The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Geogaddi]

Villa are similar to us last season, although we were in a much worse position when Howe came in than they were when Unai came in. I can definitely see them challenging the top 6-8 next season, would take a total collapse from us and for them to win more or less every game for them to finish above us this season though.

 

 

Edited April 4, 2023 by Geogaddi

[SUPERTOON]

Brighton will have a massive say (and are still right in the race for it as well). I think they walk through spurs on the weekend, our game against them should be brilliant.

[Abacus]

Ultimately, 3 teams on 50 points, with us miles ahead of both on goal difference.

 

Spurs imploding, Man U rebuilding - it's us who are all going in one direction on and off-field that I'd fear as a rival fan.

 

Think we can smash at least one of these two. What an actually fun season this is!

[TheInfiniteOdyssey]

Tottenham are only in the position they are now because they have a truly world-class striker. 
 

Bentancur’s injury was unfortunate, but Son’s decline has been extraordinary. 
 

The rest of their squad just really isn’t particularly strong or well-structured.

[Guest]

 

[Stottie]

1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

65 points has only been enough for 4th twice in the last 10 years and the team that got 4th got more points than that.  

 

Aye. 6W, 2D, 3L even feels like too many defeats based on our performance this season. 5W, 5D, 1L also achievable.

 

Keep everybody fit and I think we do it.

 

I think we'll get 70 or close in keeping with our form for the whole season. We should stay on a roll with pretty much everyone fit. I think 65 plus GD would probably be enough for fourth though. I can't see Spurs getting any more than that with no manager. They have six of their nine remaining games against the current top nine, their record against them so far is P10 W2 D1 L7.

 

Liverpool finished the season two years ago with eight wins and two draws, to rise up the table and knock out Leicester. They still have the attacking talent, but the rest of the team is creaking. Liverpool need 23 pts off 11 games, effectively seven wins, just to reach 65 points. They do better against strong teams, and have Chelsea and Arsenal up next, so maybe it can give them some momentum. As it is, they average less than one point per away game.

 

I see us third and Man U or Brighton fourth as most likely. 

[Froggy]

1 hour ago, gjohnson said:

it's unfortunate for Froggy that goal difference may well cost them a top4 spot this year. 

 

I would be dismayed if we don't get CL football next season after the position we've put ourselves in with the fixtures remaining. Thankfully, we have two shots at it now with the Europa League as well.

 

I still expect to finish third, but genuinely don't care if it's third or fourth. I can revisit this comment at the end of the week, but 6 points against Brentford and Everton is an absolute must. If we drop points this week I would start to feel a little bit tense.

 

[Guest]

If we reach 70 points and miss out on top 4, you hold your hands up to whoever has beaten us because that'll take some effort. 

[Interpolic]

You'd think the required total will be a bit less than average this year. No 1 or 2 sides marooned at the bottom dishing out points to everyone, our rivals all a bit flaky etc.

 

Points are being distributed more evenly, or so it seems. I guess the top 2 not being as formidable as recent years might affect matters a touch, if they're dropping points our rivals pick up. 

[TRon]

4 hours ago, Abacus said:

 

I love this sort of thing.

 

But seriously, a totally different team without Casemiro.

 

I actually thought they missed wan Bissaka as much as anyone, considering he shackled ASM pretty well in the cup final, and he ran riot against Dalot in this fixture.

[McCormick]

I’ve got us finishing on 66 points with the games we have left. Reckon it’s going to be really tight; looking likely that we’ll need something from the Chelsea game on the final day to secure that CL spot. Just gave myself anxiety thinking about it  .

[samptime29]

Howay Chelsea. If they can avoid defeat against Liverpool it's a good result for us.

[Guest]

If we'd had Isak available all season, or at least fully match fit straight after the World Cup, I don't think it'd even be in question we'd have around 56-58 points at least. 

[RodneyCisse]

4 hours ago, GWN said:

 

constantly threw stuff down on us , hanging over L7 goading us giving it V’s all the time , honestly mate they were utter wankers the whole game . Then proceeded to take offence after we scored and got a kid thrown out for fuck all but sour grapes .

 

im a big fan of the Man U fans normally as they sing like fuck but Sunday they were classless and utter cunts to a man 

I heard from someone who sits behind the goal in leazes with his grandkids had chewing gum, coins, all sorts thrown down.

