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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


midds

The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)  

403 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to get relegated this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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Brentford have done what so many clubs have done, a recently promoted team who haven't done the top flight in a very long time (if at all) and start the season on fire. No fear, no doubt, free hit at teams. Shit's getting serious now and the cracks start to show and the form tail off.

 

Next week is huge for us and them. Biggest game of the season for both of us and season defining. Like someone said earlier, if we go ahead of them the media will smell blood and focus on the start of the end, applying more pressure to them and unfortunately for them they've never experienced premier league pressure, and have wilted previously when gunning for promotion. 

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FFS. It was 2-0 Man Utd, by the time I was writing this and was looking like a sure Leeds defeat, but not so much now, but it's great just looking at the league table exactly a month ago on Jan 20th and seeing how much ground we've gained on the pack above:

 

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/premier-league/20-january-2022/

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/table

 

Palace - we were 12 behind with a game in hand, now 4 with a game in hand

Brentford - were 11 with 2 games in hand, now 2 with 2 games in hand

Leeds - it was looking like 10 behind and now 1, but that could be 2 or 4 points in the next 30 mins.

Everton - were 7 behind having played a game more, now level having played a game more

 

It was definitely looking like 3 from 4 just before the Leeds game, but definitely not the case now, and it's brilliant that so many others have been brought back into the mix after our great run.

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4

 

We have enough organisation and resilience with the right characters for a scrap. Crucially St James park is a tough, tough place to go to now. My only worry is scoring enough goals but if ASM isn’t out too long and if Willock starts scoring a few. Plus I think Wood will eventually get going goals wise. The saving grave would be Wilson coming back earlier than expected though that’s clutching at straws 

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Updated Howe era table (cc Howe thread). Def feel like Palace's bad form is falling under the radar a bit - 11 points from last 14 games. Eddie Howe's Newcastle do not look like a team bound for relegation - not just based on the great last month, but taking the period as a whole as below.

(played/points)

 

8 West Ham United 15 19

9 Southampton 14 18

10 Aston Villa 13 17

11 Newcastle United 13 17

12 Brighton and Hove Albion 14 16

13 Leicester City 12 12

14 Leeds United 12 12

15 Brentford 15 12

16 Norwich City 14 12

17 Crystal Palace 14 11

18 Burnley 11 9

19 Watford 13 8

20 Everton 12 7

 

We've only lost once at home under Howe (Man City). Lost four in total - ManC home, Liverpoo awayl, Arsenal away, Leicester away.

 

 

Edited by Inferior Acuña

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things are starting to pan out nicely for us!

 

  • Title race is back on which means Man C and Liverpool have to go into every game to win
  • Europe places are wide open so Man U, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea have to go into every game to win
  • Relegation positions have now turned from a 4 horse race to a 7-8 horse race.

NUFC are the form team in the relegation battle and some teams that thought they would be no where near it, suddenly find that they are in it, and I wonder if they are equipped to deal with it?

 

Its going to be an exciting run in whatever happens.    Lets enjoy the ride!

 

 

Edited by Awaymag

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Having looked at other teams fixtures, Everton and Leeds have a pretty tough part of the season from here in. Burnley, Norwich and Watfoird all have a good few winnables in their fixtures...

our next two or three games are winnable on paper and would do us great to get that cushion and to push a couple of the teams above us into the pressure zone.

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Even removing our recent wins, our form from when Howe took over to Watford we took 7 points from 9 games. It's not great, and it looked awful at the time, but continuing on with even that form would give us 11 points from 14 games, finishing on 33 points. Possibly enough.

 

You would imagine we'll better that though.

 

 

Edited by Hanshithispantz

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33 minutes ago, Hanshithispantz said:

Even removing our recent wins, our form from when Howe took over to Watford we took 7 points from 9 games. It's not great, and it looked awful at the time, but continuing on with even that form would give us 11 points from 14 games, finishing on 33 points. Possibly enough.

 

You would imagine we'll better that though.

 

 

 

 

On paper we have 3 games which we can probably write off (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool - may give Liverpool a game up here with Wilson and Trippier possibly back), I think possibly with all the other games. there is a chance of gaining points. even though we also have tough games against Tottenham, Arsenal, Wolves, Southampton and Leicester. 

 

Hopefully the Tottenham from Saturday will turn up on Wednesday. Bit concerned that Palace are playing Watford and Burnley this week as they are right off form at the moment. You would fancy Southampton to beat Norwich, but like Brighton on Saturday they can be a bit hit and miss. It's in our hands though, if we keep putting points on the total, we should be ok.

 

 

Edited by et tu brute

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43 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

Big night tonight.

 

Leeds & Burnley losing is important. Watford winning would be a pain but it drags Palace well within reach. They’d only be 4 clear, we’d have 2 games in hand, plus they need to come here.

 

 

 


I can see Burnley turning Spurs over in typical Spurs fashion post City. I can also see Palace beating Watford but that fixture is huge for Watford given their tough games coming up. Palace need to start finding some form quick though.

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Defeats for all 3 please. A Watford win would put them a point behind us which kinda takes the shine off our recent form to once again be so close to the bottom 3. They're away to Man Utd on Saturday so a 3 defeats for that lot tonight and for Norwich on Friday and we could be 7 clear with a win on Saturday which is probably enough room to fully ease any relegation worries. 

 

I've absolutely no faith in Palace whatsoever tonight though, looks a Watford win all day that. 

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Burnley and Leeds losing is obviously the ideal scenario but not too bothered about Watford result, Palace would be within touching distance if they lose and if we win against Brentford then mid table suddenly starts to look very achievable - we have got a definite edge on the other teams hovering above relegation zone in terms of confidence/momentum and provided there are no more injuries to key players then we really should be looking up the table instead of down.

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