The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[Thumbheed]

11 minutes ago, Fantail Breeze said:

 

Pukki ahead of Wilson?  Now I know you’re talking crap.

 

Aarons has been awful for them this season. He’s no better than Lewis. As I said, none of their players would improve us, other than Cantwell.

 

Fulham, West Brom, Huddersfield, Sheff United, Swansea, Cardiff, Hull, Middlesbrough have all come up within the last five years and gone straight back down, or down within two seasons. Most of those have yo-yo’d between the two.

 

Add in Watford, Norwich and to some degree, Brighton and there are three more examples of teams going up and straight back down.

 

Top quality these days though, those Championship promoted teams.

 

 

 

 

Who said ahead of?! 

 

So hang on, you can name some teams who prove my point 'wrong' but ignore the absolute and unequivocal number of teams which prove your nonsensical point wrong. 

 

I'll make this point again, you've named about 2 teams who've escaped from our position (in about 20 years) and I can name about 8-10 who have stayed up an even established themselves in the league in the last 10. I dont actually know what's hard to grasp here.

 

Honestly fanny you're a relentlessly crap poster

 

Edit: anyway, cba anymore, don't think there's anything more to say. Pl's much much stronger now than it ever has been. 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Thumbheed

[Dr.Spaceman]

5.

 

One minute I'm confident, the next I'm really not. That Brentford game gave us a glimpse of something we haven't seen in two seasons from 3 or 4 of our first team. If we continue to improve over the next few games we will pick up one or two decent wins, but we need somewhere near 26/27 points between now and the end of the season.

 

We've got a maximum of 42 points we could realistically pick up from now on, imo.

 

Winnable home games against;

• Norwich City
• Burnley
• Watford
• Everton
• Aston Villa
• Brighton
• Crystal Palace
• Wolves

Winnable away games against;

• Brentford
• Norwich City
• Burnley

And 9 other games I reckon we could get draws out of;

• Arsenal(a)
• Leicester City(a)
• Manchester United(h)
• Everton(a)
• Southampton(a)
• Leeds United(a)
• West Ham(a)
• Leicester City(h)
• Arsenal(h)

We need to win 8 of those games above, minimum, or we're gonna need something from the elite. Obviously we could pray that there are 3 other clubs who enter absolute freefall (not looking likely), leaving us only needing somewhere near another 25 points to stay up.

 

We're going to have to turn it around very quickly, however you look at it, although I'd be amazed if the side we put out yesterday only went on to win 5 or 6 games this season. Good thing is we've only lost one more game than the likes of 6th placed Wolves, so should expect to pick up some decent draws along the way. Other thing to look at is how long it'll take sides to figure out our style of play, you'd expect clubs to be looking at our December fixtures to see how the likes of Liverpool and Man City dismantle us. Hopefully by then we have at least another 7 points added to our total...

[Dokko]

Whatever happens next, lets make this the last Relegation Thread. Ever

[Dr.Spaceman]

I've just talked myself into a 3 or a 4 

 

Edit: Had the scale back to front.... stick me down for 7!

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Dr.Spaceman

[Fantail Breeze]

8 minutes ago, Thumbheed said:

 

Who said ahead of?! 

 

So hang on, you can name some teams who prove my point 'wrong' but ignore the absolute and unequivocal number of teams which prove your nonsensical point wrong. 

 

I'll make this point again, you've named about 2 teams who've escaped from our position and I can name about 8-10 who have stayed up an even established themselves in the league in the exact same period. I dont actually know what's hard to grasp here.

 

Honestly fanny you're a relentlessly crap poster

 

Well how would Pukki be good enough for our team, if he won’t be playing ahead of Wilson? Norwich’s main striker sitting on our bench.

 

Okay, let’s make this simple for you because you’re clearly a bit simple yourself:

 

2017/18 Promoted:

Wolves, Cardiff, Fulham

 

Two relegated next season.

 

2018/19 Promoted:

Norwich, Sheff Utd, Aston Villa

 

One relegated next season.

