Eddie Howe

[Holmesy]

1 minute ago, madras said:

He didn't play 433 until he came here. 

I should have added 'while he's been here'. I've no idea what formation he played at Bournemouth but he doesn't seem very keen to move away from his new preferred style. He's has every chance to sign a number 10 since he's been here, and has chosen not to. 

[nufcjmc]

2 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

I should have added 'while he's been here'. I've no idea what formation he played at Bournemouth but he doesn't seem very keen to move away from his new preferred style. He's has every chance to sign a number 10 since he's been here, and has chosen not to. 

No idea how accurate but a decent skim read from what I can tell.

 

https://learning.coachesvoice.com/cv/eddie-howe-newcastle-bournemouth-tactics/

[madras]

17 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

I should have added 'while he's been here'. I've no idea what formation he played at Bournemouth but he doesn't seem very keen to move away from his new preferred style. He's has every chance to sign a number 10 since he's been here, and has chosen not to. 

At Bournemouth he was always (well mostly, except when playing Chelsea and he'd go 5 at the back) 4411, he went 433 here because it got the best out of what he had. Do you think playing Wolt in the middle as a 9 gets the best from him ?

[huss9]

8 hours ago, The Prophet said:

Howe is still learning how to manage a schedule with European football because he's new to it, whereas someone like Emery is seasoned in that regard.

 

He'll crack it, it's just a case of how long it takes.

may not need to again for a couple of years.

[madras]

8 hours ago, The Prophet said:

Howe is still learning how to manage a schedule with European football because he's new to it, whereas someone like Emery is seasoned in that regard.

 

He'll crack it, it's just a case of how long it takes.

Hes also been unlucky with injuries, ours seem to come in clusters. If we have  3 injuries its all Full backs or all centre halves

[elbee909]

One loss to Sunderland and a bunch of votes yes. What a bunch of wazzocks.

[et tu brute]

31 minutes ago, elbee909 said:

One loss to Sunderland and a bunch of votes yes. What a bunch of wazzocks.

Shut up man 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2025 by et tu brute

[Pilko]

Get a cup of tea for this one if you can be arsed, this is a HTT-style length of the Magna Carta special.

 

I've tried to come up with a scoring system for every game since the cup final to make a bit more sense of things. Before going through this exercise I'd say i'm somewhere in the middle somewhere of the two main camps, the positive camp (Eddie will sort it, great history of getting back on track after a rocky period, still only a few league wins off Europe & still in all three cups) and the negative camp (games since cup final largely been a chore to watch, too much late goal leakage, poor use of summer funds, seems bereft of ideas).

 

Where I've got to is that I think it's the nature of either the performances or the manner in which the result has arrived rather than the results on their own that has quite a lot of people, to varying degrees, asking questions about where we go from here (with or without the manager depending on viewpoint). I've included scoring or conceding late as I think that has a pretty large bearing on how you feel about a result if it's been snatched away late or gained something right at the death.

 

The system I've settled on is as follows. There are many holes in this & it won't be perfect.

 

0 points for a loss

1 point for a draw

2 points for a win

 

-1 point for poor performance 

-1 point for conceding a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome 

-1 point for a loss with a 2+ goal margin 

0 points for OK/fine/meh performance - mixed bag or "did the job" type showing 

+1 point for good performance 

+1 point for scoring a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome

+1 point for a win with 2+ goal margin

 

So in theory you could have a max score per game of +5 and a minimum score of -3, meaning 1 is the mid point. The idea here is to offset unfortunate losses or draws with performance points to give a measure of how we're playing, but also give extra marks when we've really put sides to the sword. I've been fair as I can and there were 4 occasions when I really wavered between 0/+1 or 0/-1 for performance points and on all of those occasions I went with the extreme of the two. If I couldn't remember I referred to EH's remarks after the game for a steer.

 

This is obviously open to interpretation and others will have different viewpoints on the performance variable, but here goes:

 

(2024/25)

 

Brentford (h), 2-1 win: fairly close game, performance described by the manager as "not pretty" but ultimately did the job. 2 points

 

Leicester (a), 3-0 win: scored early, played well, pissed it. 4 points

 

Man U (h), 4-1 win: ran away with it second half, scored some really nice goals. 4 points

 

Palace (h), 5-0 win: took the piss first half, played very well. 4 points

 

Villa (a), 4-1 loss: hung in the game for 70 mins but ultimately crumbled badly second half. -2 points

 

Ipswich (h), 3-0 win: slightly edgy first half until scoring just before HT, ran away with it comfortably second half. 4 points

 

Brighton (a), 1-1 draw: disappointing performance but got a late penalty and ultimately salvaged a decent point on the road. 2 points

 

Chelsea (h), 2-0 win: scored early, decent first half, opposition red card, clung on somewhat second half before clinching late. 3 points

 

Arsenal (a), 1-0 loss: not a bad performance as we peppered Raya early but didn't look like scoring after going a goal down early second half. 0 points

 

Everton (h), 1-0 loss: poor performance, didn't look like scoring all day, rightly beaten. -1 point

 

(2025/26)

 

Villa (a), 0-0 draw: played well but toiled a bit against ten men late on and deserved to win, ultimately hamstrung by lack of striker. 2 points

 

Liverpool (h), 3-2 loss: played well first half, played unbelievably well second half with ten men, lost to late gut punch after scoring late leveller ourselves. 1 point

 

Leeds (a), 0-0 draw: defensively strong, created next to nothing, ultimately relied on opposition being equally goal shy. 1 point

 

Wolves (h), 1-0 win: nervy game and very much a "got the job done" performance. 2 points

 

Barcelona (h), lost 2-1: ultimately we were good, but just undone by a side with far superior quality in a few moments. 1 point

 

Bournemouth (a), drew 0-0: similar to Leeds in that we were very decent at the back but a non-event going forwards. Very useful point on the road. 1 point

