The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[The Prophet]

3 hours ago, loki679 said:

 

Not sure about that.  I don't think we'll go down but you could see there was a big shift in the game when he went off.  We need leaders on the field along with quality, when he went off we suddenly had less of both and that's when Villa started pushing.  If not for a lucky VAR decision we'd have had one point, not three.

 

Potentially for 5-10 minutes (after making two changes to the back line), but they quickly regrouped after the stoppage. 

[The College Dropout]

6 hours ago, Thiago said:

Why are Norwich so high? Most games played?

That and a lack of goals.

 

 

[Manxst]

1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

That and a lack of goals.

 

 

Apart from conceding them. They’ve scored the least AND let in the most.

[Superior Acuña]

Trippier's injury is undoubtedly a blow. But we'v just won three in a row basically without our exciting new central midfielder. We've also not had Targett and Burn both in. So hoping the loss of Trippier will be indirectly countered by improvements elsewhere and mean we can keep an above-relegation form (not keep winning every game like).

 

17 hours ago, GideonShandy said:

 

FiveThirtyEight has it:

 

Norwich             87

Watford              80

Burnley              50

Newcastle         38

Leeds                 15

Everton              13

Brentford           10

 

I like your figures better

 

 

Also why are Brentford less likely than Leeds and Everton who are only 1 and 2 points behind, but with 2 and 3 games in hand. Also seems sus that we're almost 4 x Brentford when only 3 points behind them with 2 games in hand. Suspicious of their approach.

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Inferior Acuña

[GWN]

6 minutes ago, Inferior Acuña said:

Trippier's injury is undoubtedly a blow. But we'v just won three in a row basically without our exciting new central midfielder. We've also not had Targett and Burn both in. So hoping the loss of Trippier will be indirectly countered by improvements elsewhere and mean we can keep an above-relegation form (not keep winning every game like).

 

 

Also why are Brentford less likely than Leeds and Everton who are only 1 and 2 points behind, but with 2 and 3 games in hand. Also seems sus that we're almost 4 x Brentford when only 3 points behind them with 2 games in hand. Suspicious of their approach.

 

 

 

 

also without Wilson 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Get a win on Saturday and with the other games we could be above Everton, Leeds and Brentford.

 

don’t see four in a row happening but we are in form. I doubt any team has gone down after winning four in a row before 

[kingxlnc]

17 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

Get a win on Saturday and with the other games we could be above Everton, Leeds and Brentford.

 

don’t see four in a row happening but we are in form. I doubt any team has gone down after winning four in a row before 

Well Sunderland won six in a row and still went down - so theory disproved

 

:P 

[huss9]

another 3 wins and few draws enough for this season?

[HaydnNUFC]

9 minutes ago, huss9 said:

another 3 wins and few draws enough for this season?

 

Probably, but I think we'll win more than 3 games from now to the end of the season. Teams will not want to come to SJP now and we're yet to see how effective or sound we are away from home post-January.

[et tu brute]

1 minute ago, huss9 said:

another 3 wins and few draws enough for this season?

 

Aye, I reckon 33 would be enough this year (in fact I think the other 3 teams will struggle to get 30 points). I was expecting to be at least 6 points behind 4th bottom come January and with not much hope of staying up, so it's a massive bonus we are now 4 points clear. Really we shouldn't be getting relegated now from this position.

[huss9]

the whole team just seems full of confidence.

and in the stands it doesnt feel as if its all over if we concede first anymore.

and SJP is turning into a fortress again hopefully.

[ohmelads]

On 16/02/2022 at 08:47, et tu brute said:

 

Aye, I reckon 33 would be enough this year (in fact I think the other 3 teams will struggle to get 30 points). I was expecting to be at least 6 points behind 4th bottom come January and with not much hope of staying up, so it's a massive bonus we are now 4 points clear. Really we shouldn't be getting relegated now from this position.

It's a strange table this year mind with all the bottom 3 still well in with a chance of staying up, so it only takes 1 of them to put a couple wins together as we just have or as Norwich did.

 

Normally you'd be keeping an eye on the team in 17th then there's quite a dropoff. It just takes 1 of the 3 teams to get their act together. 

 

The last 5 games we have Norwich and Burnley both away either side of Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal. Vital we're clear before that final run in.

[et tu brute]

7 minutes ago, ohmelads said:

It's a strange table this year mind with all the bottom 3 still well in with a chance of staying up, so it only takes 1 of them to put a couple wins together as we just have or as Norwich did.