One relegated season after.

 

2019/20 Promoted:

Leeds, West Brom, Fulham

 

Two relegated next season.

 

Out of nine teams coming up, only three of them have survived more than two seasons, with Leeds questionable about staying up the second season and may make that two.

 

Where are these 10 established teams?

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Fantail Breeze

[Karjala]

8.

 

0 wins from 12, speaks for itself. No team has even survived after not winning any of their first 12 (*edit Derby did in 00-01, won 8 of their last 13 home games) Worst defence in the league too.

 

Only hope will be if we can beat both Burnley and Norwich at home and hope the other teams around us pick up next to nothing before the new year. Everyone thought we'd beat Brentford, who were winless in 4, and we didn't.

 

The teams in safe spots so far are averaging a point a game, so nothing to suggest that will change.  If that continues, we need another 32 points from our last 26 games - better start picking some up quickly.

 

Bruce and Ashley really have left us in the shit.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Karjala

[HaydnNUFC]

11 minutes ago, Dr.Spaceman said:

5.

 

One minute I'm confident, the next I'm really not. That Brentford game gave us a glimpse of something we haven't seen in two seasons from 3 or 4 of our first team. If we continue to improve over the next few games we will pick up one or two decent wins, but we need somewhere near 26/27 points between now and the end of the season.

 

We've got a maximum of 42 points we could realistically pick up from now on, imo.

 

Winnable home games against;

• Norwich City
• Burnley
• Watford
• Everton
• Aston Villa
• Brighton
• Crystal Palace
• Wolves

Winnable away games against;

• Brentford
• Norwich City
• Burnley

And 9 other games I reckon we could get draws out of;

• Arsenal(a)
• Leicester City(a)
• Manchester United(h)
• Everton(a)
• Southampton(a)
• Leeds United(a)
• West Ham(a)
• Leicester City(h)
• Arsenal(h)

We need to win 8 of those games above, minimum, or we're gonna need something from the elite. Obviously we could pray that there are 3 other clubs who enter absolute freefall (not looking likely), leaving us only needing somewhere near another 25 points to stay up.

 

We're going to have to turn it around very quickly, however you look at it, although I'd be amazed if the side we put out yesterday only went on to win 5 or 6 games this season. Good thing is we've only lost one more game than the likes of 6th placed Wolves, so should expect to pick up some decent draws along the way. Other thing to look at is how long it'll take sides to figure out our style of play, you'd expect clubs to be looking at our December fixtures to see how the likes of Liverpool and Man City dismantle us. Hopefully by then we have at least another 7 points added to our total...

 

Leicester seem to be a shadow of the team from the past 2 seasons, when we go there in 3 weeks we can beat them imo, assuming we continue to improve. Southampton only just managed to draw against us under Bruce when they were by lightyears the better side, they're beatable. Leeds too. And Everton I don't fear at all also.

 

Talking ourselves into a <5 sake

[HaydnNUFC]

4 minutes ago, Karjala said:

No team has even survived after not winning any of their first 12. Worst defence in the league too.

 

This isn't true. Everton did it in 1994-95 albeit in a 42 game season, and Derby did it in 2000-01 in a 38 game season, going the first 13 without a win. Finished on 42 points.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by HaydnNUFC

[TRon]

It's going to be an uphill task like. A lot of our more winnable games were early in the season when Bruce was frittering away points. It's going to take a turnaround on the scale of Keegan in 2008 after he took over from Allardyce. Not just a change of manager but a whole football philosophy. I still think we will stay up, but it's going to be tough. Not sure there are 3 nailed on teams to go down this year, all of them are showing something other than Norwich. 

[Karjala]

3 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

 

This isn't true. Everton did it in 1994-95 albeit in a 42 game season, and Derby did it in 2000-01 in a 38 game season, going the first 13 without a win. Finished on 42 points.