 

Bradford (h), won 4-1: lower league opposition put to the sword well with a changed team. 4 points

 

Arsenal (h), lost 2-1: took the lead, did not play particularly well and conceded two late, massive kick in the balls. -2 points

 

USG (a), won 4-0: never really in doubt, sub-standard opposition but played very well and took them apart ruthlessly. 4 points

 

Forest (h), won 2-0: ran into opponents in disarray but put them away with an efficient, effective showing. 3 points

 

Brighton (a), lost 2-1: manager assessed this one as a poor first half, much better in second half and dragged ourselves back into it, but we then threw it away with a shit goal late on. -1 point

 

Benfica (h), won 3-0: very good performance, racked up loads of shots on target and corners, ran away with it. 4 points

 

Fulham (h), won 2-1: another "got the job done" mixed bag of a performance but with the distinction of a last gasp winner from Bruno. 3 points

 

Spurs (h), won 2-0: more of an even game than the score suggests but ultimately did enough and didn't look troubled after the second goal. 3 points

 

West Ham (a), lost 3-1: faced opponents on long bad run, scored early and absolutely capitulated. Unable to fashion a single proper chance having gone 2-1 down on stroke of HT. -2 points

 

Bilbao (h), won 2-0: Good response to the previous game, scored early and never looked troubled after that. 4 points

 

Man City (h), won 2-1: A very good gutsy performance and deservedly won. 3 points

 

Marseille (a), lost 2-1: scored early, played well first half, ridiculous goalkeeping error and shit the bed early second half. Rallied a bit but couldn't level the game. 0 points

 

Everton (a), 4-1 win: scored early, pressed home the advantage and never looked in danger after second goal. Good performance all round. 4 points

 

Spurs (h), 2-2 draw: mixed bag of a performance including a late leveller and conceding a late leveller. 1 point

 

Burnley (h), 2-1 win: good first half, very disappointing second half against ten men, conceded late pen and then almost threw it away at the death. 2 points

 

Leverkusen (a), 2-2 draw: mixed bag performance, ultimately did well to overcome early deficit and drag ourselves into the game but conceded late to bin two points. 0 points

 

Sunderland (a), 1-0 loss: a fucking disgrace from start to finish, nuff said already by us all. -1 point

 

So, some numbers now I've gone through that exercise. 1 is the middling score, if you like, on the scale.

 

Since the cup final average: 1.72

Back end of last season average: 2.00

This season average: 1.61

Last ten games average: 1.40

All league games average: 1.48

This season league games average: 1.13

This season cup & Europe average: 2.50

All home games average: 2.37

All away games average: 0.86 (!)

 

What I'm taking from this is:

 

"We've been shit since the cup final" is a bit of a myth. We actually did class for the next 8 games other than a single blotting of the copy book away at Villa. The final two games of the season where we were quite poor and got bad results have maybe stained this narrative somewhat. This season has definitely seen a downturn in results and performances although there are some good showings and good results littered throughout 2025 (often not in the same games either).

 

Away form since the cup final is a massive, massive problem (duh: we all know this). We're class at home (still only lost to Everton, Arsenal, Liverpool and Barca in our last 19 home games). It does help we've had 19 at home vs 14 away over this sample when that's the pattern you're in but I can't hold that against us when they're not full season samples and our domestic cup draws are 2 and 0 in favour of home ties.

 

Based on this admittedly creaky scoring system, it is getting worse if you compare overall average, end of last season average, this season average and last 10 games average. There's a clear downturn in results and performances both this season and in the most recent run of games. The margins are pretty tight in most games still, which helps towards a view that it can be fixed or we simply get a bit of luck that we need sooner rather than later.

 

There's a firm possibility that the team raises itself or expends more energy in cup games. We don't know if that's driven by the manager or not, who always plays a straight bat when asked about prioritising cup games or league games with "the next game is the most important". There's a chance you could just attribute this to Europe too as we've only played two domestic cup games in this time and one was a stroll against lower division opposition. Our post midweek cup/Europe game results are a "not as bad as I expected but still not amazing" W3, D1, L4.

 

We still aren't losing many games by more than a single goal, especially if you allow West Ham and Brentford last gasp goals as us chasing the game and leaving space. Villa was the only true "out of it before stoppage time" drubbing we've taken in 33 games. We're pretty much always in every game we play and the margins are often tight, and have swung the way against us more than they have swung for us in the more even games or games we've done well in but not won. On the other side we've administered plenty more of 2+ goal wins ourselves (12 wins against 3 losses).

 

We've only scored four late goals ourselves that altered the outcome and we ended up then conceding an even later one on two of those four occasions. Only Bruno's at home to Fulham was a late winner. There's a possibility that the team are tired and not coping well with the increase in games, from both a mental and physical standpoint. We're told we get next to no training time with the schedule, which fits with this theory. But we can't just accept that we're going to piss away late points all the time, the manager needs to find a solution for it and quickly. It'll always happen from time to time but it's beyond a joke lately.

 

So where has that left my thinking?

 

It's left me probably reassessing my view slightly more in favour of it not being as bad as it feels. Margins tight, still running over plenty of sides at home, been missing key players for a lot of this season. I think the summer has played a huge part in the bad feeling with what felt like three months of knock backs and only Thiaw firmly asserting himself as a strong addition so far, the others being ranked (so far) from somewhere inbetween "promising work in progress" to "absolutely dog shit". The late goals and away form also mean that a good proportion of our games leave you with a feeling of frustration (even if the end result is actually OK) or that they were a chore to watch overall. That and a thankfully poor, tight Premier League this year is probably pointing to the fact that things aren't as fucked as I can sometimes lead myself to believe.

