Relegationometer

[Happinesstan]

Although we're making our own luck at the moment, I can't see it lasting. We'll hit reality soon enough. Question is whether Bruce can arrest the inevitable slump. I doubt it.

[Guest]

Although we're making our own luck at the moment, I can't see it lasting. We'll hit reality soon enough. Question is whether Bruce can arrest the inevitable slump. I doubt it.

 

It’s 1 league win in 6 games, these injury-time goals are papering over a shitload of cracks.

 

[Guest neesy111]

Although we're making our own luck at the moment, I can't see it lasting. We'll hit reality soon enough. Question is whether Bruce can arrest the inevitable slump. I doubt it.

 

It’s 1 league win in 6 games, these injury-time goals are papering over a shitload of cracks.

 

 

Although it's 5 points from Wolves, Everton and Chelsea.

[Guest]

3 of those points from the late goals that are papering over cracks.

[El Hozzo]

4, no?

[Guest]

4, no?

 

We’d have still earned 1 point v Chelsea.

[El Hozzo]

right, yeah  (note to self, drink coffee before posting)

 

still :

 

Although it's 5 points from Wolves, Everton and Chelsea

3 of those points from the late goals that are papering over cracks

 

it is actually 4 from the 5...  it would have been 2 instead of 5 without the late goals, but we earned 4 points from the last two games with the late goals so ...

 

lets both be right...

[samptime29]

I expected 1-2 points from Wolves, Chelsea, Everton, so 5 points has to be classed as a success.

 

Beat Norwich, and we're 33 points with 13 games left. Would be a very solid position to be in tbf.

[Marmoset]

3 of those points from the late goals that are papering over cracks.

 

Are late goals any less valid or any more lucky than goals scored at any other point in the match? Seen a few people saying this and also when other teams do it but I don't really follow the logic of why

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Football's a weird sport really, it's a bit too easy for teams just to defend and hope to nick something. We can minimise the amount of goals we let in, there's always a chance to grab something.

 

I haven't watched enough games to say how much is down to luck, doesn't really matter that much. At the end of the day the objective is equally futile... stay up so we can stay up next year.

[Guest reefatoon]

Agree with you Ian, but would probably change the word "weird" for "shit".  For the exact reason you mention straight after. It's all about trying not to get beat and sitting back, it just takes all the excitement out of it. The game as a whole now is crap and boring.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Well, one of the attractions is the boredom with the ever-present possibility that something exciting might happen at any time. But I know what you mean.

[Guest]

3 of those points from the late goals that are papering over cracks.

 

Are late goals any less valid or any more lucky than goals scored at any other point in the match? Seen a few people saying this and also when other teams do it but I don't really follow the logic of why

 

No they’re not any different, but surely you can see they’ve been out of keeping with the previous 96 minutes of action beforehand? It’s hardly like we’re battering teams a la Man Utd and scoring the winner in Fergie time, we’ve literally been poor and somehow nabbed these goals from nothing.

[Stottie]

Jonathan Wilson or one of the Opta people said it last season but most of the PL games where one team has had 70% possession have happened in the last two seasons. It's a new way of playing. Leicester also won the league with under 50% possession, again as a new phenomenon.

 

The way we play looks really really bad and conventional thinking says there must be a reversion to the mean. I guess one is coming, but possibly not as sharply as some people think. We don't give away many clear-cut chances and have a top 4 or 5 keeper. Everton played us off the park but their first goal was a flukey finish and the second a rare mistake from us.

[La Parka]

It's the counter to possession football though isn't it. Pack the defence and midfield, deny space, deny goalscoring opportunity and hit hard and fast on the break.

[Cf]

Jonathan Wilson or one of the Opta people said it last season but most of the PL games where one team has had 70% possession have happened in the last two seasons. It's a new way of playing. Leicester also won the league with under 50% possession, again as a new phenomenon.

 

The way we play looks really really bad and conventional thinking says there must be a reversion to the mean. I guess one is coming, but possibly not as sharply as some people think. We don't give away many clear-cut chances and have a top 4 or 5 keeper. Everton played us off the park but their first goal was a flukey finish and the second a rare mistake from us.

 

We have the second highest xGA in the league!

[AyeDubbleYoo]

There's such a divide between the elite teams and the rest now, you don't really have a choice but to give up the ball and try to counter.

 

Difference is we do it against Man City and against Norwich.

[NUFC_Chris]

3 of those points from the late goals that are papering over cracks.

Pessimistic Nut 

I agree with you, but I thought after our downturn in form after Christmas that we'd struggle to turn it round. We have to be fair to him. We've got Norwich, Palace, Southampton and Burnley still all to play over the next month and a half so we'll see where we are after that run of games. Hopefully safe.

[Strawberry]

I feel like the survival point will be higher than 40.

[Dan Gleebals]

Our football is shocking and unbelievably painful to watch. We are not really defending our way to safety either - as said, our GD proves that.  We have been incredibly lucky. 

 

Our only redeeming feature IMO is the closeness of the squad - they work very hard for each other, this is without doubt.  I personally think this will be enough for safety this year, although a lot could still depend on the injuries we seem to be picking up.

 

We will get to 40 something points.

 

 

[Stottie]

We have the second highest xGA in the league!

 

Dubs over the season is worth ten below xGA!

[STM]

Depends which newcastle you watch. When we are backs against the wall, we defend incredibly and I have the utmost confidence that we wont concede but sometimes, like the Everton game we leave gaps.

 

I think the Longstaff brothers are a big reason for this. They aren't disciplined enough and often try to play their way out of trouble.

[Guest]

Would be typical to lose on Saturday, get dragged into a relegation scrap then the Saudis pull out until we’re guaranteed safety.

[johnny36]

West Ham have a tough set of fixtures coming up.. They need a result against Brighton on Saturday

[TRon]

Football's a weird sport really, it's a bit too easy for teams just to defend and hope to nick something. We can minimise the amount of goals we let in, there's always a chance to grab something.

 

I haven't watched enough games to say how much is down to luck, doesn't really matter that much. At the end of the day the objective is equally futile... stay up so we can stay up next year.

 

 

The games I have watched it has been mostly down to luck. We weren't great to watch under Rafa either, but it never looked like a fluke when we won, if anything it looked like we got robbed on some occasions.