Try it yourself, when you're doing it on a match by match basis it makes perfect sense. It's only when you look at the table that you see it's a bit dodgy. FWIW though, I do think we'll end on 34-37 points.
Truly does Every Southampton fixture my mind went "Well, they're on a poor run of form, surely can't win that one. At most a draw." and then they end up with 27 points at the end of it all