ramirez Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Mackems nearly 3/1 to beat chelsea, insanity Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paullow Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 I hope Chelsea win on Tuesday to he honest, which would rule it out completely. I've pretty much given up on West Hdm staying up, especially after yesterday's first 30 mins, but would be nice for that to go to the last day, but more importantly, it would keep Chrlsea more motivated vs mackems if they still had an outside chance of Champions League on the final day. The combined chances of Chelsea dropping points vs Spurs, exactly drawing vs Sunderland, then us bettering Brentford with the required swing is probably less than 10%, so I mainly just font want Sunderland in Europe now, and if we fo finish above them, then that's a bonus. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paullow Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 1 hour ago, ramirez said: Mackems nearly 3/1 to beat chelsea, insanity Aye, best I could find was 11/4, so just stuck a bit on, if they don't win then they can't finish 8th, so decent. None of this them getting a last minute draw and sneaking in while ruining my bet. If they don't win then no Europe, if they fo win I get a good amount, and they're still not guaranteed anyway. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fak Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 2 hours ago, ramirez said: Mackems nearly 3/1 to beat chelsea, insanity Whats Chelseas odds? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paullow Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 (edited) Chelsea are currently just short of evens, like 10/11. May change depending on tomorrow's result, plus lots of Newcastle fans emotionally hedging on Sunderland winning, ha. Edited May 18 by Paullow Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 We turn Fulham over. Liverpool batter Brentford. Chelsea (having lost to Spurs) are 1-0 up in the 98th minute, when the mackems get a penalty… Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benwell Lad Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Always think goal difference gives a good assessment of how a team has done over a whole season, or is doing over a number of games, and league tables usually bear this out. Getafe have qualified for the Conference league finishing 7th in La Liga with a GD of minus seven. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fak Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 7 minutes ago, SteV said: We turn Fulham over. Liverpool batter Brentford. Chelsea (having lost to Spurs) are 1-0 up in the 98th minute, when the mackems get a penalty… Genuinely wouldn't be arsed if that did happen. We'd still finish above Sunderland and whilst the Conference League would be nice (from a fan perspective) and likely another trophy, qualifying for it hampers out transfer kitty. Stupidly, we have more to spend this summer if we don't qualify for the ECL. Would be good to have a right good go at the transfer window and a proper rebuild with more £ now we have a DoF in place. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fak Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 10 minutes ago, Benwell Lad said: Always think goal difference gives a good assessment of how a team has done over a whole season, or is doing over a number of games, and league tables usually bear this out. Getafe have qualified for the Conference league finishing 7th in La Liga with a GD of minus seven. Atalanta secured their ECL spot yesterday with +15 GD. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Just now, Fak said: Genuinely wouldn't be arsed if that did happen. We'd still finish above Sunderland and whilst the Conference League would be nice (from a fan perspective) and likely another trophy, qualifying for it hampers out transfer kitty. Stupidly, we have more to spend this summer if we don't qualify for the ECL. Would be good to have a right good go at the transfer window and a proper rebuild with more £ now we have a DoF in place. Spending more because you’re not in Europe is just a false economy really though. You spend more, but then when you qualify the next season, you just have to reduce your costs by more in order to comply. Really, unless your aim is just to stay up, rather than try and get into Europe, you should work to the UEFA figure, rather than the PL figure. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fak Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 2 minutes ago, SteV said: Spending more because you’re not in Europe is just a false economy really though. You spend more, but then when you qualify the next season, you just have to reduce your costs by more in order to comply. Really, unless your aim is just to stay up, rather than try and get into Europe, you should work to the UEFA figure, rather than the PL figure. Ah man this is messing with my head. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 16 minutes ago, SteV said: We turn Fulham over. Liverpool batter Brentford. Chelsea (having lost to Spurs) are 1-0 up in the 98th minute, when the mackems get a penalty… They'd miss it just to keep us out of Europe Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilcline Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 19 minutes ago, Benwell Lad said: Always think goal difference gives a good assessment of how a team has done over a whole season, or is doing over a number of games, and league tables usually bear this out. Getafe have qualified for the Conference league finishing 7th in La Liga with a GD of minus seven. Spain's qualifier might be even worse on the GD. There's still another game left and Valencia, Bilbao, Espanyol on -11, -13, -12 (albeit the first two play Barcelona and Real Madrid) can still match them on points and they sort positions on head to head rather than GD if equal. On another note, Girona v Elche on the last day as a relegation decider may be tasty Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Which game do we think goes off final day? Usually at least one that does, along with one absolute hiding. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Was speaking to my manager (Everton fan) earlier and he reckons (fully in the knowledge that it sounds like conspiracy theory nonsense) that Everton don't want European football this season because they're unprepared for it and have basically just shown up to matches for the last 6 weeks or so. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucasol Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 22 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said: Was speaking to my manager (Everton fan) earlier and he reckons (fully in the knowledge that it sounds like conspiracy theory nonsense) that Everton don't want European football this season because they're unprepared for it and have basically just shown up to matches for the last 6 weeks or so. Everton fans la, same lot convinced James Rodriguez had his meat chopped off as part of his transition. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucasol Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Apologies if but from NUFC.com: Should Chelsea fail to beat Spurs on Tuesday then the following set of results would see Newcastle finish eighth and qualify for the Europa Conference: Fulham 0-2 Newcastle Liverpool 1-0 Brentford (any three goal swing that gives us a better goals "for" than Brentford) mackems 0-0 Chelsea (any draw) Spurs 0-0 Everton (anything other than a five goal win for Everton) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 8 minutes ago, Nucasol said: Everton fans la, same lot convinced James Rodriguez had his meat chopped off as part of his transition. Yes, and I personally punched a horse. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froggy Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 5 minutes ago, Nucasol said: Apologies if but from NUFC.com: Should Chelsea fail to beat Spurs on Tuesday then the following set of results would see Newcastle finish eighth and qualify for the Europa Conference: Fulham 0-2 Newcastle Liverpool 1-0 Brentford (any three goal swing that gives us a better goals "for" than Brentford) mackems 0-0 Chelsea (any draw) Spurs 0-0 Everton (anything other than a five goal win for Everton) This seems very realistic tbf. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bonk Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 3 hours ago, SteV said: Spending more because you’re not in Europe is just a false economy really though. You spend more, but then when you qualify the next season, you just have to reduce your costs by more in order to comply. Really, unless your aim is just to stay up, rather than try and get into Europe, you should work to the UEFA figure, rather than the PL figure. I think we’re in a unique position where we can grow revenue (as we have the last few seasons) to spend over the 70% SCR UEFA limit. Do we go to the 115% allowable (with luxury tax)? No, but I don’t see us staying at our current 68% SCR next season. Think we’ll go close to 85% and earmark some players who will be available for transfer if we qualify for Europe the season after to get us back to 70% or close to it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 2 minutes ago, Froggy said: This seems very realistic tbf. Well, I’d class it as not completely unrealistic, as opposed to realistic. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bonk Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 9 minutes ago, Nucasol said: Apologies if but from NUFC.com: Should Chelsea fail to beat Spurs on Tuesday then the following set of results would see Newcastle finish eighth and qualify for the Europa Conference: Fulham 0-2 Newcastle Liverpool 1-0 Brentford (any three goal swing that gives us a better goals "for" than Brentford) mackems 0-0 Chelsea (any draw) Spurs 0-0 Everton (anything other than a five goal win for Everton) Does this still happen if Chelsea and Everton lose? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucasol Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Just now, The Bonk said: Does this still happen if Chelsea and Everton lose? Yes if Everton lose but need Chelsea and the mackems to draw. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 2 minutes ago, The Bonk said: Think we’ll go close to 85% and earmark some players who will be available for transfer if we qualify for Europe the season after to get us back to 70% or close to it. Does it not defeat the purpose of improving your squad in order to qualify for Europe, if when you do so, you then have to weaken it? *appreciate it’s never that black and white, but you know what I mean. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bonk Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 1 minute ago, SteV said: Does it not defeat the purpose of improving your squad in order to qualify for Europe, if when you do so, you then have to weaken it? *appreciate it’s never that black and white, but you know what I mean. Yeah, it’s all shite from our growth perspective. This is where I hope Hopkinson can use his connections to grow commercial revenue to make up the gap. Sucks that we can’t spend at will, but the strategy around SCR limits is interesting to navigate. One thing I back Eddie for is player development and I can see why the club has stuck with him as we shift club operations and leadership roles. He provides player revenue opportunities other managers wouldn’t. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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