Tribesman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Teams that win the league tend to out perform xG, I don't know why, but its a trend which has occurred in the last few seasons. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Teams that win the league tend to out perform xG, I don't know why, but its a trend which has occurred in the last few seasons. Because goals aren’t as straight forward as scoring a ‘good chance’. I bet a fair few of Leicester wins they’d have lost in this xG thing. Mahrez doesnt score goals that’d score highly on xG you’d think but he’s good enough to score those other chances. If you’ve got a midfielder who can crack a good shot from 25 yards, why’s that less of a chance of someone forcing a save from 15 yards? It’s bollocks imo. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
triggs Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Sorry but expected points is w*** man. We had the best two chances v Chelsea in the whole game yet xG had us to lose. It’s decent as a guide and that’s it. That Joelinton header off the bar was not a good chance It was 2 inches from being a goal man. How’s a good cross and good header not a good chance? It doesn't matter if it hits the bar. If someone hits the bar from a strike from 35 yards it doesn't make it a good chance. I don't think you know how expected goals works I know exactly how it works which is why I don’t agree with using the way some do. Liverpool would be 2nd under xG man. Well the way you're talking about that header it doesn't sound like you know how it works. The result has no impact on the xG of the chance. Kante also had a one on one in that game against Dubs which was probably a better chance than any of our chances. Willian had a decent chance inside the box off his left. Abraham had a chance from about 6 yards out which Dubs saved Liverpool have been lucky in many games this season but of course they are deservedly winning the league. Liverpool are very good at winning games where they are slightly the better team or even games. How many times in the league have Liverpool won without playing that great this season? Loads Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Sorry but expected points is wank man. We had the best two chances v Chelsea in the whole game yet xG had us to lose. It’s decent as a guide and that’s it. I doubt anyone's going to use these statistics as a stick to beat Klopp with, despite Liverpool being even further away from their xPTS than us. As you say, it's a guide, and using it as the driving force of an argument makes your argument a lot weaker IMO. Well, I've also watched too many games and we don't really pass the eye-test either. Which is a much more valid argument. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Sorry but expected points is w*** man. We had the best two chances v Chelsea in the whole game yet xG had us to lose. It’s decent as a guide and that’s it. That Joelinton header off the bar was not a good chance It was 2 inches from being a goal man. How’s a good cross and good header not a good chance? It doesn't matter if it hits the bar. If someone hits the bar from a strike from 35 yards it doesn't make it a good chance. I don't think you know how expected goals works I know exactly how it works which is why I don’t agree with using the way some do. Liverpool would be 2nd under xG man. Well the way you're talking about that header it doesn't sound like you know how it works. The result has no impact on the xG of the chance. Kante also had a one on one in that game against Dubs which was probably a better chance than any of our chances. Willian had a decent chance inside the box off his left. Abraham had a chance from about 6 yards out which Dubs saved Liverpool have been lucky in many games this season but of course they are deservedly winning the league. Liverpool are very good at winning games where they are slightly the better team or even games. How many times in the league have Liverpool won without playing that great this season? Loads Aye but they won those games, regardless of how they played, which is contradictory to your point Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
triggs Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Sorry but expected points is w*** man. We had the best two chances v Chelsea in the whole game yet xG had us to lose. It’s decent as a guide and that’s it. That Joelinton header off the bar was not a good chance It was 2 inches from being a goal man. How’s a good cross and good header not a good chance? It doesn't matter if it hits the bar. If someone hits the bar from a strike from 35 yards it doesn't make it a good chance. I don't think you know how expected goals works I know exactly how it works which is why I don’t agree with using the way some do. Liverpool would be 2nd under xG man. Well the way you're talking about that header it doesn't sound like you know how it works. The result has no impact on the xG of the chance. Kante also had a one on one in that game against Dubs which was probably a better chance than any of our chances. Willian had a decent chance inside the box off his left. Abraham had a chance from about 6 yards out which Dubs saved Liverpool have been lucky in many games this season but of course they are deservedly winning the league. Liverpool are very good at winning games where they are slightly the better team or even games. How many times in the league have Liverpool won without playing that great this season? Loads Aye but they won those games, regardless of how they played, which is contradictory to your point How is it contradictory? I said they're very good at it. Teams that win the league tend to outperform their xG. It's better to judge lesser teams who are more at an even playing field. Southampton were massively underperforming their xG while they were in the relegation zone, suddenly they go on a great run, it wasn't just random, they were getting unlucky earlier in the season. Same with Watford to a lesser extent Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweMag Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 I’ve just seen the press conference with Steve Bruce. Was asked about the takeover. As I see it... he means Lee Charnley hasn’t informed him that the takeover is done. Also ”nothing in it” = nothing to report yet. Of course something is happening. If it’s ”nothing in the takeover” why should it unsettle the squad then? