Still not worthy of a thread

[Guest chopey]

If this happened then clubs like Juventus should not be allowed to play B teams in the national leagues. If they want to form a European Super League let them and maybe we can return to competitive leagues again.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/25/promotion-relegation-champions-league-plans-agnelli-european-clubs

 

Not quite related to this but I quite like the idea floating about for a 5 team relegation from the Premier League.

[Gallowgate End]

If this happened then clubs like Juventus should not be allowed to play B teams in the national leagues. If they want to form a European Super League let them and maybe we can return to competitive leagues again.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/25/promotion-relegation-champions-league-plans-agnelli-european-clubs

 

Not quite related to this but I quite like the idea floating about for a 5 team relegation from the Premier League.

 

[Wullie]

If this happened then clubs like Juventus should not be allowed to play B teams in the national leagues. If they want to form a European Super League let them and maybe we can return to competitive leagues again.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/25/promotion-relegation-champions-league-plans-agnelli-european-clubs

 

Doubt that'll bother them much, they've only been doing so for the last 8 months.

[Tribesman]

If this happened then clubs like Juventus should not be allowed to play B teams in the national leagues. If they want to form a European Super League let them and maybe we can return to competitive leagues again.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/25/promotion-relegation-champions-league-plans-agnelli-european-clubs

 

Doubt that'll bother them much, they've only been doing so for the last 8 months.

 

I don't think they mean the way you think, they want to play their youth team in Serie A at the expense of someone else.

[Wullie]

If this happened then clubs like Juventus should not be allowed to play B teams in the national leagues. If they want to form a European Super League let them and maybe we can return to competitive leagues again.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/25/promotion-relegation-champions-league-plans-agnelli-european-clubs

 

Doubt that'll bother them much, they've only been doing so for the last 8 months.

 

I don't think they mean the way you think, they want to play their youth team in Serie A at the expense of someone else.

 

I see what you mean.

[Infinitely Content]

Missed this  Rafael van der Vaart to make his darts debut next month.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/darts/47969274

 

Is he not a bit too good looking to be playing darts?

 

I'd shag him like.

[The College Dropout]

xG will always be somewhat lousy until it’s weighted by shooter which is nye on impossible as even then the best player is stil liable to a brainfart. Saying that it’s still miles better than shots attempted or shots on target though. As with all stats they’re worthless without watching the game. Possession being the age old example.

 

I don't think that makes sense as the sample size would be too small for most players under 25 for it to be effective.

 

Lots of the goals Cisse scored in his purple patch might indicate he could score goals for fun forever. But when you look at it, he was scoring goals with a very low chance of going in - in terms of the wider game which is an indication he was over-performing and you can expect his goal return to reduce.

 

Some players e.g. Kane and Messi tend to consistently over-perform their xg and that's fine. They're tremendous finishers and score goals others don't.

 

I think a penalty is 0.8. 4 out of 5 penalties go in and I think that works well. Adding in how many a GK saves or the history of the shooter doesn't help imo.

 

Also as an older metric, shots within the box was a good indication rather than shots in general. Shots in the box tend to be of a higher quality than outside.

[Pata]

xG is a great idea but has a long way to go still. I know everything is based on stats with a relatively big sample size but I still very often strongly disagree with them. Only registering shots is just one of the problems.

 

There also has to be some system to valuate the player taking the shot. For example Messi's first goal against ManU (where he cut in from the right and took a shot from just outside the box in the centre of the field) was given 4% and I would honestly think it's close to 25%.

[Guest]

I’ve just seen that Australian League penalty. Did he shite mean it to go in like that man.

 

Mishit Panenka that got very lucky.

[BlueStar]

[David Edgar]

[Dinho lad]

 

[Gallowgate End]

I know everything is based on stats with a relatively big sample size but I still very often strongly disagree with them. Only registering shots is just one of the problems.

 

There also has to be some system to valuate the player taking the shot. For example Messi's first goal against ManU (where he cut in from the right and took a shot from just outside the box in the centre of the field) was given 4% and I would honestly think it's close to 25%.

 

And people still take xG serious

 

 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Surely the point of a player like Messi is that he converts chances that aren't 'expected goals'? It would seem weird to increase the expected goals because it's Messi on the ball. The stat then wouldn't show how Barca did compared to normal expectations.

[triggs]

Surely the point of a player like Messi is that he converts chances that aren't 'expected goals'? It would seem weird to increase the expected goals because it's Messi on the ball. The stat then wouldn't show how Barca did compared to normal expectations.

Exactly, its a 4% chance a normal player scores from there. It shows how good Messi is at finishing that people weren't surprised that he scored

[leffe186]

Surely the point of a player like Messi is that he converts chances that aren't 'expected goals'? It would seem weird to increase the expected goals because it's Messi on the ball. The stat then wouldn't show how Barca did compared to normal expectations.

