites regardless. 

 

We are going to Arsenal to keep it tight and try to nick one with carefully timed pressing and counters regardless. We'll settle for a draw regardless. And we'll go into Everton trying to win.

[The Fountain]

10 hours ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

 

But if that happened Chelsea could end up below us as well. 

Not if Chelsea beat Spurs by a good score. 

[The Fountain]

3 minutes ago, The Fountain said:

Not if Chelsea beat Spurs by a good score. 

I mean Man Utd 

[Benwell Lad]

Can't wait to be not looking at this thread.

[Superior Acuña]

2 hours ago, The Fountain said:

Not if Chelsea beat Spurs by a good score. 

 

He said 'could'. Given that scenario also requires Chelsea losing to Forest, odds are probably our GD would not be worse than theirs. Suffice to say the collection of circumstances required for us to finish 7th are possible but pretty remote!

[Dr Venkman]

13 hours ago, JLC said:

Oddschecker.com has us at 1/25 for a top 5 finish

Mad that, especially when it’s guaranteed all of our rivals will win all of their games.

 

Really makes you think.

 

[ExiledGeordie]

We’re obviously hoping that either Chelsea or Villa drop points tonight (unlikely but you never know) or that we can somehow pull off a win on Sunday which would be amazing. But it’s almost certainly going to come down to us putting Everton away on Sunday. That could be a tough fixture as they’ve picked up recently but I’m still confident of this team and its mentality having the composure to get the job done. 
 

(There’s obviously other squeaky bum situations relying on the final Forest match but we don’t want to go there at all!)

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by ExiledGeordie

[PRL]

What is absolutely insane is that a spurs and Man Utd double is over 50s. £20 on that and it comes in would be a pretty lovely day. Of course I’ve lumped on the Chelsea Villa double to ensure it doesn’t happen

[t00nt00n313]

Dunno why but I feel like at least one result will go our way this weekend.

 

If we say there's a small 20% chance of us beating arsenal, a 20% chance of man u drawing or beating Chelsea, and a 20% chance of spurs drawing or beating villa.

 

Individually those are all unlikely to go our way but collectively there's a 50% chance (if my maths is right) of at least one of those things happening and just one of those would be huge.

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by t00nt00n313

[Paully]

At least one of Villa or Chelsea are dropping points tonight!

[SteV]

Feel like Spurs are the most likely to field a minging line-up tonight. Man Utd probably just about have enough to depth to rest a couple of those available and still have a semi-decent team out. Don’t think that’s the case with Spurs.

[Nucasol]

19 minutes ago, Paully said:

At least one of Villa or Chelsea are dropping points tonight!

[Andy84]

24 minutes ago, Paully said:

At least one of Villa or Chelsea are dropping points tonight!

Nah. Man Utd and Spurs are an absolute joke 

[Abacus]

I'll be watching the games tonight more in hope than anything else.

 

For all that players will be concentrating on the final, surely a few will want to come in and stake a claim to be playing in it? And surely neither will want to go into it on the back of a hammering either.

 

Anyway, while yes there's always a chance, like most, I do think in reality it's all most likely to go down to the last game.

[GallowgatePigeon]

There is absolutley no danger of Man Utd or Spurs doing us any favours, they effectivley forfeited the league in Feb/Mar.

 

The good news is that since Eddie's come in, we've become better at getting ourselves over the line when we need to, this season especially.

 

It'd be nice for one of those useless fucks to help us out tonight, but I have every faith that we'll take care of business ourselves anyway.

[ramirez]

2 hours ago, t00nt00n313 said:

Dunno why but I feel like at least one result will go our way this weekend.

 

If we say there's a small 20% chance of us beating arsenal, a 20% chance of man u drawing or beating Chelsea, and a 20% chance of spurs drawing or beating villa.

 

Individually those are all unlikely to go our way but collectively there's a 50% chance (if my maths is right) of at least one of those things happening and just one of those would be huge.

 

 

 

you are right as the double of villa and chelsea is 4/5 which added with arsenal double chance bumps it to 6/5 which make it less than 50% chance of happening

[Abacus]

Looking at it again, I'll probably just be watching for a laugh. 

 

I suppose there's always a chance Caicedo just runs around kicking lumps out of people again and a ref finally sends him off, which would be nice.

[alexf]

Dunno where 20% chance is coming from for Man U or Spurs. I'd say 99.9% chance of loss. Neither team give a shit about the league and certainly not with both worried about more injuries. 

 

We can't cry about it however as we already took 12 points off both of them so we can't begrudge others playing them. I was more annoyed at the likes of Liverpool, Fulhamand Bournemouth who all took loads of points off us yet didn't turn up against Chelsea and Villa.

 

Just need to take care of our own business. 

 

[Monters]

Despite Man U being a pale imitation of themselves I still think Amorim needs to and will pull a league from somewhere... blind faith I suppose!

The Aussie at Spurs is win or bust for the final so can't see them doing anything in either league game other than losing by two in each or worse