Relegationometer

[Guest neesy111]

I always believe around this time of the season you can add 6 points to your total and look at where that would get you- as there is easily realistically enough games to gain 2 more wins than anyone around you. Of course that works the other way, dont even need to look at what -6 points would do.

 

 

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[mrmojorisin75]

The writing's on the wall. Without investment we're down and out.

[Slim]

The writing's on the wall. Without investment we're down and out.

 

Spent 50 Mil in three seasons..what more do you want.

I keep getting told nar man Mike Ashley spent loads

[mrmojorisin75]

The writing's on the wall. Without investment we're down and out.

 

Spent 50 Mil in three seasons..what more do you want.

I keep getting told nar man Mike Ashley spent loads

 

By whom?

[geordiedean]

Whoever thinks we are a good team wants their head read. We are a fragile mentally weak pile of shit. 22 goals conceded in 10 games proves that. We concede for fun at around 2.2 goals per game so far. Shit teams can't keep scoring 3 to win

 

6 points after 10 games means at least 32 from remaining 28. I'll be amazed if we stay up to be honest

[Stottie]

Based on the last four-five games, our attack looks mid-table, which it didn't in the first five games. That's not just off the Norwich game btw. However, I'm only talking about the first team, and the backups go from poor to very poor.

 

Our defence is still bottom three, going back to the Pardew era, and now has Rob Eliot in it.

 

So, it's going to be a rough season. I think our attack has the required 9 wins in it easily, but our defence and midfield cover are still capable of effing things up for them.

[Lush Vlad]

Depends how much that result has killed the players' confidence.  But more importantly, how it has affected McClaren.  I thought we were great first half, without creating too many clear cut chances.  Played on the front foot (fuck you Pardew) and dominated the game, really.  I just hope McClaren doesn't go into his shell and try and change up how we play.  The defence is horrendous, so we may as well keep with the attacking approach.

 

If we curl up and try and play negatively, the same way Pardew did in the past.  Then I think we'll go down with an extremely low points total.  Keep on like we have the last two games and I think it's 13th-14th and out of trouble with games to spare. 

[George Bailey]

With current manager a solid 8/9 out of 10. He is proving himself a rapid failure, actually considering his last moths within management, he is just proving that he is a failure.

 

Change and down to 5/6.

 

We are a poor side. defensively and in midfield.

With a new manager our chances improve imo, and of course massive, targeted and wise spending in January.

[Varadi]

With current manager a solid 8/9 out of 10. He is proving himself a rapid failure, actually considering his last moths within management, he is just proving that he is a failure.

 

Change and down to 5/6.

 

We are a poor side. defensively and in midfield.

With a new manager our chances improve imo, and of course massive, targeted and wise spending in January.

 

What, reagardless of who the new man is? What if it's Kinnear or Carver?

[Mistle17]

Very tough games coming up. By the time we play Everton on boxing day we'll be doing well to have 15 points. Very well.

 

The more I think about it the more fucked I think we are- not that it really matters tbh. If going down means Ashley is more willing to sell then let it be.

 

[Wallsendmag]

We're more than quarter of the way through the season now and we've amassed 6 points. We've looked a decent team at times and a total shambles more often than not. Villa will be hoping for a new manager bounce, mackems carry a lot of luck and none of the 3 promoted teams look like they'll flounder the way QPR and to a lesser extent Burnley did last season.

 

I think we're going down this year.

[Mistle17]

We deserve to go down tbh. The way the club has been run and is run, we don't deserve to be in the top flight.

 

I'm not just saying it but the PL Is utter shit anyway- I won't miss it for one minute tbh, it's total bullshit. It could almost be a blessing going down to deny Ashley that tv money.

[George Bailey]

With current manager a solid 8/9 out of 10. He is proving himself a rapid failure, actually considering his last moths within management, he is just proving that he is a failure.

 

Change and down to 5/6.

 

We are a poor side. defensively and in midfield.

With a new manager our chances improve imo, and of course massive, targeted and wise spending in January.

 

What, reagardless of who the new man is? What if it's Kinnear or Carver?

 

No mate, but a change imo, even a temporary one for this season only to someone who can galvanise this squad would give us a better chance.

Not just anyone (Carver etc) but maybe as unpalatable as it would be, an Allardyce ish appt would imo work in giving us a better chance.

 

imo our current manager is a failure and will see us down. Investment is obliviously vital in Jan...

Solid, experienced CH, left back and DM are the keys for me..and a keeper on loan.

[mrmojorisin75]

We deserve to go down tbh. The way the club has been run and is run, we don't deserve to be in the top flight.

 

I'm not just saying it but the PL Is utter shit anyway- I won't miss it for one minute tbh, it's total bullshit. It could almost be a blessing going down to deny Ashley that tv money.