 

And of course, sticking to my scale, the result on Sunday goes down as -1 point but given the depth the performance plumbed and the emotional nature of the derby it's definitely having a bigger weigh-down on feeling than my sketchy system suggests on me, and others. I'd give it -10 if I was going to let myself

 

If anyone is arsed or has read this far (well done) I'll come back to this in another handful of games (maybe next 10?) and re-assess what the numbers look like.

 

Bonus points to the first "TL;DR" reply, btw. Oh, and of course other opinions are both available and welcomed.

[astraguy]

2 hours ago, elbee909 said:

One loss to Sunderland and a bunch of votes yes. What a bunch of wazzocks.

Sir bobby all over again for them

[TheBrownBottle]

58 minutes ago, astraguy said:

Sir bobby all over again for them

A man who should have been sacked earlier 

[astraguy]

47 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

A man who should have been sacked earlier 

yea, cheers for the years after 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

19 minutes ago, astraguy said:

yea, cheers for the years after 

 

Which were in no small part due to his sacking being after the season started and replacement options naturally being worse.

 

 

 

 

[JoeyBartoon]

“Attack is the best form of defence”

This is a good watch. 

[Rich]

3 hours ago, Pilko said:

Get a cup of tea for this one if you can be arsed, this is a HTT-style length of the Magna Carta special.

 

I've tried to come up with a scoring system for every game since the cup final to make a bit more sense of things. Before going through this exercise I'd say i'm somewhere in the middle somewhere of the two main camps, the positive camp (Eddie will sort it, great history of getting back on track after a rocky period, still only a few league wins off Europe & still in all three cups) and the negative camp (games since cup final largely been a chore to watch, too much late goal leakage, poor use of summer funds, seems bereft of ideas).

 

Where I've got to is that I think it's the nature of either the performances or the manner in which the result has arrived rather than the results on their own that has quite a lot of people, to varying degrees, asking questions about where we go from here (with or without the manager depending on viewpoint). I've included scoring or conceding late as I think that has a pretty large bearing on how you feel about a result if it's been snatched away late or gained something right at the death.

 

The system I've settled on is as follows. There are many holes in this & it won't be perfect.

 

0 points for a loss

1 point for a draw

2 points for a win

 

-1 point for poor performance 

-1 point for conceding a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome 

-1 point for a loss with a 2+ goal margin 

0 points for OK/fine/meh performance - mixed bag or "did the job" type showing 

+1 point for good performance 

+1 point for scoring a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome

+1 point for a win with 2+ goal margin

 

So in theory you could have a max score per game of +5 and a minimum score of -3, meaning 1 is the mid point. The idea here is to offset unfortunate losses or draws with performance points to give a measure of how we're playing, but also give extra marks when we've really put sides to the sword. I've been fair as I can and there were 4 occasions when I really wavered between 0/+1 or 0/-1 for performance points and on all of those occasions I went with the extreme of the two. If I couldn't remember I referred to EH's remarks after the game for a steer.

 

This is obviously open to interpretation and others will have different viewpoints on the performance variable, but here goes:

 

(2024/25)

 

Brentford (h), 2-1 win: fairly close game, performance described by the manager as "not pretty" but ultimately did the job. 2 points

 

Leicester (a), 3-0 win: scored early, played well, pissed it. 4 points

 

Man U (h), 4-1 win: ran away with it second half, scored some really nice goals. 4 points

 

Palace (h), 5-0 win: took the piss first half, played very well. 4 points

 

Villa (a), 4-1 loss: hung in the game for 70 mins but ultimately crumbled badly second half. -2 points

 

Ipswich (h), 3-0 win: slightly edgy first half until scoring just before HT, ran away with it comfortably second half. 4 points

 

Brighton (a), 1-1 draw: disappointing performance but got a late penalty and ultimately salvaged a decent point on the road. 2 points

 

Chelsea (h), 2-0 win: scored early, decent first half, opposition red card, clung on somewhat second half before clinching late. 3 points

 

Arsenal (a), 1-0 loss: not a bad performance as we peppered Raya early but didn't look like scoring after going a goal down early second half. 0 points

 

Everton (h), 1-0 loss: poor performance, didn't look like scoring all day, rightly beaten. -1 point

 

(2025/26)

 

Villa (a), 0-0 draw: played well but toiled a bit against ten men late on and deserved to win, ultimately hamstrung by lack of striker. 2 points

 

Liverpool (h), 3-2 loss: played well first half, played unbelievably well second half with ten men, lost to late gut punch after scoring late leveller ourselves. 1 point

 

Leeds (a), 0-0 draw: defensively strong, created next to nothing, ultimately relied on opposition being equally goal shy. 1 point

 

Wolves (h), 1-0 win: nervy game and very much a "got the job done" performance. 2 points

 

Barcelona (h), lost 2-1: ultimately we were good, but just undone by a side with far superior quality in a few moments. 1 point

 

Bournemouth (a), drew 0-0: similar to Leeds in that we were very decent at the back but a non-event going forwards. Very useful point on the road. 1 point

 

Bradford (h), won 4-1: lower league opposition put to the sword well with a changed team. 4 points

 

Arsenal (h), lost 2-1: took the lead, did not play particularly well and conceded two late, massive kick in the balls. -2 points

 

USG (a), won 4-0: never really in doubt, sub-standard opposition but played very well and took them apart ruthlessly. 4 points

 

Forest (h), won 2-0: ran into opponents in disarray but put them away with an efficient, effective showing. 3 points

 

Brighton (a), lost 2-1: manager assessed this one as a poor first half, much better in second half and dragged ourselves back into it, but we then threw it away with a shit goal late on. -1 point

 

Benfica (h), won 3-0: very good performance, racked up loads of shots on target and corners, ran away with it. 4 points

 

Fulham (h), won 2-1: another "got the job done" mixed bag of a performance but with the distinction of a last gasp winner from Bruno. 3 points

 

