The College Dropout Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, bobbydazzla said: You’ve just done it again. Presenting speculation as facts because it fits with your opinions. I’m only speculating because it demonstrates that what TCD is extremely confident will happen, may not actually happen as there are other plausible scenarios available. Because life isn’t binary, it’s filled with possibilities. And anytime someone thinks they can see exactly what will happen, just pause to remember Isak and how his move to Liverpool played out. Football’s a funny owld game. I’m not talking about outcomes I’m talking about profiles and process. You sign a 29 year old striker for a premium price - you’re not likely to make your money back. Even if he does well. Not many clubs will spend £55m on a winger as limited technically as Elanga with his same reputation. Brennan Johnson is a similar case - sold for £50m to Spurs - 11 PL goals last season, 5 in the Europa league including the winner in the final. But then sold for £35m. Maybe could’ve got £40m-45m but fundamentally he doesn’t have the technical ability to be a mainstay at perennial European contenders so the market for a player of that profile is limited. Conversely Thiaw is still young, quick, good in the air, might become regular international. He could be worth £50-60m. He has the profile. We’ve got a good number of players where we’ve bough them at peak value. With PSR constraints that doesn’t make sense. 1 or 2 is fine and probably needed. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 hours ago, Interpolic said: In that 3 years they've qualified once, nearly qualified once. 22/23 they were 10 points behind us in 4th. Same 3 years we've qualified twice and the other year we were 8 points behind them in 4th. How is their record of challenging for the CL the last 3 years better than ours? It's clearly worse. Edit - unless you're including this season, which we're only halfway through. Tbf, all those times we did better than them was because they were unlucky Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLUMPO235 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 hours ago, LFEE said: None of that had anything to with Ashworth though so there is that one fly in the ointment with your argument Don’t be naive. He was the centre of the wheel! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sibierski Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 If PSR wasn’t a thing, ourselves and Villa would be firmly entrenched in top 5 alongside Man City / Arsenal / Liverpool. It’s why it’s working PSR for the big boys because whilst Villa are in there currently, their squad means they’re not a serious threat for the title, and whilst we got up there again, we’ve had to fall off. Gives a breathing space for others to sort their stuff out before we try and come again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zero Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 hours ago, The College Dropout said: I’m not talking about outcomes I’m talking about profiles and process. You sign a 29 year old striker for a premium price - you’re not likely to make your money back. Even if he does well. Not many clubs will spend £55m on a winger as limited technically as Elanga with his same reputation. Brennan Johnson is a similar case - sold for £50m to Spurs - 11 PL goals last season, 5 in the Europa league including the winner in the final. But then sold for £35m. Maybe could’ve got £40m-45m but fundamentally he doesn’t have the technical ability to be a mainstay at perennial European contenders so the market for a player of that profile is limited. Conversely Thiaw is still young, quick, good in the air, might become regular international. He could be worth £50-60m. He has the profile. We’ve got a good number of players where we’ve bough them at peak value. With PSR constraints that doesn’t make sense. 1 or 2 is fine and probably needed. I know a lot of people here dislike the old rat Ashworth but imo he is the only one that is playing the PSR game correctly Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFEE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 hours ago, FLUMPO235 said: Don’t be naive. He was the centre of the wheel! Just a processes man. Offshore Jim saw straight through him within months. Had nothing substantial to do with finding our targets. He’s grifted well TBF to him. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hhtoon Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Judging a player (Wissa) purely by resale is ignoring all the other revenue streams they contribute to. As BobbyD said yesterday, if Wissa was to get the goals than secured us top 4, then thats a huge chunk of ROI right there. I doubt any exec in the club would give a shit if we "lost" 35m over 3 years on him if he kept us at the top of the league. Yes, ideally you'd have both, but you don't always need to. I love football, but anyone not treating it as a normal business is a little naive and focusing on one metric is either agenda based or ignorance of how companies value investments. Now Elanga on the other hand... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarie4 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, Zero said: I know a lot of people here dislike the old rat Ashworth but imo he is the only one that is playing the PSR game correctly Didn't we sell Minteh and anderson in order to satisfy psr? Didnt we not sign a player for like 3 windows ? I mean what psr game was he playing? He saw the psr hole we were in and jumped ship at the 1st opportunity. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkie Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Hhtoon said: Judging a player (Wissa) purely by resale is ignoring all the other revenue streams they contribute to. As BobbyD said yesterday, if Wissa was to get the goals than secured us top 4, then thats a huge chunk of ROI right there. I doubt any exec in the club would give a shit if we "lost" 35m over 3 years on him if he kept us at the top of the league. Yes, ideally you'd have both, but you don't always need to. I love football, but anyone not treating it as a normal business is a little naive and focusing on one metric is either agenda based or ignorance of how companies value investments. Now Elanga on the other hand... Agree, and the other thing with Wissa is that he's only played 200 career games at the top level. Bowen has been mentioned in the Realistic Targets thread; he's the same age as Wissa but has 400. If we dropped the same £55m on him I think there'd be a more legitimate question mark over that decision, because burn-out is so much more likely. Wissa could theoretically go for ages yet. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarie4 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Hhtoon said: Judging a player (Wissa) purely by resale is ignoring all the other revenue streams they contribute to. As BobbyD said yesterday, if Wissa was to get the goals than secured us top 4, then thats a huge chunk of ROI right there. I doubt any exec in the club would give a shit if we "lost" 35m over 3 years on him if he kept us at the top of the league. Yes, ideally you'd have both, but you don't always need to. I love football, but anyone not treating it as a normal business is a little naive and focusing on one metric is either agenda based or ignorance of how companies value investments. Now Elanga on the other hand... The issue with TCD's argument is that he only looks at resale value for every transfer. Wissa was brought in to replace Wilson, as an older, experienced EPL striker who was averaging 15 goals/assists a season. He was supposed to help Wolte settle and join our leadership group. Remember Bruno's goal against Burnley? Wissa was celebrating front and center with Howe. Same with Miley's winner against Fulham. Elanga is 23 and hasn't been "Howe'd" yet. I'll give him some time to settle. Gordon looked awful when he first came in, and Murphy was a League 2 player, but Howe turned them around. I'll give Elanga time. Some of these opinions might not age well, Howe has proven himself time and again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 PSR means that resale value isn’t always relevant - Wissa’s fee is amortised over the length of the contract. So he costs c.£14m per season in fee unless we extend it. The same would apply if he was 22 - and while yes, of course it would be nice to be able to sell for a profit, any sale for PSR purposes goes against the remaining amortised transfer fee. All of which means signing players at the back end of their career for big money isn’t an issue as long as they perform Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zero Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 56 minutes ago, tarie4 said: Didn't we sell Minteh and anderson in order to satisfy psr? Didnt we not sign a player for like 3 windows ? I mean what psr game was he playing? He saw the psr hole we were in and jumped ship at the 1st opportunity. I said before - he wanted to sell Joe that January before renewing the contract, which was banned by Howe / Staveley. And after he started the garden leave, NONE in the club act in that January to balance the book and hence the summer crisis. It’s perfectly fine to keep Joe since he won us the cup. The gamble paid off. That doesn’t mean Ashworth didn’t know how to play the PSR game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbydazzla Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 (edited) 10 hours ago, The College Dropout said: I’m not talking about outcomes I’m talking about profiles and process. You sign a 29 year old striker for a premium price - you’re not likely to make your money back. Even if he does well. Not many clubs will spend £55m on a winger as limited technically as Elanga with his same reputation. Brennan Johnson is a similar case - sold for £50m to Spurs - 11 PL goals last season, 5 in the Europa league including the winner in the final. But then sold for £35m. Maybe could’ve got £40m-45m but fundamentally he doesn’t have the technical ability to be a mainstay at perennial European contenders so the market for a player of that profile is limited. Conversely Thiaw is still young, quick, good in the air, might become regular international. He could be worth £50-60m. He has the profile. We’ve got a good number of players where we’ve bough them at peak value. With PSR constraints that doesn’t make sense. 1 or 2 is fine and probably needed. Brennan Johnson scored the winner in the cup final of a tournament that meant Spurs earned £26.5m in prize money and also got them back on the Champions League gravy train which allows them to rake in tens of millions this season. And their fans finally got to celebrate a cup win after 17 years. Which is priceless. And winning a trophy and being back in the CL also makes the club more attractive to potential signings and new fans. And silverware plus CL should help keep their current players relatively happy. So what if they’ve lost some money on his transfer, the big picture is far more important. Edited January 4 by bobbydazzla Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Hhtoon said: Judging a player (Wissa) purely by resale is ignoring all the other revenue streams they contribute to. As BobbyD said yesterday, if Wissa was to get the goals than secured us top 4, then thats a huge chunk of ROI right there. I doubt any