I think the ballot is going to be really important commercially, let me explain why.
the commercial analysts at the club will have categorised the fan base, probably more nuanced than I am going to, but here we go:
imagine a graph - the y-axis is how many games a fan attends, and the x-axis is the fan’s level of engagement (defined as willingness to engage in activity other than match tickets that generate revenue). Every fan is on this graph somewhere and of course part of the commercial lab will be getting more fans on the graph - but this post focuses on the fans we have.
once positioned on the graph, the fan base can be split into 4 groups
1. High Attendance, High Engagement
These are fans who go to every match, buy all the merchandise, spend a high proportion of their disposable income in the club. Think Adam P.
These are the most lucrative fans to the club. Due to the constrained nature of season tickets and requirements this to be a fairly well off local person, the commercial arm of the club has limited scope to grow the number of people in the group (probably limited to a couple of thousand), and they can’t increase commercial income from this group as they are already spending a lot.
the main objective for this group is therefore to keep them happy.
2. High Attendance, Low Engagement
There are two subsets of these groups, those that have season tickets, and those who attend quite a few games a season.
Both of these groups however have things in common, they don’t buy much merchandise, they don’t eat or drink at the stadium, so the per match income is very little over the ticket price. Think Greg or Crumpy Gunt.
the commercial arm has very little scope to increase income from this group either, especially as constrained to 50,000 to 70,000 people.
whilst the club likes its season ticket holders as a source of guaranteed income they may in the future try to reduce these numbers a little if they believe they can fill the stadium with more commercially viable fans.
meanwhile, those fans who buy several individual tickets a season but don’t buy any extras, the commercial arm of the club hates them as they are blocking more profitable fans from coming to games. More on this in a moment.
3. Low attendance, low engagement.
fans who don’t go to games and aren’t generating income for the club. This is the largest group of fans by far with the biggest opportunity to generate new sources of income. However as there are only so many match tickets, the commercial arm prioritises trying to increase engagement in this group.
4. Low attendance, high engagement
Fans who are willing to spend a fair amount n non ticket revenue but for whatever reason can’t get to games and may be put off by competition for in-demand tickets.
Of those fans in this group who get to a match, they spend significantly more per game.
the commercial arm therefore loves this group, wants as many in this group as possible and then would like to see as many individual tickets as possible sold to this group at the expense of those who currently go to games more often.
additionally potential sponsors are most interested in this group so having as many fans in this group as possible drives other commercial income.
The ballot therefore does a few things. It cuts down on the unprofitable fans from group 2. It gets more of group 3 and 4 at games which generates extra revenue from group 4 whilst encouraging more on group 3 to transition to group 4.
a quick back of envelope calculation on the basis of what I have described above has led me to the conclusion that the ballot will in the long term contribute to £20m - £30m new income per season.
Last year I said 4th to 10th I think and I was chilled with 10th. This season I’m revising it to 2nd to 8th (plus at least a quarter final) and I am very chilled with 8th which means no Europe as there will be seasons with teething troubles. My biggest worry is the media and the idiot but vocal minority of fans if and when we aren’t showing CL or Europa form. The media will immediately go for Howe and try to create a narrative that the job is too big for him. Our board must resist this narrative and ignore the idiot fans that believe it.