Spurs (h), won 2-0: more of an even game than the score suggests but ultimately did enough and didn't look troubled after the second goal. 3 points

 

West Ham (a), lost 3-1: faced opponents on long bad run, scored early and absolutely capitulated. Unable to fashion a single proper chance having gone 2-1 down on stroke of HT. -2 points

 

Bilbao (h), won 2-0: Good response to the previous game, scored early and never looked troubled after that. 4 points

 

Man City (h), won 2-1: A very good gutsy performance and deservedly won. 3 points

 

Marseille (a), lost 2-1: scored early, played well first half, ridiculous goalkeeping error and shit the bed early second half. Rallied a bit but couldn't level the game. 0 points

 

Everton (a), 4-1 win: scored early, pressed home the advantage and never looked in danger after second goal. Good performance all round. 4 points

 

Spurs (h), 2-2 draw: mixed bag of a performance including a late leveller and conceding a late leveller. 1 point

 

Burnley (h), 2-1 win: good first half, very disappointing second half against ten men, conceded late pen and then almost threw it away at the death. 2 points

 

Leverkusen (a), 2-2 draw: mixed bag performance, ultimately did well to overcome early deficit and drag ourselves into the game but conceded late to bin two points. 0 points

 

Sunderland (a), 1-0 loss: a fucking disgrace from start to finish, nuff said already by us all. -1 point

 

So, some numbers now I've gone through that exercise. 1 is the middling score, if you like, on the scale.

 

Since the cup final average: 1.72

Back end of last season average: 2.00

This season average: 1.61

Last ten games average: 1.40

All league games average: 1.48

This season league games average: 1.13

This season cup & Europe average: 2.50

All home games average: 2.37

All away games average: 0.86 (!)

 

What I'm taking from this is:

 

"We've been shit since the cup final" is a bit of a myth. We actually did class for the next 8 games other than a single blotting of the copy book away at Villa. The final two games of the season where we were quite poor and got bad results have maybe stained this narrative somewhat. This season has definitely seen a downturn in results and performances although there are some good showings and good results littered throughout 2025 (often not in the same games either).

 

Away form since the cup final is a massive, massive problem (duh: we all know this). We're class at home (still only lost to Everton, Arsenal, Liverpool and Barca in our last 19 home games). It does help we've had 19 at home vs 14 away over this sample when that's the pattern you're in but I can't hold that against us when they're not full season samples and our domestic cup draws are 2 and 0 in favour of home ties.

 

Based on this admittedly creaky scoring system, it is getting worse if you compare overall average, end of last season average, this season average and last 10 games average. There's a clear downturn in results and performances both this season and in the most recent run of games. The margins are pretty tight in most games still, which helps towards a view that it can be fixed or we simply get a bit of luck that we need sooner rather than later.

 

There's a firm possibility that the team raises itself or expends more energy in cup games. We don't know if that's driven by the manager or not, who always plays a straight bat when asked about prioritising cup games or league games with "the next game is the most important". There's a chance you could just attribute this to Europe too as we've only played two domestic cup games in this time and one was a stroll against lower division opposition. Our post midweek cup/Europe game results are a "not as bad as I expected but still not amazing" W3, D1, L4.

 

We still aren't losing many games by more than a single goal, especially if you allow West Ham and Brentford last gasp goals as us chasing the game and leaving space. Villa was the only true "out of it before stoppage time" drubbing we've taken in 33 games. We're pretty much always in every game we play and the margins are often tight, and have swung the way against us more than they have swung for us in the more even games or games we've done well in but not won. On the other side we've administered plenty more of 2+ goal wins ourselves (12 wins against 3 losses).

 

We've only scored four late goals ourselves that altered the outcome and we ended up then conceding an even later one on two of those four occasions. Only Bruno's at home to Fulham was a late winner. There's a possibility that the team are tired and not coping well with the increase in games, from both a mental and physical standpoint. We're told we get next to no training time with the schedule, which fits with this theory. But we can't just accept that we're going to piss away late points all the time, the manager needs to find a solution for it and quickly. It'll always happen from time to time but it's beyond a joke lately.

 

So where has that left my thinking?

 

It's left me probably reassessing my view slightly more in favour of it not being as bad as it feels. Margins tight, still running over plenty of sides at home, been missing key players for a lot of this season. I think the summer has played a huge part in the bad feeling with what felt like three months of knock backs and only Thiaw firmly asserting himself as a strong addition so far, the others being ranked (so far) from somewhere inbetween "promising work in progress" to "absolutely dog shit". The late goals and away form also mean that a good proportion of our games leave you with a feeling of frustration (even if the end result is actually OK) or that they were a chore to watch overall. That and a thankfully poor, tight Premier League this year is probably pointing to the fact that things aren't as fucked as I can sometimes lead myself to believe.

 

And of course, sticking to my scale, the result on Sunday goes down as -1 point but given the depth the performance plumbed and the emotional nature of the derby it's definitely having a bigger weigh-down on feeling than my sketchy system suggests on me, and others. I'd give it -10 if I was going to let myself

 

If anyone is arsed or has read this far (well done) I'll come back to this in another handful of games (maybe next 10?) and re-assess what the numbers look like.

 

Bonus points to the first "TL;DR" reply, btw. Oh, and of course other opinions are both available and welcomed.

What a fucking mint post this is.

[Sibierski]

11 hours ago, Tsunami said:

Has anyone got stats showing when we concede goals. I know we’ve not conceded in the 1st 30 minutes of a match and that we’ve conceded a fair few after 85 minutes. I’m convinced we must have conceded the most in the 1st 5 minutes after HT. I’ve not seen the stats but the number of times we come out looking like we’ve had a 15 minute snooze is remarkable.

 

We need a bit of a shake up for sure. You have to be 100% up for every game and a big part of that is down to the manager and how he wants the team to play. We have better players than the style we’re playing away from home. We look half arsed and no points from a losing position tells its own story.