[Paullow]

39 minutes ago, McCormick said:

I’ve got us finishing on 66 points with the games we have left. Reckon it’s going to be really tight; looking likely that we’ll need something from the Chelsea game on the final day to secure that CL spot. Just gave myself anxiety thinking about it  .

Yeah, that's the kind of points total that I'm thinking. 5W 1D 5L, 4W 4D 3L, or possibly more likely in line with our season 3W 7D 1L would generally / normally be a fairly disappointing return given our form since Jan 2022, but I think it's kind of par with the pretty tough fixtures that we have remaining. The next 3 (away) games will be crucial - if we get 6/7/9 points then we should really hit 70 points quite comfortably, but if it's more like 0/1/2/3 then it may be a struggle to even get 66.

 

We are around the 6/5 to beat West Ham and Brentford (no odds for Villa yet, but will probably be a bit closer I think), so we're considered the more likely of the two to win, but at the same time, not odds on, so there's more chance of us not winning than winning (West Ham double chance would be around 4/6).

 

If we do end up with 70 points then I'm pretty sure we will finish in the top 4. Spurs would need at least 20 points from 9 games, Liverpool would need 28 from 11, Brighton would need 27 from 12, and I wouldn't even consider Brentford in that scenario. Teams can put runs together, and Liverpool did a few years ago to salvage their season, but I think the league is a bit different now. There's too many better teams now. Chelsea have struggled, but could beat many on their day, we are much stronger, and games against the Brighton's and Villa's are much tougher now, so it's really hard for a team (not named Man City) to string 8/9 wins out of 11 or so.

 

 

Edited April 4, 2023 by Paullow

[Coffee_Johnny]

4 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

65 points has only been enough for 4th twice in the last 10 years and the team that got 4th got more points than that.  

 

Aye. 6W, 2D, 3L even feels like too many defeats based on our performance this season. 5W, 5D, 1L also achievable.

 

Keep everybody fit and I think we do it.

There haven’t been any 65 point fourth place finishes in the last 10 years.
4th points total has been (going backwards):

Spurs 71, Chelsea 67, Chelsea 66, Spurs 71, Liverpool 75, Liverpool 76, Man City 66, Man United 70, Arsenal 79, Arsenal 73. 

The average for 4th, over 29 PL seasons, is 68 points. 
 

59 points at the end of April and, given the number of games per month, we’re on track for that. 

 

 

Edited April 4, 2023 by Coffee_Johnny

[Kid Icarus]

79 points and finishing 4th is wild like. That wins the league in 96/97, 97/98, 98/99 and gets second plenty of times even recently. 

[samptime29]

6 wins 1 draw 4 losses. Gets us to 69 points with a good goal difference likely.

[wormy]

Just realised it's Chelsea-Liverpool tonight.

 

As dirty as it feels, I assume we're all hoping for a Potterless bounce to get Chelsea a draw at least?

[samptime29]

Just now, wormy said:

Just realised it's Chelsea-Liverpool tonight.

 

As dirty as it feels, I assume we're all hoping for a Potterless bounce to get Chelsea a draw at least?

 

For sure. 

[mikejaxer]

7 minutes ago, wormy said:

Just realised it's Chelsea-Liverpool tonight.

 

As dirty as it feels, I assume we're all hoping for a Potterless bounce to get Chelsea a draw at least?

Ah, a mid-table midoff. Truly one of the match ups of all time.

 

I'd be fine with a Chelsea win or a draw.

[BonesJones]

22 minutes ago, samptime29 said:

6 wins 1 draw 4 losses. Gets us to 69 points with a good goal difference likely.

So more losses than we've had all season?

[samptime29]

6 minutes ago, BonesJones said:

So more losses than we've had all season?

 

Not saying its likely but it shows can we afford to lose a few if we turn draws into wins. 

[Stottie]

Liverpool are shite away from home, 12 points from 14 games, but usually do well against Chelsea. Chelsea may also attack them, which plays into Liverpool hands. Pace on the counter is their main weapon.

 

A boring 0-0 like the four hours of finals between them last year would do me fine.

[54]

Howay Bournemouth and Chelsea.