 

 

 

I stand corrected on that. Some run that was from Derby - won 8 of their last 13 home games.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Karjala

[Thumbheed]

16 minutes ago, Fantail Breeze said:

 

Well how would Pukki be good enough for our team, if he won’t be playing ahead of Wilson? Norwich’s main striker sitting on our bench.

 

Okay, let’s make this simple for you because you’re clearly a bit simple yourself:

 

2017/18 Promoted:

Wolves, Cardiff, Fulham

 

Two relegated next season.

 

2018/19 Promoted:

Norwich, Sheff Utd, Aston Villa

 

One relegated next season.

One relegated season after.

 

2019/20 Promoted:

Leeds, West Brom, Fulham

 

Two relegated next season.

 

Out of nine teams coming up, only three of them have survived more than two seasons, with Leeds questionable about staying up the second season and may make that two.

 

Where are these 10 established teams?

 

 

 

 

Says this:

Your point is proven to be wrong by the fact more often than not recently, the three who come up go down

 

Gives me stats proving his own shit point wrong 

 

Honestly that's enough from me, I don't want to derail this but for your own benefit, do teams with 6 points after 12 games. I'll let you have a full 20 years rather than just the last 3 though 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Thumbheed

[Fantail Breeze]

I think a five or six is about right. Right now it’s probably more likely than unlikely, but I expect that will change after Howe has more time and we spend in January.

 

Our season isn’t defined by beating both Norwich and Burnley though. Six points is ideal but four wouldn’t be a total disaster. They are more must not lose than must win.

 

I don’t fear anyone in this league under Howe. I did under Bruce but I now know we’ll play to win. Even the top top teams have already proven are beatable or able to get a point from:

 

Palace and Southampton at Man City.

Liverpool at West ham/at home to Brighton.

Burnley at Chelsea.

[Fantail Breeze]

1 minute ago, Thumbheed said:

 

Says this:

Your point is proven to be wrong by the fact more often than not recently, the three who come up go down

 

Gives me stats proving his own shit point wrong 

 

Honestly that's enough from me, but for your own benefit now do teams with 6 points after 12 games. I'll let you have a full 20 years rather than just the last 3

 

Sorry, what?  Nine teams up, six of them (maybe soon to be seven) go down. But that is somehow proof that more teams stay up?   

 

You’re also unable to show me these 8-10 established teams from the previous five years.

 

Think you need to go to bed.

[Carlito]

I think we'll be fine, especially if we can bring some players in during January.

We should have won quite comfortably yesterday if not for Darlow's mistakes and I fancy our chances at home to Norwich and Burnley. On paper it doesn't look great for us but just look at the results around us yesterday. After a couple more weeks of instilling discipline back into the defense I feel confident we'll start picking up a couple of unexpected wins before January.

[Thumbheed]

30 minutes ago, Fantail Breeze said:

 

Sorry, what?  Nine teams up, six of them (maybe soon to be seven) go down. But that is somehow proof that more teams stay up?   

 

You’re also unable to show me these 8-10 established teams from the previous five years.

 

Think you need to go to bed.

OK, I'll bite. 

 

If I'm only bothered about promoted teams in context to how it impacts us at this present moment in time, then why do I care about what they do next season?!  Nowt like a bit of stat padding, Fanny. 

 

So that's make 5 teams out of 9 who stay up in their 1st season up. 

 

Edit: but for the sake of argument, let's ignore all those facts and agree you're right and I'm wrong

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Thumbheed

[The Prophet]

4.5 for me. We're bang in the shit, no doubt about it, but we've got plenty of games and a transfer window to repair the damage.

 

As shit as the fixture list looks running up to Xmas. A confident, well drilled side won't fear the likes of Leicester and Everton (should we get to that point). I'm far more confident we'll get something attacking sides such as Arsenal, Everton and Leicester, rather than sitting back and hoping for a point.

[Adam]

[Fantail Breeze]

16 minutes ago, Thumbheed said:

OK, I'll bite. 