 

That’s been a thing for us for a while. Even if we didn’t concede, I remember many games last season we would all be saying after half time when we kicked off, “What the fuck did we say at HT” because we started off slow. And if we didn’t even concede in those 10 minutes, it was good chances being conceded to opposition with no response. 
 

We’d then eventually get a grip, but it was a common occurrence.

[ExiledGeordie]

We’ve become Eddie Howe’s soft touch mags currently 

[Optimistic Nut]

I think tomorrow night could be the most important of his time here in terms of public opinion. If he wins and has another Cup Semi-Final to play in, we can grit our teeth through what happened on Sunday and look forward again. If we get knocked out, it could start to unravel. 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2025 by Optimistic Nut

[SUPERTOON]

Interesting to see the approach and type of player we go for should we sign anyone in January. The links suggest we will look to shop abroad, no idea what type of players the lads we are being linked with are mind.

[nufcjmc]

9 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Interesting to see the approach and type of player we go for should we sign anyone in January. The links suggest we will look to shop abroad, no idea what type of players the lads we are being linked with are mind.

Agreed while probably not accurate the rumours all point to young, abroad, sub 30m and can play in more than one position.

 

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/newcastle-united/geruechte/verein/762

 

Feel like to me the season is slipping away or at risk of the issue with young lads from abroad how long will Eddie leave them out of his thoughts to learn the Eddie way even way back when Bruno had 8 games? out of the starting lineup. 

 

Saying that we can't afford and shouldn't target prem proven elanga is a shining example that even players from this league can take a period to settle (still praying thats all there is the matter)

[Holmesy]

8 hours ago, madras said:

At Bournemouth he was always (well mostly, except when playing Chelsea and he'd go 5 at the back) 4411, he went 433 here because it got the best out of what he had. Do you think playing Wolt in the middle as a 9 gets the best from him ?

No, i've seen what everyone else has seen - he'd be better as a deeper second striker/number 10 with a pacy striker in front of him. But that only addresses one of our many problems, and that's only if Eddie will do it.  

[Optimistic Nut]

5 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

No, i've seen what everyone else has seen - he'd be better as a deeper second striker/number 10 with a pacy striker in front of him. But that only addresses one of our many problems, and that's only if Eddie will do it.  

 

I think a big issue with it also is that the drop off between Woltemade to a replacement in the 10 position and between Wissa and Osula is huge. You can play the likes of Ramsey as a 10 but it'd be a different way of playing again. 

[Vinny Green Balls]

5 hours ago, Pilko said:

Get a cup of tea for this one if you can be arsed, this is a HTT-style length of the Magna Carta special.

 

I've tried to come up with a scoring system for every game since the cup final to make a bit more sense of things. Before going through this exercise I'd say i'm somewhere in the middle somewhere of the two main camps, the positive camp (Eddie will sort it, great history of getting back on track after a rocky period, still only a few league wins off Europe & still in all three cups) and the negative camp (games since cup final largely been a chore to watch, too much late goal leakage, poor use of summer funds, seems bereft of ideas).

 

Where I've got to is that I think it's the nature of either the performances or the manner in which the result has arrived rather than the results on their own that has quite a lot of people, to varying degrees, asking questions about where we go from here (with or without the manager depending on viewpoint). I've included scoring or conceding late as I think that has a pretty large bearing on how you feel about a result if it's been snatched away late or gained something right at the death.

 

The system I've settled on is as follows. There are many holes in this & it won't be perfect.

 

0 points for a loss

1 point for a draw

2 points for a win

 

-1 point for poor performance 

-1 point for conceding a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome 

-1 point for a loss with a 2+ goal margin 

0 points for OK/fine/meh performance - mixed bag or "did the job" type showing 

+1 point for good performance 

+1 point for scoring a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome

+1 point for a win with 2+ goal margin

 

So in theory you could have a max score per game of +5 and a minimum score of -3, meaning 1 is the mid point. The idea here is to offset unfortunate losses or draws with performance points to give a measure of how we're playing, but also give extra marks when we've really put sides to the sword. I've been fair as I can and there were 4 occasions when I really wavered between 0/+1 or 0/-1 for performance points and on all of those occasions I went with the extreme of the two. If I couldn't remember I referred to EH's remarks after the game for a steer.

 

This is obviously open to interpretation and others will have different viewpoints on the performance variable, but here goes:

 

(2024/25)

 

Brentford (h), 2-1 win: fairly close game, performance described by the manager as "not pretty" but ultimately did the job. 2 points

 

Leicester (a), 3-0 win: scored early, played well, pissed it. 4 points

 

Man U (h), 4-1 win: ran away with it second half, scored some really nice goals. 4 points

 

Palace (h), 5-0 win: took the piss first half, played very well. 4 points

 

Villa (a), 4-1 loss: hung in the game for 70 mins but ultimately crumbled badly second half. -2 points

 

Ipswich (h), 3-0 win: slightly edgy first half until scoring just before HT, ran away with it comfortably second half. 4 points

 

Brighton (a), 1-1 draw: disappointing performance but got a late penalty and ultimately salvaged a decent point on the road. 2 points

 

Chelsea (h), 2-0 win: scored early, decent first half, opposition red card, clung on somewhat second half before clinching late. 3 points

 

Arsenal (a), 1-0 loss: not a bad performance as we peppered Raya early but didn't look like scoring after going a goal down early second half. 0 points

 

Everton (h), 1-0 loss: poor performance, didn't look like scoring all day, rightly beaten. -1 point

 

(2025/26)

 

Villa (a), 0-0 draw: played well but toiled a bit against ten men late on and deserved to win, ultimately hamstrung by lack of striker. 2 points

 

Liverpool (h), 3-2 loss: played well first half, played unbelievably well second half with ten men, lost to late gut punch after scoring late leveller ourselves. 1 point