 

Wonder what Ashley would think of it all. Goaded into a live TV interview for the first time making promises he backs up with the continued appointment of Lee Charnley and his litany of failure.

 

He's going to look like an absolute fucking fool and I can not see the man taking kindly to that.

[Interpolic]

Think we'll be areet still tbh, been saying the same for ages. Need to really step up the next 4 games but we're playing some good stuff at times. Far worse Newcastle sides than this down the years have been fine.

 

[mrmojorisin75]

Think we'll be areet still tbh, been saying the same for ages. Need to really step up the next 6 games but we're playing some good stuff at times. Far worse Newcastle sides than this down the years have been fine.

 

I'm inclined to agree, but as I've said today we'll need at least 3 top quality players in January or we will go down. Can't see the squad having enough as it is.

 

What if Mitrovic gets injured foot example? The whole plan is then fucked and it's Riviere or Cisse.

[midds]

The 38-40 point benchmark is a little misleading too. To stay up you've got to be better than 3 other sides, the points total doesn't really come into it and as poor as we are I think we'll finish above at least 3 other sides. We've had one of the worst starts to a league season in our history and are only 2 points behind 17th, 3 behind 16th etc. Not trying to spin this as success by any stretch but I think we'll survive.

[Mr Logic]

We should win the next two anyway, Stoke H, Bournmouth A.

 

Then we've expected to win a couple of others before now.

[Dave]

Bournemouth away is a certain defeat.

 

[Interpolic]

The 38-40 point benchmark is a little misleading too. To stay up you've got to be better than 3 other sides, the points total doesn't really come into it and as poor as we are I think we'll finish above at least 3 other sides. We've had one of the worst starts to a league season in our history and are only 2 points behind 17th, 3 behind 16th etc. Not trying to spin this as success by any stretch but I think we'll survive.

The distribution of points this season has been a bit odd. Not that we're necessarily making the same point here but people keep rightly going on about Chelsea's terrible form but they're only 11 points off the top with 3 quarters of the season to go. If they sorted themselves out they could actually challenge again.

[Disco]

For us, the important thing is that AFCB and Norwich continue to flounder and the mackems/Villa get the same new manager bounce that we got.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Sunderland look awful, they're very much headed for the drop IMO.

[Ketsbaia]

Yep and Garde has a tough start. It's almost certainly between us 5 and perhaps Watford.

[thomas]

Was bored and American so decided see what the trend had been in recent times in terms of relegation chances after 10 games.

 

Caveats aside that of course the game isn't played on paper and stats are the devil's abacus: if you're in the bottom 3 after 10 games it's still close to a coin-flip: 24 of the 45 teams in the bottom three after 10 games (53%) over the last 15 years have gone on to be relegated.

 

 

 

Bold indicates a relegated team was in the bottom 3 after 10 games.

Year	Bottom 3 After 10 Games	Bottom 3 at season end
2014-15	Leicester, QPR, Burnley	Hull, Burnley, QPR
2013-14	Norwich, Sunderland, Crystal Palace	Norwich, Fulham, Cardiff City
2012-13	Reading, QPR, Southampton	Wigan, Reading, QPR
2011-12	Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan	Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves
2010-11	Blackburn, Wolves, West Ham	Birmingham City, Blackpool, West Ham
2009-10	Hull, West Ham, Portsmouth	Burnley, Hull, Portsmouth
2008-09	Wigan, Bolton, Tottenham	Newcastle United, Middlesbrough, West Brom
2007-08	Tottenham, Derby, Bolton	Reading, Birmingham City, Derby
2006-07	Watford, Sheffield United, Charlton	Sheffield United, Charlton, Watford
2005-06	Everton, Birmingham City, Sunderland	Birmingham City, West Brom, Sunderland
2004-05	Southampton, Norwich, Blackburn	Crystal Palace, Norwich, Southampton
2003-04	Bolton, Leeds, Leicester	Leicester, Leeds, Wolves
2002-03	Man CIty, Sunderland, Bolton	West Ham, West Brom, Sunderland
2001-02	Derby, Southampton, Leicester	Ipswich, Derby, Leicester
2000-01	West Ham, Bradford, Derby	Man City, Coventry, Bradford

 

 

[Wallsendmag]

Sunderland look awful, they're very much headed for the drop IMO.

 

We've said that for years only for them to put together a freak run in April/May that nets them 15 points or so from their last 6/7 games. They're a terrible side, worse than us, but the luck they get when they really need it is incredible and has kept them up for the past 3 years. If yesterday is anything to go by they're still carrying it all as well.

 

Think them and Villa will get out of it providing Villa appoint a competent manager and it'll be between ourselves, Bournemouth and either Watford for the drop.