The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.

[hakka]

2 hours ago, Oregon_Geordie said:

I'm an 8.

A 9 if we win the next 2.

Just keeping doing what we do. Keep clean sheets and we're in great form again going forward.

Some team soon is gonna get a spanking also....

 

I'd be a 10 if we win all our remaining games.

[Kid Icarus]

I think if we're still in a good position by the time we play Spurs and then we beat them, it's on.

[Stottie]

We've now scored the same number of goals as Man U and conceded half as many. Yet the general consensus is that they've been nailed on for Top 4 for weeks.

They are playing a striker who looks genuinely worse than Chris Wood. At least Chris Wood touched the ball. Their key men are a combative midfielder who's been sent off twice and a (great) wide forward whose even-for-him hot streak looks like it's ended. The best thing they have going for them is their points already on the board.

 

For us (and Man U), it's likely 15 points will do it, four wins and three draws from eleven matches. It's preferable some come from the Tottenham and Brighton games, but not essential. We could lose them both and it probably won't matter so long as we win some of the other games.  I'm sure we'll get there.

 

Four more wins. That's all we need. 

 

 

[wiseman]

Going to say at a 6 still, though if we  beat spurs I'd probably move up to an 8 

[Lush Vlad]

Obviously it depends on results elsewhere over the next couple of weeks. But get through these 3 away games with a minimum of 5 points and I think we’re in a good spot. 

[alexf]

Man u fixtures look favourable and ours look tricky on paper. But hopefully we just take care of our own business and hope our rivals mess up. 

 

West ham looked poor when I watched them yesterday. Obviously it was a nervy six pointer for them and they maybe be more relaxed against us. But if we get the first goal I think we win comfortably.

 

Brentford and villa away will be tough and I guess draws wouldn't be terrible but then we have a must win against spurs. 

[Shays Given Tim Flowers]

Looking at the table it feels like 2 from 3. 7 points from the next three would be great. We could live with 5.  Man Utd have to play Spurs shortly after we play Spurs. 

[Mazzy]

Winning this West Ham game is a big one because of how difficult the two will be. Its a relief that we've got most of the squad back fit now as the games are coming so quickly. 

 

If we can get through the next 3 games with 7 points then we go into the Spurs game with a chance to put a wedge between us and them. I dont see Spurs winning ALL there next 3, I think they'll probably get 6 points before we face them.

[Kid Icarus]

I'd snap your hand off for 5 points from these 3 away games like.

[NUFCDoog]

If Man Utd win the Europa does that mean 5th get in too? Assuming they finish 3rd?

 

If so I fancy them for the Europa so would be very confident of us finishing at least 5th and being in Champions League next year.

[Llwydiarth]

3 minutes ago, NUFCDoog said:

If Man Utd win the Europa does that mean 5th get in too? Assuming they finish 3rd?

 

If so I fancy them for the Europa so would be very confident of us finishing at least 5th and being in Champions League next year.

Na, think if they finish 5th and win Europa, 4th in league doesn’t get CL. 

[Geogaddi]

Bookies have us at 1/2 for a top 4 finish now.

[Norseman]

Five teams can qualify to Champion's League if Man Utd finish outside the top 4 and win the Europa League, so 4th is safe to qualify as long as Chelsea does not win the Champion's League.

 

Source: https://www.premierleague.com/european-qualification-explained

[Paullow]

There can be 5 English teams in the CL, but not 6, so we'll be fine in 4th if Man Utd finish outside top 4 and win the Europa, or if we finish 4th and Chelsea win the CL, but NOT if both of those situations occur. If English sides won both (bigger) European competitions and neither finished in the top 4, then 4th place would miss out, although that scenario is pretty unlikely.

 

I've replied to Llwydiarth there, but they didn't really answer NUFCDoog's question - if Man Utd finish 3rd and win the Europa. 5th would NOT get in the CL.

[Mazzy]

Well Chelsea aren't beating Real over two legs so there's no issue there.

[Stottie]

11 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

I'd snap your hand off for 5 points from these 3 away games like.

Yes, that would be fine and dandy.  None of our rivals have good away form and several are below us in that table. Tottenham went 1-1-2 against teams averaging 1.1 pts a game at home.

 

[Optimistic Nut]

15 hours ago, The Prophet said:

What we thinking for these next three away games then. Brentford and Villa in particular look tricky. 5+ points would be a decent return.