exec in the club would give a shit if we "lost" 35m over 3 years on him if he kept us at the top of the league. Yes, ideally you'd have both, but you don't always need to. I love football, but anyone not treating it as a normal business is a little naive and focusing on one metric is either agenda based or ignorance of how companies value investments. Now Elanga on the other hand... I’m judging the entirety of our transfer approach not just Wissa. I’ve already said this - 1 maybe 2 is fine. We have 3 or 4 like this which makes the bulk of our recent spend. When you have £50m of amortised value and £200m in spend like this you do need CL football, deep CL runs or close. Evidently we aren’t going to qualify for the CL. Again it’s about profile and risk. Tonali being 23 an a high reputation player means that he’s missed an entire season where we didn’t qualify for Europe but 2 years later we would sell him for more then we bought him. Even if he failed we would get decent money for him. Do you get it now? It’s about profiles and risks. 7 minutes ago, Zero said: I said before - he wanted to sell Joe that January before renewing the contract, which was banned by Howe / Staveley. And after he started the garden leave, NONE in the club act in that January to balance the book and hence the summer crisis. It’s perfectly fine to keep Joe since he won us the cup. The gamble paid off. That doesn’t mean Ashworth didn’t know how to play the PSR game. Yes Ashworth planned to sell Joelinton as plan B for PSR, plan A was selling Bruno with the release clause. He had a proper PSR exit strategy. As soon as he left Staveley have Joelinton the contract and closed that door. Similarly Villa sold Douglas Luiz for PSR for £50m. Replaced him with Tielemans. Also got Onana as part of PSR shenanigans. It’s just a smart approach. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, bobbydazzla said: Brennan Johnson scored the winner in the cup final of a tournament that meant Spurs earned £26.5m in prize money and also got them back on the Champions League gravy train which allows them to rake in tens of millions this season. And their fans finally got to celebrate a cup win after 17 years. Which is priceless. And winning a trophy and being back in the CL also makes the club more attractive to potential signings and new fans. And silverware plus CL should help keep their current players relatively happy. So what if they’ve lost some money on his transfer, the big picture is far more important. By your logic Elanga needs to win us a trophy to justify the transfer. ok - I agree with that. Sounds like a poor transfer approach but you’re right. If he wins us a trophy it justifies his lack of ability and resale potential. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbydazzla Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 (edited) 12 minutes ago, The College Dropout said: I’m judging the entirety of our transfer approach not just Wissa. I’ve already said this - 1 maybe 2 is fine. We have 3 or 4 like this which makes the bulk of our recent spend. When you have £50m of amortised value and £200m in spend like this you do need CL football, deep CL runs or close. Evidently we aren’t going to qualify for the CL. Again it’s about profile and risk. Tonali being 23 an a high reputation player means that he’s missed an entire season where we didn’t qualify for Europe but 2 years later we would sell him for more then we bought him. Even if he failed we would get decent money for him. Do you get it now? It’s about profiles and risks. Yes Ashworth planned to sell Joelinton as plan B for PSR, plan A was selling Bruno with the release clause. He had a proper PSR exit strategy. As soon as he left Staveley have Joelinton the contract and closed that door. Similarly Villa sold Douglas Luiz for PSR for £50m. Replaced him with Tielemans. Also got Onana as part of PSR shenanigans. It’s just a smart approach. It’s a football team. It’s about passion and triumph and failure and adversity and love and hate and good luck and bad luck and surprises and skill and graft and most importantly it’s about real people on the pitch, in the dugout, in the offices, in the stands and watching on telly. But you approach it like it’s commodities trading. Edited January 4 by bobbydazzla Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Btw I also said the league cup and CL qualification justified Joelinton’s contract and the sales. But I still think it was poor long term planning. And then we’ve done it again with inferior players and almost certainly not qualifying for the CL. I don’t think a club In Our position can continue to make such decisions and I expect we’ll pivot now. But we’ll see. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hhtoon Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, The College Dropout said: I’m judging the entirety of our transfer approach not just Wissa. I’ve already said this - 1 maybe 2 is fine. We have 3 or 4 like this which makes the bulk of our recent spend. When you have £50m of amortised value and £200m in spend like this you do need CL football, deep CL runs or close. Evidently we aren’t going to qualify for the CL. Again it’s about profile and risk. Tonali being 23 an a high reputation player means that he’s missed an entire season where we didn’t qualify for Europe but 2 years later we would sell him for more then we bought him. Even if he failed we would get decent money for him. Do you get it now? It’s about profiles and risks. Yes Ashworth planned to sell Joelinton as plan B for PSR, plan A was selling Bruno with the release clause. He had a proper PSR exit strategy. As soon as he left Staveley have Joelinton the contract and closed that door. Similarly Villa