 

Leeds (a), 0-0 draw: defensively strong, created next to nothing, ultimately relied on opposition being equally goal shy. 1 point

 

Wolves (h), 1-0 win: nervy game and very much a "got the job done" performance. 2 points

 

Barcelona (h), lost 2-1: ultimately we were good, but just undone by a side with far superior quality in a few moments. 1 point

 

Bournemouth (a), drew 0-0: similar to Leeds in that we were very decent at the back but a non-event going forwards. Very useful point on the road. 1 point

 

Bradford (h), won 4-1: lower league opposition put to the sword well with a changed team. 4 points

 

Arsenal (h), lost 2-1: took the lead, did not play particularly well and conceded two late, massive kick in the balls. -2 points

 

USG (a), won 4-0: never really in doubt, sub-standard opposition but played very well and took them apart ruthlessly. 4 points

 

Forest (h), won 2-0: ran into opponents in disarray but put them away with an efficient, effective showing. 3 points

 

Brighton (a), lost 2-1: manager assessed this one as a poor first half, much better in second half and dragged ourselves back into it, but we then threw it away with a shit goal late on. -1 point

 

Benfica (h), won 3-0: very good performance, racked up loads of shots on target and corners, ran away with it. 4 points

 

Fulham (h), won 2-1: another "got the job done" mixed bag of a performance but with the distinction of a last gasp winner from Bruno. 3 points

 

Spurs (h), won 2-0: more of an even game than the score suggests but ultimately did enough and didn't look troubled after the second goal. 3 points

 

West Ham (a), lost 3-1: faced opponents on long bad run, scored early and absolutely capitulated. Unable to fashion a single proper chance having gone 2-1 down on stroke of HT. -2 points

 

Bilbao (h), won 2-0: Good response to the previous game, scored early and never looked troubled after that. 4 points

 

Man City (h), won 2-1: A very good gutsy performance and deservedly won. 3 points

 

Marseille (a), lost 2-1: scored early, played well first half, ridiculous goalkeeping error and shit the bed early second half. Rallied a bit but couldn't level the game. 0 points

 

Everton (a), 4-1 win: scored early, pressed home the advantage and never looked in danger after second goal. Good performance all round. 4 points

 

Spurs (h), 2-2 draw: mixed bag of a performance including a late leveller and conceding a late leveller. 1 point

 

Burnley (h), 2-1 win: good first half, very disappointing second half against ten men, conceded late pen and then almost threw it away at the death. 2 points

 

Leverkusen (a), 2-2 draw: mixed bag performance, ultimately did well to overcome early deficit and drag ourselves into the game but conceded late to bin two points. 0 points

 

Sunderland (a), 1-0 loss: a fucking disgrace from start to finish, nuff said already by us all. -1 point

 

So, some numbers now I've gone through that exercise. 1 is the middling score, if you like, on the scale.

 

Since the cup final average: 1.72

Back end of last season average: 2.00

This season average: 1.61

Last ten games average: 1.40

All league games average: 1.48

This season league games average: 1.13

This season cup & Europe average: 2.50

All home games average: 2.37

All away games average: 0.86 (!)

 

What I'm taking from this is:

 

"We've been shit since the cup final" is a bit of a myth. We actually did class for the next 8 games other than a single blotting of the copy book away at Villa. The final two games of the season where we were quite poor and got bad results have maybe stained this narrative somewhat. This season has definitely seen a downturn in results and performances although there are some good showings and good results littered throughout 2025 (often not in the same games either).

 

Away form since the cup final is a massive, massive problem (duh: we all know this). We're class at home (still only lost to Everton, Arsenal, Liverpool and Barca in our last 19 home games). It does help we've had 19 at home vs 14 away over this sample when that's the pattern you're in but I can't hold that against us when they're not full season samples and our domestic cup draws are 2 and 0 in favour of home ties.

 

Based on this admittedly creaky scoring system, it is getting worse if you compare overall average, end of last season average, this season average and last 10 games average. There's a clear downturn in results and performances both this season and in the most recent run of games. The margins are pretty tight in most games still, which helps towards a view that it can be fixed or we simply get a bit of luck that we need sooner rather than later.

 

There's a firm possibility that the team raises itself or expends more energy in cup games. We don't know if that's driven by the manager or not, who always plays a straight bat when asked about prioritising cup games or league games with "the next game is the most important". There's a chance you could just attribute this to Europe too as we've only played two domestic cup games in this time and one was a stroll against lower division opposition. Our post midweek cup/Europe game results are a "not as bad as I expected but still not amazing" W3, D1, L4.

 

We still aren't losing many games by more than a single goal, especially if you allow West Ham and Brentford last gasp goals as us chasing the game and leaving space. Villa was the only true "out of it before stoppage time" drubbing we've taken in 33 games. We're pretty much always in every game we play and the margins are often tight, and have swung the way against us more than they have swung for us in the more even games or games we've done well in but not won. On the other side we've administered plenty more of 2+ goal wins ourselves (12 wins against 3 losses).

 

We've only scored four late goals ourselves that altered the outcome and we ended up then conceding an even later one on two of those four occasions. Only Bruno's at home to Fulham was a late winner. There's a possibility that the team are tired and not coping well with the increase in games, from both a mental and physical standpoint. We're told we get next to no training time with the schedule, which fits with this theory. But we can't just accept that we're going to piss away late points all the time, the manager needs to find a solution for it and quickly. It'll always happen from time to time but it's beyond a joke lately.

 

So where has that left my thinking?