Exactly, its a 4% chance a normal player scores from there. It shows how good Messi is at finishing that people weren't surprised that he scored

 

Doesn’t that rather highlight the xG score for the Sissoko chance as a problem though?

[triggs]

Surely the point of a player like Messi is that he converts chances that aren't 'expected goals'? It would seem weird to increase the expected goals because it's Messi on the ball. The stat then wouldn't show how Barca did compared to normal expectations.

Exactly, its a 4% chance a normal player scores from there. It shows how good Messi is at finishing that people weren't surprised that he scored

 

Doesn’t that rather highlight the xG score for the Sissoko chance as a problem though?

How?

 

[leffe186]

Surely the point of a player like Messi is that he converts chances that aren't 'expected goals'? It would seem weird to increase the expected goals because it's Messi on the ball. The stat then wouldn't show how Barca did compared to normal expectations.

Exactly, its a 4% chance a normal player scores from there. It shows how good Messi is at finishing that people weren't surprised that he scored

 

Doesn’t that rather highlight the xG score for the Sissoko chance as a problem though?

How?

 

 

Well people’s (tongue-in-cheek) argument about why the score for the Sissoko chance was so low was because he’s shite in those situations. The point is to rate the quality of the chance regardless of player, so that just makes 11% seem more erroneous.

[triggs]

Surely the point of a player like Messi is that he converts chances that aren't 'expected goals'? It would seem weird to increase the expected goals because it's Messi on the ball. The stat then wouldn't show how Barca did compared to normal expectations.

Exactly, its a 4% chance a normal player scores from there. It shows how good Messi is at finishing that people weren't surprised that he scored

 

Doesn’t that rather highlight the xG score for the Sissoko chance as a problem though?

How?

 

 

Well people’s (tongue-in-cheek) argument about why the score for the Sissoko chance was so low was because he’s shite in those situations. The point is to rate the quality of the chance regardless of player, so that just makes 11% seem more erroneous.

No, it was low because the average player has an 11% chance of scoring from that position if that is indeed correct, its done on an average of everyone. The data wouldn't be big enough to do an individual one on each player

[Wullie]

Which position does the xG take as the "chance"?

 

Is it when Sissoko picks the ball up on the halfway line there's an 11% chance of scoring, or when he's about to swing his left foot at it with just the keeper to beat? Surely the "chance of scoring" changes with every second the play moves on? If it doesn't take into account the player on the ball, does it at least take into account that he's a right footed player in a left sided situation?

[triggs]

Which position does the xG take as the "chance"?

 

Is it when Sissoko picks the ball up on the halfway line there's an 11% chance of scoring, or when he's about to swing his left foot at it with just the keeper to beat? Surely the "chance of scoring" changes with every second the play moves on? If it doesn't take into account the player on the ball, does it at least take into account that he's a right footed player in a left sided situation?

From when the shot is taken, not sure on the left/right footed one. Are people sure about that 11% btw? Seems a bit mad looking at that shot again

[leffe186]

Which position does the xG take as the "chance"?

 

Is it when Sissoko picks the ball up on the halfway line there's an 11% chance of scoring, or when he's about to swing his left foot at it with just the keeper to beat? Surely the "chance of scoring" changes with every second the play moves on? If it doesn't take into account the player on the ball, does it at least take into account that he's a right footed player in a left sided situation?

From when the shot is taken, not sure on the left/right footed one. Are people sure about that 11% btw? Seems a bit mad looking at that shot again

 

That’s my point. I understand broadly how xG works and obviously that it doesn’t take into account the individual, but just looking at that Sissoko chance makes you question the maths.

[jdckelly]

personally I'll stick to shots on target rather than xg

[Rich]

xG is class if you know what you're doing with it. Opta's version is far, far from perfect though. Give it a few more years.

[The College Dropout]

I think the average across players makes it a more interesting and meaningful stat. 

 

Me and my Arsenal mate were discussing Laca vs Auba.  He said Laca was a better all round player and I agreed. I said Auba is a better goal scorer because he’s a much better poacher, better instincts in the box (likely to have more chances).  He agreed but made the point that he thinks Laca is a better finisher and that Auba wasn’t a great finisher at all. 

 

 

I wasn’t sure about that but the xg backs up his claim. Laca has 13 goals but an expected xg of 11.2 or something. He’s scoring more than you should expect but his xg isn’t that high.

 

Auba’s Xg is something like 19.8 and he’s scored 19 goals. So he’s getting much better chances (pens included) but he doesn’t tuck them away above average. 

 

My friend said 1v1 with the goalie he’d take Laca and I think those stats bolster his claim.

 

This is why I was so mad when I dropped Deulofeu from my fantasy team the week he scored a hat trick. For the season he’s been trending an xg of .35, 1 in 3 which is excellent for his price and position. But he wasn’t scoring. Didn’t score in the 5 games I had him.  Dropped him ‘this lad can’t finish’. Scores a hat trick. Goes back to something closer to his xg. The stats indicated goals would eventually come.