After how many games do you consider position an indicator of final position?

[thomas]

Was unsure whether or not to start a new thread for something like this.

 

But after how many games do you consider position an indicator of final position? 1/4th of the way through? halfway? three quarters? Because I'm a stat loving yank I decided to have a look at the trends.

Here are the bottom six performance charts from 2000 to 2010

 

2000-2001

http://imgur.com/NTe7q.gif

2001-2002

http://imgur.com/rDpCg.gif

2002-2003

http://imgur.com/0lu9n.gif

2003-2004

http://imgur.com/NUeRF.gif

2004-2005

http://imgur.com/CJbJf.gif

2005-2006

http://imgur.com/T6nwt.gif

2006-2007

http://imgur.com/8EaEB.gif

2007-2008

http://imgur.com/icAC5.gif

2008-2009

http://imgur.com/mju52.gif

2009-2010

http://imgur.com/lS4Tf.gif

 

The theme seems to be that going bottom 9 games (~1/4th of the way through) is going to keep you either relegated or bottom six. Other than that you need to wait until about halfway before you can really predict with accuracy if you'll be in that bottom third-ish.

 

But what about top six? Same charts from 2000 to 2010

2000-2001

http://imgur.com/sGfkh.gif

2001-2002

http://imgur.com/JilYH.gif

2002-2003

http://imgur.com/ahhK5.gif

2003-2004

http://imgur.com/A4wvM.gif

2004-2005

http://imgur.com/KvLrY.gif

2005-2006

http://imgur.com/jOYdZ.gif

2006-2007

http://imgur.com/2PBAb.gif

2007-2008

http://imgur.com/3NdVT.gif

2008-2009

http://imgur.com/20ZFu.gif

2009-2010

http://imgur.com/GE0oy.gif

 

Top three is decided early, while the other three need until about 15-16 games to decide whether or not they'll be in that running come the end of the season. A little earlier of an indicator than for the bottom six.

 

What does all this mean? First and foremost it means I'm an incredibly bored man but even better it means I'm still optimistic given our performances so far and how teams have similarly fared historically (yes I know every season is different blah blah) that there's no reason I should settle for 17 at this point.

[Dave]

Worth a thread for the effort alone.

[thomas]

cheers

[Neil]

After the Christmas/New Year period.

 

This is as open a league table I can remember at this stage of a season.

[Ishmael]

Can you put a few tables together for the teams that finish mid table?

[cp40]

after 35 games I think i can predict where we might finish.

[Taylor Swift]

You must love baseball.

 

Looks as if the shit teams settle into their positions around the 25th match +/- one or two matches. I suppose it makes sense as well since you've played every team once and have settled into form home and away.

[Kaizero]

Usually ten games in you have a decent marker, but not so much this season. Think it will be a lot clearer around 20.

[thomas]

Can you put a few tables together for the teams that finish mid table?

absolutely not Statto.com is pretty hand for this kind of ridiculous crap though

 

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2000-2001/table 

 

check off the middle 8 and hit "group comparison" 

[Beren]

Good effort on the OP

 

Interesting read (does it count as a read if it's just pictures? ) that.

[bigfella]

Now this makes interesting reading

 

 

 

http://www.mirrorfootball.co.uk/opinion/blogs/mirror-football-blog/Will-Arsenal-be-Premier-League-champions-in-May-Will-West-Ham-Sunderland-and-Blackpool-be-relegated-Maths-boffins-give-you-an-idea-with-their-Performance-League-predictor-article623411.html

[Guest firetotheworks]

After February. February is notoriously shit.

[Cajun]

About 38 games.

[Dokko]

"What does all this mean?  First and foremost it means I'm an incredibly bored man" 

[David28]

Wow, impressive all those graphs. But after all that beer, too complicated for today I guess.

[Interpolic]

Can you put a few tables together for the teams that finish mid table?

 

[Ishmael]

Have looked at a few comparison tables for the bottom 8 teams and it seems to take 10-15 games for the table to 'settle down'.

[Rob W]

Worth a thread for the effort alone.

 

:clap: :clap:

[Rob W]

I reckon about halfway for the bottom - the top is set from game 8

[oldtype]

Sadly, the fact that we're fourth at the moment means very little because there's a metric fuckton of teams concentrated right about where we are.

 

It's a nice symbolic position to be in though.

[Ameritoon]

I usually give it until Christmas before I make a full judgment on any team (except Derby). But, like somebody said already, February is usually the time where teams start falling into their place. These tables show a bit otherwise though, seems like most teams decline into place after five games or so.

[Guest Haris Vuckic]

''Sunderland’s humiliation by Newcastle last Sunday had been coming, according to the facts.''

 

Too fucking right.

[wormy]

Wow, fair play on the research thomas. So baically, the 15 game mark is where the relegation fight generally sets in. Top 3, like you say, clears up pretty quickly. But the thing is, this season is the most open in a long time. I know that seems to be said most seasons.

 

The champions are decided, that's Chelsea. Some of the rest is starting to clear up after today, Liverpool have dragged themselves up, same with Everton. But the bottom half is still all over the place. Overall though, I think we're in for quite a positive season, not to get my hopes up

[Guest neesy111]

I've had too much to drink to be able to read that tonight

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Well the top is really decided before the season starts, just because it's obvious who the best teams are.

 

The rest this season is really hard to predict. After 11 games we're 5th, but only 5 points away from the bottom 3. I think it will take a lot longer than usual to sort out this season, I'd say about 25 games before we start to see who's likely to go down and survive.