 

It's left me probably reassessing my view slightly more in favour of it not being as bad as it feels. Margins tight, still running over plenty of sides at home, been missing key players for a lot of this season. I think the summer has played a huge part in the bad feeling with what felt like three months of knock backs and only Thiaw firmly asserting himself as a strong addition so far, the others being ranked (so far) from somewhere inbetween "promising work in progress" to "absolutely dog shit". The late goals and away form also mean that a good proportion of our games leave you with a feeling of frustration (even if the end result is actually OK) or that they were a chore to watch overall. That and a thankfully poor, tight Premier League this year is probably pointing to the fact that things aren't as fucked as I can sometimes lead myself to believe.

 

And of course, sticking to my scale, the result on Sunday goes down as -1 point but given the depth the performance plumbed and the emotional nature of the derby it's definitely having a bigger weigh-down on feeling than my sketchy system suggests on me, and others. I'd give it -10 if I was going to let myself

 

If anyone is arsed or has read this far (well done) I'll come back to this in another handful of games (maybe next 10?) and re-assess what the numbers look like.

 

Bonus points to the first "TL;DR" reply, btw. Oh, and of course other opinions are both available and welcomed.

This is perhaps the most offensively reasonable post I’ve read on here. Well played, good sir!

[PauloGeordio]

5 hours ago, Pilko said:

Get a cup of tea for this one if you can be arsed, this is a HTT-style length of the Magna Carta special.

 

I've tried to come up with a scoring system for every game since the cup final to make a bit more sense of things. Before going through this exercise I'd say i'm somewhere in the middle somewhere of the two main camps, the positive camp (Eddie will sort it, great history of getting back on track after a rocky period, still only a few league wins off Europe & still in all three cups) and the negative camp (games since cup final largely been a chore to watch, too much late goal leakage, poor use of summer funds, seems bereft of ideas).

 

Where I've got to is that I think it's the nature of either the performances or the manner in which the result has arrived rather than the results on their own that has quite a lot of people, to varying degrees, asking questions about where we go from here (with or without the manager depending on viewpoint). I've included scoring or conceding late as I think that has a pretty large bearing on how you feel about a result if it's been snatched away late or gained something right at the death.

 

The system I've settled on is as follows. There are many holes in this & it won't be perfect.

 

0 points for a loss

1 point for a draw

2 points for a win

 

-1 point for poor performance 

-1 point for conceding a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome 

-1 point for a loss with a 2+ goal margin 

0 points for OK/fine/meh performance - mixed bag or "did the job" type showing 

+1 point for good performance 

+1 point for scoring a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome

+1 point for a win with 2+ goal margin

 

So in theory you could have a max score per game of +5 and a minimum score of -3, meaning 1 is the mid point. The idea here is to offset unfortunate losses or draws with performance points to give a measure of how we're playing, but also give extra marks when we've really put sides to the sword. I've been fair as I can and there were 4 occasions when I really wavered between 0/+1 or 0/-1 for performance points and on all of those occasions I went with the extreme of the two. If I couldn't remember I referred to EH's remarks after the game for a steer.

 

This is obviously open to interpretation and others will have different viewpoints on the performance variable, but here goes:

 

(2024/25)

 

Brentford (h), 2-1 win: fairly close game, performance described by the manager as "not pretty" but ultimately did the job. 2 points

 

Leicester (a), 3-0 win: scored early, played well, pissed it. 4 points

 

Man U (h), 4-1 win: ran away with it second half, scored some really nice goals. 4 points

 

Palace (h), 5-0 win: took the piss first half, played very well. 4 points

 

Villa (a), 4-1 loss: hung in the game for 70 mins but ultimately crumbled badly second half. -2 points

 

Ipswich (h), 3-0 win: slightly edgy first half until scoring just before HT, ran away with it comfortably second half. 4 points

 

Brighton (a), 1-1 draw: disappointing performance but got a late penalty and ultimately salvaged a decent point on the road. 2 points

 

Chelsea (h), 2-0 win: scored early, decent first half, opposition red card, clung on somewhat second half before clinching late. 3 points

 

Arsenal (a), 1-0 loss: not a bad performance as we peppered Raya early but didn't look like scoring after going a goal down early second half. 0 points

 

Everton (h), 1-0 loss: poor performance, didn't look like scoring all day, rightly beaten. -1 point

 

(2025/26)

 

Villa (a), 0-0 draw: played well but toiled a bit against ten men late on and deserved to win, ultimately hamstrung by lack of striker. 2 points

 

Liverpool (h), 3-2 loss: played well first half, played unbelievably well second half with ten men, lost to late gut punch after scoring late leveller ourselves. 1 point

 

Leeds (a), 0-0 draw: defensively strong, created next to nothing, ultimately relied on opposition being equally goal shy. 1 point

 

Wolves (h), 1-0 win: nervy game and very much a "got the job done" performance. 2 points

 

Barcelona (h), lost 2-1: ultimately we were good, but just undone by a side with far superior quality in a few moments. 1 point

 

Bournemouth (a), drew 0-0: similar to Leeds in that we were very decent at the back but a non-event going forwards. Very useful point on the road. 1 point

 

Bradford (h), won 4-1: lower league opposition put to the sword well with a changed team. 4 points

 

Arsenal (h), lost 2-1: took the lead, did not play particularly well and conceded two late, massive kick in the balls. -2 points

 

USG (a), won 4-0: never really in doubt, sub-standard opposition but played very well and took them apart ruthlessly. 4 points

 

Forest (h), won 2-0: ran into opponents in disarray but put them away with an efficient, effective showing. 3 points

 

Brighton (a), lost 2-1: manager assessed this one as a poor first half, much better in second half and dragged ourselves back into it, but we then threw it away with a shit goal late on. -1 point

 

Benfica (h), won 3-0: very good performance, racked up loads of shots on target and corners, ran away with it. 4 points

 

Fulham (h), won 2-1: another "got the job done" mixed bag of a performance but with the distinction of a last gasp winner from Bruno. 3 points

 

Spurs (h), won 2-0: more of an even game than the score suggests but ultimately did enough and didn't look troubled after the second goal. 3 points

