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The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.


Rich

The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

615 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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2 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

Have you watched the Champions League group stages?

 

The disparity between clubs from the top nations and the champions of smaller European nations is enormous. A lot of uncompetitive games already.

 

Yes.

 

One way to narrow the chasm is to apportion the revenues more widely. What's proposed will have the opposite effect. Such is modern football.

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3 hours ago, Yorkie said:

I don't like this expansion of places at all, tbh. Finishing 5th in the PL really shouldn't earn entry into the highest echelon of European competition.

 

The better thing to do would've been to fast-track actual champions from lower-ranked leagues; or at least more runners-up from the slightly-lower ranked ones. It's mad that the league winners from the likes of Sweden, Romania and Poland have to start way back in the early qualifiers.

 

I get that the 'Champions' League retains that name for no reason beyond it being far too strong a brand to lose - rather than it having anything to do with any champions... but still, it would be nice to have a few more of its entrants actually meet the definition.  

 

Even getting entry into Europe by finishing 8th feels quite unmerited. I like the UCL and would embrace being in it but if it's that easy to qualify it loses that sense of gravitas; which it already struggles with. 

Totally agree.

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26 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Yeah, was more even up to the 70s probably due to clubs' followings being more regionalised since. Less live football on TV (particularly overseas games), no internet, etc so I guess big clubs in each country were more even..

 

Seems like from late 80s with Serie A, then the Premier League in the 90s and La Liga kicking off globally, it's made it almost impossible for the rest to keep up. Not sure there'll ever be a fix.

 

It was more even till the 91. 

 

Look at the winners between 85 and 91, a mix of different countries minus Milan side.

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As the dust settles on yesterday’s humiliating defeat/reality check, we are sitting in 8th place, 7 points behind Man Utd in 6th, and at risk of both West Ham and Chelsea (who each have a game in hand) overtaking us.
However, taking into account the relative difficulty of games across the season, we are only 4.4 points away from the points we may have expected to accumulate to be on track for a sixth place finish (using PL points for sixth in an average season). 

IMG_7988.thumb.jpeg.4347ba06baac4510ec5b2422a5f62228.jpeg
There are 36 points available. If we continue at the same Points Per Game as the last 26 games (1.31 PPG), we would end-up with around 53 points. In order to hit the 62 points usually enough for 6th, we would need 25 points from 12 games; so 2.08 PPG. 
 

If that sounds completely unachievable, then it is worth remembering that our PPG for the last 12 games of 2022 was 2.33 (won 8 and drew 4). Last 12 of 2022/23 season was 2.0 PPG (W7 D3 L 2). Not directly  comparable, but it at least shows that under Howe, with a lesser squad if we get players back now,  we have had runs which could realistically give us a 2.08 PPG return or better for the remaining games of this season.

These consist of only one ‘Tier 1’ team (Man Utd away), four Tier 2 teams (Chelsea and Brentford away; Spurs and Brighton at home). Four Tier 3 teams (Palace and Fulham away; Wolves and West Ham at home). Three Tier 4 teams (Burnley away; Everton and Sheffield Utd at home). I think we can get 25 points or better from those 12 games.
So I’m not giving up on some kind of European involvement next year, at least not  just yet.

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We still have all of the clubs around us to play yet, nothing has been decided yet. If we get players back and if we play well then 7th, maybe even 6th at a real push is possible. Not sure why anyone is even considering chucking the towel in and accepting a bottom half position, it's in our hands where we finish

 

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2 minutes ago, TRC said:

Mitoma out for the season, that has to give us the edge over Brighton now who are killed with injuries.

We have to see a massive improvement defensively before we even think about pushing for Europe imo.

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3 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

We have to see a massive improvement defensively before we even think about pushing for Europe imo.

Every remaining game we have is winnable, I dont really see any reason why it should be not be realistic to get 7th.

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6 minutes ago, TRC said:

Every remaining game we have is winnable, I dont really see any reason why it should be not be realistic to get 7th.

We have had Luton and Bournemouth at home recently and were lucky to get a point in each whilst conceding 6 goals. Unless we sort that out we won’t get Europe imo. 

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Just now, SUPERTOON said:

We have had Luton and Bournemouth at home recently and were lucky to get a point in each whilst conceding 6 goals. Unless we sort that out we won’t get Europe imo. 

I agree, but I also think its unacceptable to not get 60+ points based on the run in, Brighton being decimated and having Europe, as do West Ham. Being extremely conservative we get 16 points from the run in, which puts us at 53.

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It's impossible me for to gauge what's realistic or acceptable because until it happens I'm having trouble assuming we'll have Isak, Willock, and whomever else for the rest of the season. If that happens and we get Pope back for the last couple months I'd be very confident in finishing 7th.

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I think to get 7th we are looking at needing 7 wins and a couple of draws from the last 12 games. All the home games are winable on paper, and the fact we have 3 of the 4 teams fighting it out for 7th to play at home is a positive.

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That's brought us within 2 points of a European spot, or 20 points clear of relegation depending on how you see Hall not playing 

 

 

Edited by TBG

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If Howe manages to get top 6/7 with the season we've had - its a massive achievement in all honesty. I expected us to get top 6 beginning of the season without the nonsense thats happened to us throughout - top 4 wasn't realistic considering Liverpool rebuilt, Villa are far stronger than last year, as well as Ange making Spurs a serious team again.

 

 

Edited by Menace

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We will see how good Spurs are with CL footy next year and a loaded schedule.

 

Next year will be carnage.... the expectations of Arsenal, Man United, Villa and Spurs will be through the roof and Liverpool will have a new manager. Something will have to give.

 

Of course, we will have our own expectations, we need to keep our heads down and allow others to cut each others throats.

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I still think we're quite short of challenging top 4 unless we have an incredible summer - but if we keep building on a top 6 achievement/target I'm happy with that. Last seasons achievement has made some of our fans think we should be challenging top 4 when IMO we're quite a bit off that.

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Just now, Menace said:

I still think we're quite short of challenging top 4 unless we have an incredible summer - but if we keep building on a top 6 achievement/target I'm happy with that. Last seasons achievement has made some of our fans think we should be challenging top 4 when IMO we're quite a bit off that.

 

There ain't much between us Spurs and Villa IMO. Villa have slightly more consistent depth and Spurs have some real experience in Son, coupled with Maddisons quality but we have our own qualities.

 

Give us Alex Isak for 75% of our games and let's see how we do.

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Thats a big ask tbf :lol:

 

Watkins never seems to get injured for Villa, I'm sure Spurs will sign a striker this summer too.

 

 

Edited by Menace

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Without our injuries, we'd be finishing 6th at least this year. We are only 4 points off Man United as it stands.

 

We need a good summer. 3 quality signings in the Isak/Bruno/Botman bracket, half the injuries of this year, and the Italian Stallion back and we will be fine for top 6 next year.

 

Joelinton signing a contract needs to be job one on the agenda. Where would we finish in the league if we had the big fella available for the remaining games.

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