 

If I'm only bothered about promoted teams in context to how it impacts us at this present moment in time, then why do I care about what they do next season?!  Nowt like a bit of stat padding, Fanny. 

 

So that's make 5 teams out of 9 who stay up in their 1st season up. 

 

Thank you and good night. 

 

Because you said promoted teams are better now than they were over five years ago. But actually, more teams get relegated quicker now than they did back then.

 

And you’re wrong, again. Out of nine teams, five were relegated in their first season. You’ve got it the wrong way round.

 

Plus only three (potentially two) stay up if you look over two seasons. So teams like Leeds will be vulnerable this season, and low and behold they’re fighting relegation. Which directly impacts on us this season.

 

Where are the 8-10 established PL teams you mentioned? You can’t talk shit and then ignore it  

 

Bless. You were really sure in yourself as well.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Fantail Breeze

[Yorkie]

When looking at fixture lists there's always a temptation to assume that games against the top 4 or 5 sides are insta-defeats, but I feel like it never works out that way unless you're truly irreparably shite. Just last season West Brom won 5-2 at Chelsea; Sheffield United won at ManU; Fulham won at both Liverpool and Leicester. Season before that, Norwich beat Man City; Watford beat ManU and Liverpool; and Bournemouth beat ManU and Chelsea. Even we took 13 points off the 'big six' last time we went down. 

 

We'll pick up our results against that lot this time too, I'm sure of it. The ones against Burnley, Norwich etc are still the biggest opportunities obviously. But the point I'm making is that the pool of points available definitely is 78 points, rather than less than that, purely on account of us being 15+ positions in the table behind some opponents. 

[Away Toon]

If we don't improve defensively we will go down and it won't even be close. Howe doesn't have a history of improving sides defensively so he's probably not the right manager at this moment in time. I hope he proves me wrong, we were certainly exciting and entertaining yesterday, with improvements all over the field. Except where it matters, defense and goalkeeper. Not sure what he can do about that especially as he's locked up in a Hotel room until further notice. We will have to be very quick and smart  in the window, new goalkeeper, new fullbacks at least one CB, couple of central midfielders who can run and create and cover for Wilson. Do this and we are a 5, don't do it properly an 8.

[Wolfcastle]

7

10 if we don't beat Norwich

[Lazarus]

Theres no way were going down.

 

The current squad with zero additions in January should be enough to climb to safety.

 

Its November, Howe has another 7 months to work with the players, to grow their confidence, to improve their passing, to improve their fitness, to work on tactics, the owners have 7 months to start improving stuff behind the scenes which will give everyone a boost, us as fans have 7 months to cheer and encourage the team etc etc....

 

And all that is with the existing players.

 

We also have the January transfer window where anyone deemed deadwood can be shipped out and new talent can be brought in.

 

Defensive talent.

 

Attacking talent.

 

Expensive talent.

 

Maybe even world class talent.

 

Howe then has upto 5 months to work with these players.

 

Theres no way we are going down.

 

 

[Dan Gleebals]

Under Bruce it was a firm 10.

 

Under Howe, more of a 50:50 chance, better if Jan is kind to us in terms of transfers.

 

5 or a 6  

[Gazzaschicken]

We just need to drop darlow and Clark we had them in the championship last time we got relegated and now they are starting every week in a relegation battle. 

 

Howe just needs to work out his best defence and I think we will be OK, going forwards I believe we are OK after that performance on Saturday and this is one thing that will put our heads above everyone else come end of the season. We have a wilson, we have asm, we have some quality. We will pick up momentum this takeover will prevent our heads from going down and other clubs will tank later in the season. 

 

5 for me I'm in the fence

[GWN]

Hate to say it I'm at a big fat 10, yes we can get out of it but it will take a miracle simple as that we need so many things to go our way and a reminder of how it just doesn't happen was this weekend .

The JL miss, the disgustingly jammy 3rd Brentford goal , the other teams winning .

 

Cursed us man.  Never mind , it can only get better