 

As long as we beat Spurs at home then I think 4 would keep us ticking. 

[Paullow]

5 minutes ago, Mazzy said:

Well Chelsea aren't beating Real over two legs so there's no issue there.

Spurs fans would have thought similar in 2011/12 when they finished 4th and an out of sorts Chelsea with Di Matteo as caretaker manager had to beat reigning CL champs Barcelona over 2 legs in the semi final and then Bayern Munich in the final in the German's home stadium, but they did, and Spurs missed out (that was our season finishing 5th under Pardew, would have been gutting if it was us...), so while extremely unlikely they will beat Real, then City/Bayern in the SF, and then the final, you can't fully rule it out.

[Mazzy]

1 minute ago, Paullow said:

Spurs fans would have thought similar in 2011/12 when they finished 4th and an out of sorts Chelsea with Di Matteo as caretaker manager had to beat reigning CL champs Barcelona over 2 legs in the semi final and then Bayern Munich in the final in the German's home stadium, but they did, and Spurs missed out (that was our season finishing 5th under Pardew, would have been gutting if it was us...), so while extremely unlikely they will beat Real, then City/Bayern in the SF, and then the final, you can't fully rule it out.

 

Obviously it's not impossible but that's totally different from this season. Chelsea finished that season only a few points off top 4. Whereas this season they are not even in the top 10 currently and can't hit a barn door.

[TRon]

I thought Man U were nailed on top 4 finish before yesterday, but a team that can look that bad is by no means certain of anything. Even if Casimero comes back, who's to say Rashford might not hit a bad run? Think they look a bit vulnerable, and the batterings they got off us and Liverpool must have shook them a bit.

[gjohnson]

It's in our hands now, we have the points on the board, a superb goal difference compared to those around, and a game in hand on the most realistic challenger.  Yes historically we have always been able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but it feels different this time around.

[Dokko]

We need 67pts. Not sure we'll get that. Let's give it a good go though.

 

5pts from the next 3 would be epic. 

[The Fountain]

7 hours ago, Stottie said:

We've now scored the same number of goals as Man U and conceded half as many. Yet the general consensus is that they've been nailed on for Top 4 for weeks.

They are playing a striker who looks genuinely worse than Chris Wood. At least Chris Wood touched the ball. Their key men are a combative midfielder who's been sent off twice and a (great) wide forward whose even-for-him hot streak looks like it's ended. The best thing they have going for them is their points already on the board.

 

For us (and Man U), it's likely 15 points will do it, four wins and three draws from eleven matches. It's preferable some come from the Tottenham and Brighton games, but not essential. We could lose them both and it probably won't matter so long as we win some of the other games.  I'm sure we'll get there.

 

Four more wins. That's all we need. 

 

 

65 pts might be wishful thinking for a CL place. 70 pts for me 6 wins 2 draws.

[gjohnson]

When was the last time we'd gotten to this point of the season having only lost 3 matches? If ever?

 

Even 95/96 we'd lost 4 by now

 

 

Edited April 3, 2023 by gjohnson

[Paullow]

17 minutes ago, Mazzy said:

 

Obviously it's not impossible but that's totally different from this season. Chelsea finished that season only a few points off top 4. Whereas this season they are not even in the top 10 currently and can't hit a barn door.

Yeah, not 100% similar, and Chelsea are in a worse situation than they were then, but they still have very talented players that could turn up at any time, probably more so now that they have taken action.

 

Similar energy on this thread back then:

 

Posted April 17, 2012

  On 17/04/2012 at 09:33, nufc4eva said:

I don't get how Chelsea winning Champions League (Not going to happen) would prevent 6th going into europa. Surely they would take 4th place spot, 5th would take the spot and there would still be FA cup place? - is it not just substituting teams ? why would UEFA remove a europa place when we would then have less teams in europe?

 

They're not. This isn't happening.

 

Chelsea won't win the Champions League.

 

I don't think Chelsea shutting out Barca means they're going to win the Champions League. I'm slightly more worried about it now, but it won't happen.

 

I still think Barca will finish them off in them off in the 2nd leg, but even if Chelsea pull it off i reckon Madrid or Bayern would beat them in the final......

 

There was definitely a consensus that 'it was not going to happen', and was extremely unlikely, but it did. It's more matches this time, but still just 5 matches, and they've only 12/1, so not like some 50/1 no hoper.

 

 

Edited April 3, 2023 by Paullow