Jump to content

The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


midds

The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)  

406 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to get relegated this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

When there was ten games to go I checked and only two teams had done a "great escape". That was Leicester and Wigan. Neither caught a team that was on 30+ points at the same stage either.

Not that I think Burnley will escape….but there’s always a first time…..Remember not that long ago the following statistic was floating around the media “ No team has failed to win their first 13 games and survived relegation”….just saying.

Link to post
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Jinky Jim said:

Not that I think Burnley will escape….but there’s always a first time…..Remember not that long ago the following statistic was floating around the media “ No team has failed to win their first 13 games and survived relegation”….just saying.

 

Very true, but we had a new manager and a transfer window to go. Burnley need to change season long momentum at the drop of a hat. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:


I don’t think they will. Just saying there’s instances where a club has come from nowhere to win something daft like 5 in 8 and stayed up. 


I hope they do, as if they did I honestly think Everton would go. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Very true, but we had a new manager and a transfer window to go. Burnley need to change season long momentum at the drop of a hat. 

And new owners that basically was our escape route.

Link to post
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Jinky Jim said:

Not that I think Burnley will escape….but there’s always a first time…..Remember not that long ago the following statistic was floating around the media “ No team has failed to win their first 13 games and survived relegation”….just saying.

It wouldn't even be the first time. They are 4 points from safety with 8 games left, Id guess a few have done that. As far as we are concerned we are 10 points from relegation with 8 games (chasing team) remaining. I wonder how many have gone down from that situation ?

 

 

Edited by madras

Link to post
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Very true, but we had a new manager and a transfer window to go. Burnley need to change season long momentum at the drop of a hat. 

Good point. However most seasons do see strange finishes to the season…..doubt Burnley have it in them to alter their destiny though.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just now, Jinky Jim said:

Good point. However most seasons do see strange finishes to the season…..doubt Burnley have it in them to alter their destiny though.

 

A team dramatically altering their PPG in the last 10 games is a rarity. It does happen, but it's very few and far between. Normally it requires a team in the bottom three to maintain/slightly increase their PPG and a side above them to have a catastrophic finish. If Burnley even slightly increase their PPG to one, the only team they can catch is Everton.

Link to post
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, ponsaelius said:

 

Exactly.

I said outside chance. It's still unlikely. But their run in is poor enough that it's possible.

 

For what it's worth, at this stage (30 games):

 

Fulham on 23 points overhauled Reading on 28 points.

 

Wigan on 25 points overhauled Blackburn on 28 points.

 

Sunderland on 25 points overhauled Norwich on 28 points.

 

Leicester on 22 overhauled Hull on 28.

 

In those four scenarios, either those four teams escapes had already started (Leicester, Wigan) or they weren't that remarkable (Fulham, Sunderland).

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah but all those teams who they overhauled also obviously got points too. I am hypothesizing a final total that they could theoretically reach - and underlining that we may still need another 2-3 points to be safe. Which we should obviously achieve.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Been a great weekend for Everton but I think Burnley can still catch them. Leicester, Liverpool, Chelsea, Leicester next 4 games for Everton. Easily could be 1-2 points there.  If Burnley can win 2 out of next 4, it's very much on.

 

 

Edited by samptime29

Link to post
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Jesse Pinkman said:

Why are people saying Burnley are relegated now? They have ridiculously easy fixtures. They won’t catch us but I can still definitely see them catching Everton considering Everton has some hard fixtures. 

They just lost comfortably to the worst team in the league. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought after the Everton-Man U game that it would be it for Burnley if they didn’t beat Norwich. From the massive high of beating Everton and going within touching distance, to seeing us, Leeds and in particular Everton beating Man Utd must have been killers mentally for them seeing how much work they have to do to get back within it.

 

They’ll have been thinking before the Everton game that they could be out of the bottom 3 today, instead they’re still 4 adrift and now have 2 games fewer to close the gap having played two of the worst 4 teams in the league.

 

 

Edited by Optimistic Nut

Link to post
Share on other sites

Burnley aren’t getting three wins and a draw more than us in 8 games.

 

Aston Villa are Burnley’s wild card they haven’t played them yet and Villa have nothing to play for. Everton and Leeds are still in their reach.

Link to post
Share on other sites

We’re playing Sunday (Leicester), Wednesday (Palace), Saturday (Norwich) next week. That’ll be tough on the old legs/ injury front. 
 

If we can pull out a win or two then I’d say that’s 100% us safe. Big week. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

They are all winnable games but winning them all would be tough and mightily impressive. 2 wins or even a win and 2 draws would be fine and that would mean we can go into the tougher games against City and Liverpoll with nothing to fear.

Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s a little step up from when we had Brentford, Brighton & Southampton in a short period but down from Chelsea, Everton & Spurs. Nice little test to see where we slot in as we are.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Norwich are absolutely pony and we really should be beating them. Palace are Leicester carry plenty of attacking threat, but both struggle to win games on the road (three each I think it is).

 

Winning all three is a big ask, but going unbeaten is a possibility (with a win or two in there).

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...