 

Normally you'd be keeping an eye on the team in 17th then there's quite a dropoff. It just takes 1 of the 3 teams to get their act together. 

 

The last 5 games we have Norwich and Burnley both away either side of Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal. Vital we're clear before that final run in.

I just don’t see any of the other three teams getting enough points. Not saying we’re brilliant by any means, but they all look very poor. We are also now in a position where we can look to overtake other teams, which was only a long shot three weeks ago. 

[STM]

If this was day 1 of an 18 game season, in a 4 team mini league and you gave NUFC a 4 point advantage, you would be fucking distraught if we didn't win the league, given the standard of opposition.

 

We are 12th on form since Howe took over and 4th? in the last 5 games. Even without Trippier, I would expect us to improve as a whole.

 

The only issue is how these players react to a defeat. If we tackle that obstacle, we will be fine.

 

Liverpool and City aside, we can pick up points anywhere.

[sushimonster85]

2 minutes ago, STM said:

If this was day 1 of an 18 game season, in a 4 team mini league and you gave NUFC a 4 point advantage, you would be fucking distraught if we didn't win the league, given the standard of opposition.

 

We are 12th on form since Howe took over and 4th? in the last 5 games. Even without Trippier, I would expect us to improve as a whole.

 

The only issue is how these players react to a defeat. If we tackle that obstacle, we will be fine.

 

Liverpool and City aside, we can pick up points anywhere.

 

This has been the way I have looked at it since the start of Jan when things still weren't look too great. Given the resources we were about to (and have since spent) throw at it, and how tight it all was among the bottom 4 you would have to make us favourites to win a 4 team mini-league. Obviously things have started out even better than I expected. Even if our form dips a little now, we have given ourselves enough space to be able to just perform for the rest of the season like a bottom half side and still likely be fine. Only danger is if the bottom absolutely falls out. 

[Emotic]

50 minutes ago, STM said:

If this was day 1 of an 18 game season, in a 4 team mini league and you gave NUFC a 4 point advantage, you would be fucking distraught if we didn't win the league, given the standard of opposition.

 

We are 12th on form since Howe took over and 4th? in the last 5 games. Even without Trippier, I would expect us to improve as a whole.

 

The only issue is how these players react to a defeat. If we tackle that obstacle, we will be fine.

 

Liverpool and City aside, we can pick up points anywhere.

Do we have 18 games left to play? I've lost count and thought we had 16 left.

[STM]

2 minutes ago, Emotic said:

Do we have 18 games left to play? I've lost count and thought we had 16 left.

Can't remember myself, I only used that as an example.

[maze]

46 minutes ago, STM said:

Can't remember myself, I only used that as an example.

We have 15 games left now. 

[GWN]

Bottom 4 potentially all not picking up any points this weekend on paper 

 

Think at best point for us and maybe Watford , Liverpool will win and I’d fancy Brighton to hump Burnley 

 

A point could be great for us , our goal difference compared to the others is better , worth a point .

 

Win and we’d be 3 points behind Leicester, wow.

[Superior Acuña]

Brighton and Burnley both draw a lot, I think there's a decent chance Burnley get a point there, but not much suggesting they'd get more than that. Feel like there's an element of unpredictability with Watford, wondering if it clicks for Hodgson, but have to fancy Villa to win that - more worried about Watford midweek home v Palace who are in appalling form. 

 

 

Edited February 18, 2022 by Inferior Acuña

[Karjala]

I'd take a point at West Ham right now.

[1964]

4 hours ago, GWN said:

Bottom 4 potentially all not picking up any points this weekend on paper 

 

Think at best point for us and maybe Watford , Liverpool will win and I’d fancy Brighton to hump Burnley 

 

A point could be great for us , our goal difference compared to the others is better , worth a point .

 

Win and we’d be 3 points behind Leicester, wow.

Dunk is suspended and we've nicked Burn, so their centre half area is weaker

[Guest HTT II]

I can see Burnley beating Brighton like…

[GWN]

11 minutes ago, 1964 said:

Dunk is suspended and we've nicked Burn, so their centre half area is weaker

 

Granted , just my opinion , Brighton will win by 3 or 4 

[The Prophet]

Burnley are an absolute nightmare to breakdown, they rarely lose by more than the odd goal. 

 

I hope GWN is right though.

 

 

Edited February 18, 2022 by The Prophet