Relegationometer

[TRon]

Probably 3 from 8 now.

 

It's a massive IF, but should all 3 home teams win tomorrow, the table would close up again and drag it back to 11 teams.

 

Except one of those home games is us and we are playing Man U. Unless we get a ref handing us a penalty and a player from the opposition getting sent off like Watford benefitted from last week I don't see us winning. The list of teams who can reallistically go down is growing worryingly smaller.

[Altamullan]

The predicted total points looks like being enough; if we stay behind the predictions, by the same margin (achieve 74%), then we’re looking at a 38 point haul, rather than 51 points.  (25 Feb, update).

Thought I would 'classify' and colour code our fixtures according to finishing position last year of opposition  treating the top seven (15 point gap between Everton 7th and Southampton 8th) as RED (least likely to beat), next six as AMBER, and remaining four, plus promoted sides as GREEN. To make this pseudo-scientific cluster-f*** even more elaborate, opposition moves up or down a category depending if home or away if we are playing a RED team at SJP it becomes an AMBER fixture; and a GREEN team away becomes an AMBER fixture (I know this ignores our relatively better away form, last year).

 

Point is (other than I am bored and NUFC obsessed...) this should give, based on last year's form/squads, a sense of the relative difficulty of different periods of the season. So:

August:

Spurs H PRED 1 Lost ACT 0

Huddersfield A PRED 2 Lost ACT 0

West Ham H PRED 5 Won ACT 3

September:

Swansea A PRED 6 Won ACT 6

Stoke H PRED 9 Won ACT 9

Brighton A PRED 10  Lost ACT 9

Liverpool H PRED 11 Drew ACT 10

October:

Southampton A PRED 11 Drew ACT 11

Palace H  PRED 14 Won ACT 14

Burnley A PRED 15 Lost ACT 14

November:

Bournemouth H PRED 18 Lost ACT 14

Man Utd A PRED 18 Lost ACT 14 

Watford H PRED 21 Lost ACT 14

WBA A PRED 22 Drew ACT 15 

December:

Chelsea A PRED 22 Lost ACT 15

Leicester H PRED 25 Lost ACT 15

Everton H PRED 26 Lost ACT 15

Arsenal A PRED 26 Lost ACT 15

West Ham A PRED 26 Won ACT 18

Man City H PRED 27 Lost ACT 18

Brighton H  PRED 30 Drew ACT 19

January:

Stoke A PRED 30 Won ACT 22

Swansea H PRED 33 Drew ACT 23

Man City A PRED 33 Lost ACT 23

Burnley H PRED 36 Drew ACT 24

February:

Palace A PRED 37 Drew ACT 25

Man Utd H PRED 38  Won ACT 28[/b]

Bournemouth A PRED 39 Drew ACT 29

March:

Liverpool A PRED 39

Southampton H PRED 42

Spurs A PRED 42

Huddersfield H PRED 45

April:

Leicester A PRED 45

Arsenal H PRED 46

Everton A PRED 46

WBA H PRED 49

May:

Watford A PRED 50

Chelsea H PRED 51

[Guest chopey]

Win one lose one till the end of the season and we'll be sorted

[TRon]

Win one lose one till the end of the season and we'll be sorted

 

I assume you're taking the piss given our form this season.

[Twinport53]

Win the next 12 and we might scrape EL qualification.

[Altamullan]

Win the next 12 and we might scrape EL qualification.

I don’t want to appear greedy/delusional. So I’ll settle for a Leicester 2014-15: win 6, draw 2 of last 12. 

(They’d only won six prior to that as well, I think).

[TRon]

There's going to be a lot more surprise results going into the last third of the season with a bunch of teams having nothing to play for. We'll have to get three wins from somewhere if we are going to stay up, no one is doing us any favours.

[Guest covmag]

There's going to be a lot more surprise results going into the last third of the season with a bunch of teams having nothing to play for. We'll have to get three wins from somewhere if we are going to stay up, no one is doing us any favours.

 

hate being like this. nothing ever goes for us when we need a few results to help and we seem incapable of digging ourselves out of it every time.

 

today i'm not feeling good.

[leffe186]

Win the next 12 and we might scrape EL qualification.

I don’t want to appear greedy/delusional. So I’ll settle for a Leicester 2014-15: win 6, draw 2 of last 12. 

(They’d only won six prior to that as well, I think).

 

You got ten games right, at least. Your predictions for the next twelve would leave you on 39 points. Would you take that?

 

Remaining predictions - wins against Soton (H), Huddersfield (H), WBA (H); draws against Man U (H), Bournemouth (A), Arsenal (H), Watford (A), Chelsea (H).

[Altamullan]

Personally, I’d snap your hand off.

[Guest covmag]

Win the next 12 and we might scrape EL qualification.

I don’t want to appear greedy/delusional. So I’ll settle for a Leicester 2014-15: win 6, draw 2 of last 12. 

(They’d only won six prior to that as well, I think).

 

You got ten games right, at least. Your predictions for the next twelve would leave you on 39 points. Would you take that?

 

Remaining predictions - wins against Soton (H), Huddersfield (H), WBA (H); draws against Man U (H), Bournemouth (A), Arsenal (H), Watford (A), Chelsea (H).

 

in a heart beat

[Ketsbaia]

My predictor had Huddersfield winning this and still going down on 35...... but this doesn't feel good at all.

 

[M4]

We're paying for the last two results here. We need a saviour this afternoon.

[BlackandWhite]

We are so fucked.

 

Nowhere near the quality to dig ourselves out the hole we are in.

 

And we won’t be coming back up in a flash this time either. Can see us getting into, and losing, the play-offs next year.

[Big Geordie]

'8' for me, today.

[Si]

[Guest firetotheworks]

Still a 5. I had all of these predictions as they are for the weekend. Unfortunately I also predicted a Newcastle win.

[George Bailey]

5 at the moment still.

After today probs notching up to a 6/7

[gdm]

Think if we can get the keeper, Kenedy and slimani in the team all at same time we’ll pick up enough points

[Decky]

4 wins to 40 points. I don't think 40 will be safe this year the way it's going.

[toon25]

Think if we can get the keeper, Kenedy and slimani in the team all at same time we’ll pick up enough points

 

Agreed. We’ve got more threat on the wings since Kenedy came in, we just need a striker that we know can finish.

 

 

[samptime29]

What a rollercoaster of a weekend 

 

Massive win obviously, but pleasing that it brings Watford, Bournemouth, West Ham back into the scramble.

 

 

[timeEd32]

Can’t get an unexpected win they said.

 

Can’t win at home they said.

 

It’s so tight in the bottom half, but we just made a lot of clubs feel uncomfortable with that. Need Liverpool and Chelsea to do what they should do.

[Skeletor]

I'll revise up to an 8 on the basis of home win, beating a top 10 side and Dubravka emerging as our defensive lord and saviour. Hope Slimani has a similar impact to the other 2 loanees.

[afar]

It's weird to think that 10 more points from 11 games (which should be more than possible) will get us to 38. But that might not be enough. This weekend could kill WBA, they  really need to win their game because if they don't they are 7 points adrift, that's way too much at this stage.