The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Sibierski]

The period after this international break is when the games start to ramp up and Europe does have an impact. This is where we need to take advantage of having no Europe, especially if it’s against sides who have played in Europe.

 

Like Villa yesterday for example where done after their European game, but had a terrible Man Utd side. If that’s us playing, I’d expect a high tempo where it can’t be matched across the 90. 

 

We’ve been poor, but if season starts now, it’s a good base to start from as the points are on the board. Keeping Isak fit for rest of season and having Wilson back to chip in is the key to getting top 5 though. Without those, there’s no chance as we’re not technically savvy enough to get through games without a striker and win, as we don’t control the ball well.

[Froggy]

16 minutes ago, Sibierski said:

Like Villa yesterday for example where done after their European game, but had a terrible Man Utd side

 

We had an away European game this week and had a day less rest than them. Let's not forget that.

[RodneyCisse]

28 minutes ago, Froggy said:

 

We had an away European game this week and had a day less rest than them. Let's not forget that.

Very true, Porto away too.

[Froggy]

1 minute ago, RodneyCisse said:

Very true, Porto away too.

 

Former Champions League winners. Arguably the best side in the world tbh.

[Vaj]

45 minutes ago, Froggy said:

 

We had an away European game this week and had a day less rest than them. Let's not forget that.

Mental fatigue more than anything at this stage. The highs of winning your first game back at home in Europe's premier competition late on to then having to play the dross that is Man Utd, difficult to motivate yourself to go again. 

[STM]

Let's not bullshit. Man United got a good result at Villa, who were underwhelming on the day.

 

Which is great because it keeps ETH in a job just a wee bit longer.

 

 

[Abacus]

I think we're slowly clicking into place. Poised very well in the league now points wise, with Isak back (hopefully) after the international break. Europe is very possible indeed, with a cup run giving us another chance.

[Kid Icarus]

7 minutes ago, STM said:

Let's not bullshit. Man United got a good result at Villa, who were underwhelming on the day.

 

Which is great because it keeps ETH in a job just a wee bit longer.

 

 

 

Absolutely. Was delighted when I logged into the PL app this morning and was greeted with this.

 

 

And round and round we go.

[Vaj]

4 minutes ago, Abacus said:

I think we're slowly clicking into place. Poised very well in the league now points wise, with Isak back (hopefully) after the international break. Europe is very possible indeed, with a cup run giving us another chance.

Yeah I agree, frustrating that we couldn't get the three points which would have seen us go level with 4th but it is a decent start as long as we start kicking into gear. Still feel like the season can go one of two ways but there is a decent chance that Europe will be 8th so we should be getting at least that in my opinion. 

[jigen]

You haven't european matches and this is a great advantage. 

For me you have better chances than Aston Villa and Tottenham. I see a race between you, Chelsea and Man Utd for one (or two if this year PL will have 5 CL teams) places. 

[BonesJones]

To save me searching is it now established which league positions, qualify for which tournaments next season?

[SteV]

9 minutes ago, BonesJones said:

To save me searching is it now established which league positions, qualify for which tournaments next season?

Nah, fifth could be CL depending on how English teams do this seasons.

[Paully]

Huge run of games coming up! 

[BonesJones]

12 hours ago, SteV said:

Nah, fifth could be CL depending on how English teams do this seasons.

 

And if that was to happen the Europa spots would drop down one place?

[Keegans Export]

4 minutes ago, BonesJones said:

 

And if that was to happen the Europa spots would drop down one place?

That's right. I'd be;

1st - 5th Champions League 

6th Europa League 

7th Conference League 

 

Could drop down another place if one of the Top Five win the FA Cup I think.

[geordie_b]

1 hour ago, Paully said:

Huge run of games coming up! 

Yup, feels like today could be a season definer

[SteV]

2 hours ago, BonesJones said:

 

And if that was to happen the Europa spots would drop down one place?

Yeah, I’m sure there’s various other scenarios that could have an effect, but as a general rule, yeah.

[Coffee_Johnny]

End of October update on how the points accrued from the 9 games thus far compares to what we might expect a team finishing in the top six to have managed. This takes into account relative difficulty of the games (based mainly on last season's finishing position and whether home or away).

 

 

It will come as no surprise to see that with 12 points from 9 games, we are 4 points off track. This is because we have only picked up one point in October, when 6 were expected. Whilst this prediction formula has been pretty accurate for last couple of seasons, with so few games it is volatile/easily changeable. For example, at end of September we were one point ahead (11) at end of what we would expect from a team on track to finish fourth (10 points given same fixture difficulty).

[54]

Going into this run of games:

 

West Ham (H) - 14th

Crystal Palace (A) - 18th

Liverpool (H) - 1st

Brentford (A) - 11th

Leicester (H) - 15th

Ipswich (A) - 17th 

 

With some momentum is massive, and could decide what we're competing for come the end of the season. If we can get 12 to 15 points from that run, we'll be laughing. 

[Superior Acuña]

I'm sure it's unusually tight even for this stage? 1 point between 3rd and 9th. Mad if we'd won against Brighton or Everton we'd be clear in third. 

 

I fancy the current top 4 to be the top 4 at the end. We're quite well placed for fifth. Good chance the 3 straight above (Forest, Fulham, Brighton) fall away. Could well be a shoot out between us, Villa, Spurs and ManU for 5th, and we're above those 3 (well effectively level with Villa).

 

 

Edited November 10 by Superior Acuña

[Dokko]

We all thinking the break has come at the wrong time for us? Suppose had we lost then we'd be saying it was bad to break and stew. So basically int football is shit either way.

 

I'm going to go with it's good for us. Planned break to Saudi.. Some nice warm weather, bit of sun and chance to keep working on those small changes. 

[SUPERTOON]

23 minutes ago, Dokko said:

We all thinking the break has come at the wrong time for us? Suppose had we lost then we'd be saying it was bad to break and stew. So basically int football is shit either way.

 

I'm going to go with it's good for us. Planned break to Saudi.. Some nice warm weather, bit of sun and chance to keep working on those small changes. 

Wilson and Trippier apparently back for West Ham as well (won’t hold my breath over Wilson mind).

[Miggys First Goal]

Doesn’t Wilson always score when we play West Ham?

[Sibierski]

That West Ham game is one where I fancy us to win by 5+ and we start to get back towards the GD we’ve seen under Howe.

 

Think as long as we keep getting say on average 8 points from 15 at worse (2 wins 2 draws 1 defeat or 3 wins 2 defeats) we’ll get top 6. Not many sides are looking capable of going on sustained runs, so an above average run can see us get top 6, which with no Europe should be achievable. 

[dcmk]

I keep looking at the table and thinking we should have 5 more points - from the Brighton and the Everton game.  

 

Conveniently forgetting how lucky we were at the start of the season.