 

West Ham (a), lost 3-1: faced opponents on long bad run, scored early and absolutely capitulated. Unable to fashion a single proper chance having gone 2-1 down on stroke of HT. -2 points

 

Bilbao (h), won 2-0: Good response to the previous game, scored early and never looked troubled after that. 4 points

 

Man City (h), won 2-1: A very good gutsy performance and deservedly won. 3 points

 

Marseille (a), lost 2-1: scored early, played well first half, ridiculous goalkeeping error and shit the bed early second half. Rallied a bit but couldn't level the game. 0 points

 

Everton (a), 4-1 win: scored early, pressed home the advantage and never looked in danger after second goal. Good performance all round. 4 points

 

Spurs (h), 2-2 draw: mixed bag of a performance including a late leveller and conceding a late leveller. 1 point

 

Burnley (h), 2-1 win: good first half, very disappointing second half against ten men, conceded late pen and then almost threw it away at the death. 2 points

 

Leverkusen (a), 2-2 draw: mixed bag performance, ultimately did well to overcome early deficit and drag ourselves into the game but conceded late to bin two points. 0 points

 

Sunderland (a), 1-0 loss: a fucking disgrace from start to finish, nuff said already by us all. -1 point

 

So, some numbers now I've gone through that exercise. 1 is the middling score, if you like, on the scale.

 

Since the cup final average: 1.72

Back end of last season average: 2.00

This season average: 1.61

Last ten games average: 1.40

All league games average: 1.48

This season league games average: 1.13

This season cup & Europe average: 2.50

All home games average: 2.37

All away games average: 0.86 (!)

 

What I'm taking from this is:

 

"We've been shit since the cup final" is a bit of a myth. We actually did class for the next 8 games other than a single blotting of the copy book away at Villa. The final two games of the season where we were quite poor and got bad results have maybe stained this narrative somewhat. This season has definitely seen a downturn in results and performances although there are some good showings and good results littered throughout 2025 (often not in the same games either).

 

Away form since the cup final is a massive, massive problem (duh: we all know this). We're class at home (still only lost to Everton, Arsenal, Liverpool and Barca in our last 19 home games). It does help we've had 19 at home vs 14 away over this sample when that's the pattern you're in but I can't hold that against us when they're not full season samples and our domestic cup draws are 2 and 0 in favour of home ties.

 

Based on this admittedly creaky scoring system, it is getting worse if you compare overall average, end of last season average, this season average and last 10 games average. There's a clear downturn in results and performances both this season and in the most recent run of games. The margins are pretty tight in most games still, which helps towards a view that it can be fixed or we simply get a bit of luck that we need sooner rather than later.

 

There's a firm possibility that the team raises itself or expends more energy in cup games. We don't know if that's driven by the manager or not, who always plays a straight bat when asked about prioritising cup games or league games with "the next game is the most important". There's a chance you could just attribute this to Europe too as we've only played two domestic cup games in this time and one was a stroll against lower division opposition. Our post midweek cup/Europe game results are a "not as bad as I expected but still not amazing" W3, D1, L4.

 

We still aren't losing many games by more than a single goal, especially if you allow West Ham and Brentford last gasp goals as us chasing the game and leaving space. Villa was the only true "out of it before stoppage time" drubbing we've taken in 33 games. We're pretty much always in every game we play and the margins are often tight, and have swung the way against us more than they have swung for us in the more even games or games we've done well in but not won. On the other side we've administered plenty more of 2+ goal wins ourselves (12 wins against 3 losses).

 

We've only scored four late goals ourselves that altered the outcome and we ended up then conceding an even later one on two of those four occasions. Only Bruno's at home to Fulham was a late winner. There's a possibility that the team are tired and not coping well with the increase in games, from both a mental and physical standpoint. We're told we get next to no training time with the schedule, which fits with this theory. But we can't just accept that we're going to piss away late points all the time, the manager needs to find a solution for it and quickly. It'll always happen from time to time but it's beyond a joke lately.

 

So where has that left my thinking?

 

It's left me probably reassessing my view slightly more in favour of it not being as bad as it feels. Margins tight, still running over plenty of sides at home, been missing key players for a lot of this season. I think the summer has played a huge part in the bad feeling with what felt like three months of knock backs and only Thiaw firmly asserting himself as a strong addition so far, the others being ranked (so far) from somewhere inbetween "promising work in progress" to "absolutely dog shit". The late goals and away form also mean that a good proportion of our games leave you with a feeling of frustration (even if the end result is actually OK) or that they were a chore to watch overall. That and a thankfully poor, tight Premier League this year is probably pointing to the fact that things aren't as fucked as I can sometimes lead myself to believe.

 

And of course, sticking to my scale, the result on Sunday goes down as -1 point but given the depth the performance plumbed and the emotional nature of the derby it's definitely having a bigger weigh-down on feeling than my sketchy system suggests on me, and others. I'd give it -10 if I was going to let myself

 

If anyone is arsed or has read this far (well done) I'll come back to this in another handful of games (maybe next 10?) and re-assess what the numbers look like.

 

Bonus points to the first "TL;DR" reply, btw. Oh, and of course other opinions are both available and welcomed.

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻 Brilliant Pilko. Thanks for the effort put in. 

[TK-421]

Apologies if its already been posted, but this was a decent watch, following sundays match.
 

 

 

[Holmesy]

8 hours ago, elbee909 said:

One loss to Sunderland and a bunch of votes yes. What a bunch of wazzocks.

There have been plenty questioning him since the start of the season and beyond. Inevitable that you're going to get some kneejerkers after a defeat and performance like that, but there are legitimate questions that should be asked. Blind loyalty is arguably more questionable than reasonable concerns, particularly when the decline in our potency, performances, results and more worryingly, ability to attract top talent is so apparent.