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest neesy111 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Prefer raw stats like Dubravka having to make 99 saves in 24 games when he’d only had to make 121 in his previous 50. How many of these were long range shots? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 It’s not an exact science, of course it and predict every single win or loss, it’s basically showing you who is creating the best goal scoring chances, it’s useful for looking at teams who’s form is unsustainable, like triggs said the lower sides. It doesn’t factor in the quality of the player taking the shot, it’s just a good way to look at statistic outliers. I think it’s crazy people are calling it bollocks when near enough everyone on here has said we are lucky to be winning and that’s exactly what the XG is bearing out XG last season we were 16th only just better off than Cardiff, would you say that was an accurate indication of the season? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
triggs Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 It’s not an exact science, of course it and predict every single win or loss, it’s basically showing you who is creating the best goal scoring chances, it’s useful for looking at teams who’s form is unsustainable, like triggs said the lower sides. It doesn’t factor in the quality of the player taking the shot, it’s just a good way to look at statistic outliers. I think it’s crazy people are calling it bollocks when near enough everyone on here has said we are lucky to be winning and that’s exactly what the XG is bearing out Aye, anyone watching us could tell you that we've been shite this season. Same as anyone watching Liverpool this season could tell you that they've been really clinical without performing that great in lots of games. That's just what the xG is telling you. It isn't an exact science of course. Its basically just if 11 were up against 11 and each player is the average player what the average result would be. If say Arjen Robben cuts in on his left and hits one in the far top corner, that's obviously much more likely to happen that if it was the average player but that doesn't tell you anything about how well Bayern played. How many times have we heard "Barca are playing shite" in the last few years? They get away with it because they have Messi who's the best player in the world and constantly outperforms his xG Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bimpy474 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 I’ve just seen the press conference with Steve Bruce. Was asked about the takeover. As I see it... he means Lee Charnley hasn’t informed him that the takeover is done. Also ”nothing in it” = nothing to report yet. Of course something is happening. If it’s ”nothing in the takeover” why should it unsettle the squad then? That's a Pardew level excuse in case we lose to Norwich, utter cabbage. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
geordie john Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Quite why Benitez remains so popular with the Toon Army remains a mystery to those of us outside the North East. He is still revered for not buggering off after taking them down into the Championship. In fact, it was another two years before he buggered off to Dalian Yifang to earn £12million a year after tax. But now it seems that Rafa is ready to rekindle his Geordie love affair as soon as he can get a flight out of virus-stricken China. So let’s forget the misery of his final season at Newcastle, when his team narrowly dodged relegation while playing some of the most turgid football ever seen at St James’ Park. And let’s ignore the fact that Steve Bruce is making a far better fist of things this time — despite the apathy of fans. :lol: Tell me, in what Delusional Planet do you live? Are you a real person? I fucking hate wind up merchants....... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest neesy111 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Whoosh Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiresias Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Suspect it would have happened by now, most reports suggested it was basically at the stage of ashley saying yes or no, i still bet on the latter Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
maze Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 This has never been «on», it is just another fakeover.... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duo Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 This has never been «on», it is just another fakeover.... Cause Ashley never wants to sell Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The Little Waster Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Kiss it all goodbye It was just a clever lie ... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
maze Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 This has never been «on», it is just another fakeover.... Cause Ashley never wants to sell Can’t believe anybody actually believed in this. I mean yeah, a good buzz and read, but you know it is just lies by now... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Well it's not lies...but was never going to happen. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketsbaia Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Why is everyone suddenly pessimistic tonight? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Suddenly? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robster Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Why is everyone suddenly pessimistic tonight? History. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Facundo Ferreyra Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Why is everyone suddenly pessimistic tonight? You must be new here I'm not particularly pessimistic. I reckon it'll happen at some point. But I'm a thick cunt Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sean Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Suddenly? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsunami Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Aye, nowts changed. Be amazed if it happens though Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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