Coffee_Johnny

Can’t be bothered to look and list them, but we have had some results this season that don’t support a justified 14th placed team, or us being mentality weak. One of the Man City games, four fifths of the Barca games and PSG spring to mind.

34 points on the bench and 48 on the pitch, thus far this week. Gutted. Bench boost could have been amazing! (7 players with a game left).

Gameweek 34 Sunderland 0-1 Forest Fulham 1-2 Villa Liverpool 1-1 Palace West Ham 1-0 Everton Wolves 2-3 Spurs Arsenal 2-2 Newcastle Man United 2-1 Brentford

Pulled this together following chat in Relegationometer, but probably belongs here. Lots of discussion re our proneness to late goals and suggestion we are running out of steam/don’t have mentality to finish matches. May be truth in that! But this gives a slightly different perspective on our proneness to late goals. Including cup games, we have scored 26 goals and conceded 25, from 71 mins onwards. Couple of things stand out for me re leaking goals, the number we concede at the end of the first half 41-50 mins, and how many we have conceded beyond 90 minutes; some real sucker punches. Plus how many we score/few we concede in first ten minutes.

This gives a slightly different perspective on our proneness to late goals. Including cup games, we have scored 26 goals and conceded 25, from 71 mins onwards. Couple of things stand out for me re leaking goals, the number we concede at the end of the first half 41-50 mins, and how many we have conceded beyond 90 minutes; some real sucker punches. Plus how many we score/few we concede in first ten minutes.

Odd that we’re one of only two teams (Fulham) who haven’t conceded in the first ten minutes.

You’re a star! Thank you.

Most valid comparison to make is probably against goals conceded in other ‘10 minute’ periods (assuming there is usually around 5 mins of added time). Then, if the 16 conceded looks excessive, you should compare to other teams to see if it is just us or it is common for teams to concede a disproportionate number of their goals late on. Fuck it I’m interested now, might have to feed my numbers habit!

How about Post Town Moor? PTM, makes it sound like a disease or menstrual cycle related (kinda works). It takes into account the early genesis of our troubles at the end of last season/in the summer. And stops us mentioning the C word (I mean cup…) as it has evidently hexed us.

🎵 Far have I travelled and much have I seen… 🎵 and I think they’re canny tunes.

Has played fantastically (often against us) could do again and might be a gettable replacement should one of the usuals leave.

A) there are differing views along a continuum of has to stay, has to go. Nobody ‘knows’ what is best for NUFC; but we all want the best. B) divisiveness, externalising and blaming which goes with it is responsible for the worst decisions, atrocities, and every ‘ism’ you can think of in the history of mankind. C) your own Worzel Gummidge is getting bigger.

He says creating a divisive ‘us and them’ notion and strawman of his own.

Aye, thanks for the GCSE stats lesson 👍

True. Sorry just couldn’t resist the easy quip. ‘Willis’ was talking about a frame of mind, we/people tend to like simple answers to disappointments. Responding emotionally and blaming Howe (in this case) for everything: ‘his’ signings, ‘he’ was given £250m, ‘he’ just watches can’t coach, doesn’t know what to do, the players aren’t playing well for ‘him’ is just all a bit adolescent and grasping. We’re all disappointed. But good decisions are rarely made by hot heads.

Your frame of mind 😉

Good context. It isn’t what people want to hear, but I genuinely think that the safest strategy is looking at past performance and holding in mind that we have a manager who has been golden. What evidence is there, and remember we are in the realms of predicting the future, that he can’t be again?

Why people don’t like complicated answers to disappointing occurrences: “People often dislike complicated answers to disappointments because they are seeking emotional validation, simplicity, and swift resolution rather than a complex justification. Disappointment is fundamentally a feeling of sadness or deflated expectation, and long explanations can feel like an invalidation of that pain, or an attempt to avoid accountability.”

Last 'Stat attack' but worth considering the idea that past performance maybe be a better predictor of future performance than disappointment fuelled predictions of what the future would hold if we stick rather than twist.

Another set of numbers to view Eddie Howe's managerial competency through. He's won over half of the games we have played. His win record in the premier league is bettered only by Keegan (51%). Robson comes in third with 44%. His win record this season (36%) which has been tough to take, is actually still better than most of managers in recent times. So maybe part of the extreme emotional reactions is a loved manager falling from a Keegan/Robson level of return to close to the level of a Pardew (37% wins in 155 games) or a Dalglish (34% wins in 56 games). Though interestingly, Howe's bad season is still much more palatable than Rafa's total PL record for us; winning 31% of 86 games.

Here is the record by Howe and co. broken down by half season. The 22 points for 2026 is estimated assuming we get the same woeful 1.16 points per game from the last five games, as we have achieved from the first 14. Couple of things stand out for me. Firstly, this season is different (which is a statistical 'no shit Sherlock...'). Secondly, it still doesn't massively pull down his averages overall. 63 points fairly evenly picked up across the season. So maybe, it is best considered as being a blip rather than tailspin. I think it has been even harder to take the decline as many believed we would step up a level this season. Personally, despite the last minute deals in the summer and unaware of how many games we would end-up playing, or how the newbies would/wouldn't perform, I was expecting us to put to together our best two halves (long shot at a pun, intended...) and achieve something like the 38 points from the first 19 games of 2022-23 and the 38 points from the second half of 2021-22 (76 points, 2.0 points per game). Instead we have fallen off badly to way below the NUFC average PL era points per game average of 1.40 points per game.

And he doesn’t make the top 100 million on the ‘nicest guy in the world’ list!

Great site. Was hoping to see myself enter the field of play in the 1-3 1988 FA Cup loss to Wimbledon (my one and only--and very ineffectual--pitch invasion) after Wise (in my memory, but they were suggesting Gibson) was chasing Mira. After Mira had kung fu kicked Beasant. Can't believe I managed to clamber over the fence in the corner; it looks massive on the footage. The joys of being a 20 year old squaddie.