sold Douglas Luiz for PSR for £50m. Replaced him with Tielemans. Also got Onana as part of PSR shenanigans. It’s just a smart approach. I hope it wasn't lost on you that I didn't actually quote your post as I don't entirely disagree with you. Obviously you'd ideally want best of all worlds, I was focusing on Wissa only as people are highlighting his potential future resale where clearly he wasn't purchased for that purpose. Elanga and Nick W clearly have different metrics for analysing their potential returns. As does every player.pl I hate to get into ifs and maybes, but I dont think its beyond the realms of possibility that a fit Wissa from day 1 would have us further up the league. As a wise man once said, I prefer to watch football with my eyes. All this analysis of PSR can be frustrating and a distraction, and get enough enough of it at work frankly Again, wasn't particularly aimed at anyone in particular. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I like Wissa as a player. But his injury has likely meant the entire transfer has backfired based on the logic shared. It’s not a smart approach. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Venkman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 25 minutes ago, bobbydazzla said: It’s a football team. It’s about passion and triumph and failure and adversity and love and hate and good luck and bad luck and surprises and skill and graft and most importantly it’s about real people on the pitch, in the dugout, in the offices, in the stands and watching on telly. But you approach it like it’s commodities trading. Maybe if we found out why he’s an NUFC fan it might give some helpful context. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbydazzla Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, The College Dropout said: I like Wissa as a player. But his injury has likely meant the entire transfer has backfired based on the logic shared. It’s not a smart approach. Seriously man. Take a break. We’ll know if the Wissa transfer has backfired when he leaves NUFC, whenever and however that may be. He’s been here a few months and you reckon he’s backfired. It’s madness to think like that. If he scores goals that propel NUFC forward and plays an important senior role in the squad then the vast majority of people associated with NUFC won’t give a fuck how much we paid and how much we sell him for. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarie4 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 55 minutes ago, Zero said: I said before - he wanted to sell Joe that January before renewing the contract, which was banned by Howe / Staveley. And after he started the garden leave, NONE in the club act in that January to balance the book and hence the summer crisis. It’s perfectly fine to keep Joe since he won us the cup. The gamble paid off. That doesn’t mean Ashworth didn’t know how to play the PSR game. How much would we have gotten for big Joe? With 18 months left on his contract? Also you are basing thisnon the fact that someone was in for Big Joe that January.. a lot of ifs in that scenario. However even if we sold him and kept Anderson and miniteh we we still would have needed to sell in order to buy again. I am only disputing your claim that he had everything under control. He definitely didn't thats why he jumped ship at the 1st opportunity. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interpolic Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Totally different context but the Wissa transfer reminds me a bit of Les Ferdinand - same age, similar fee in relative terms (high but not sky high, for the time), had only played for smaller clubs etc. Different times though and it's not often these days we'll spend big money on a player on their late-20s. Think with Ross Wilson in and our investment in analytics we'll see more of a return to data-led acquisitions going forward, the summer was us making the best of a mess of a situation but it can't be the approach every transfer window. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zero Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It really depends on your POV as a fan or as a management analyst. I perfectly understand why fans want the club to always take the best shot to challenge trophies. Just a simple question: why not? It’s FOOTBALL. on the other hand, in another perspective, especially in financial budgeting, there is another simple question: would you take assumptions that the club can win the league / cup and include the additional money earned? Of course not. It’s BUSINESS. Once you got the equation wrong you would have a disastrous period upcoming. The Anderson case. We should all know this. You both are talking sense imo. It’s just the original position taken that raise the argument. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarie4 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 51 minutes ago, The College Dropout said: Yes Ashworth planned to sell Joelinton as plan B for PSR, plan A was selling Bruno with the release clause. He had a proper PSR exit strategy. As soon as he left Staveley have Joelinton the contract and closed that door. Similarly Villa sold Douglas Luiz for PSR for £50m. Replaced him with Tielemans. Also got Onana as part of PSR shenanigans. It’s just a smart approach. Again basing on speculation that someone would pay 100mil for Bruno.. or 60 million for big Joe with 18 months left. Why not wait till the summer and get him for 35. Also Luiz went for 42 million not 50. And Villa had to buy 2 youngsters from Juvie as part of the deal. Dont let facts get in the way hey 😂 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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