STM Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 1 minute ago, TRon said: There are also a clutch of sides who can challenge us that aren't far off now either, such as Villa and Everton. I expect we'll finish above them tbh, but there's not that much difference in squad quality, if anything they probably have more depth. Villa yes, but have a shite manager. Everton haven't the quality. It's actually quite weird that none of the expected 7th-10th sides are actually up there (I didn't have Brighton top half). Palace, West Ham, Wolves and Leicester all under performing the latter two are terminal IMO and won't make top half this season. We've actually done OK to sit 10th while not having picked up the points we deserve. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
relámpago blanco Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 37 minutes ago, TRon said: There are also a clutch of sides who can challenge us that aren't far off now either, such as Villa and Everton. I expect we'll finish above them tbh, but there's not that much difference in squad quality, if anything they probably have more depth. I think our first 11 is better than either by a margin but in terms of depth yes. They both have a poor manager though. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 (edited) Based on strength of opposition, plus home and away variation, in June I calculated how a top-ten kind of season would be likely to progress. I have corrected for the postponed game in September. On this estimate, we are two points below where we ‘should be’, at end of September, on the way to the estimated 54 points required. (10th had 51 points last year; 59 in 2020-21 and 54 2019-20). Edited September 18, 2022 by Coffee_Johnny Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stottie Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 If you have time to waste, fbref shows us in the top 7 for lots of metrics. Shots per game, shortest average distance from goal per shot, passes into the box, crosses etc. The defensive stats are all sound, if that's not obvious from watching the games. The one stat we are rock bottom on is "expected assists minus assists", in other words, chances actively created but missed. Our goals per shot is also very low, even though we are shooting on average at the fourth shortest distance from the goal. So we can add poor finishing to injuries, more sinned against than sinning with decisions, and weird circumstances like the Brighton heatwave and Bournemouth mournfest, both I reckon the two worst performances. Ditch the morbid stuff at the Bournemouth game, get the flags up and the music on, and the increased momentum probably gives us two more points. The injuries include that awful Tranmere game and Maxi running the length of the pitch to defend an attack featuring a clear shove. Just keep working hard, be patient, and it will come. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PauloGeordio Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 46 minutes ago, Stottie said: If you have time to waste, fbref shows us in the top 7 for lots of metrics. Shots per game, shortest average distance from goal per shot, passes into the box, crosses etc. The defensive stats are all sound, if that's not obvious from watching the games. The one stat we are rock bottom on is "expected assists minus assists", in other words, chances actively created but missed. Our goals per shot is also very low, even though we are shooting on average at the fourth shortest distance from the goal. So we can add poor finishing to injuries, more sinned against than sinning with decisions, and weird circumstances like the Brighton heatwave and Bournemouth mournfest, both I reckon the two worst performances. Ditch the morbid stuff at the Bournemouth game, get the flags up and the music on, and the increased momentum probably gives us two more points. The injuries include that awful Tranmere game and Maxi running the length of the pitch to defend an attack featuring a clear shove. Just keep working hard, be patient, and it will come. 8 games until we can go shopping again too! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 16 hours ago, Coffee_Johnny said: Based on strength of opposition, plus home and away variation, in June I calculated how a top-ten kind of season would be likely to progress. I have corrected for the postponed game in September. On this estimate, we are two points below where we ‘should be’, at end of September, on the way to the estimated 54 points required. (10th had 51 points last year; 59 in 2020-21 and 54 2019-20). That's exactly how I calculated it as well. We should have picked those points up Vs Bournemouth but were also robbed of them against Palace. Considering that and that we've had our best 3 players out injured, I think we're in pretty good shape all things considered. Think we should be and probably are aiming for around 60 points though. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanj Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Off the balance of what I’ve seen of us at Full strength, I fancy us to pick up points where we’d normally get 0 or 1 this season. Not to mention we’re 8 matches from the window. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkie Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 I think 7th will be beyond us this year because the squad doesn't have the depth and it's going to be difficult to sustain the level of form we've experienced in 2022, but I'm really excited about the cups. That has to be a goal this season assuming we keep the relegation vortex at arms length, which I think we will comfortably. We've got the mentality and the ability to play the occasion when it warrants, and that's what the cups call for much of the time. Assuming we're not ravaged with injury troubles on the day of a game, you fancy us to sneak past anyone. The Palace game can't come soon enough for me. Lots of all-PL ties, including our one. Win that and we'll start sensing it, for sure. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 I thought 7th might be beyond us, but having seen the form of others who should be up there, I think it's wide open this year. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanj Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Need to pick up a head of steam these final 8 before the World Cup break Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbandit Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Massively wide open, we’ll go on a great run at some point as well, don’t think it’ll take us long to click when we have ASM, Bruno, Isak and Wilson all starting Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Kid Icarus said: That's exactly how I calculated it as well. We should have picked those points up Vs Bournemouth but were also robbed of them against Palace. Considering that and that we've had our best 3 players out injured, I think we're in pretty good shape all things considered. Think we should be and probably are aiming for around 60 points though. Yep, we’re on the lower end of being on track. Charting it this way will help once we’re more games in. Even by end of October and we’ll be able to see if we are going to need a miraculous against the odds run in again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myleftboot Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, gbandit said: Massively wide open, we’ll go on a great run at some point as well, don’t think it’ll take us long to click when we have ASM, Bruno, Isak and Wilson all starting As long as we can keep them fit and playing. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
54 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiresias Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 still annoyed to be below dreadful man u tbh Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stottie Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Add on two points for the Palace robbed goal and I think that's a good start. Eighth most goals scored, sixth fewest conceded, with both of the top two played says its a fair position. Miggy joint top scorer! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikon Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Keep players fit and sign a wide player and some sort of midfielder and it would be looking very good going forward. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 I still get unjustifiably wound up ghst we're two points worse off due to that absolure cock up v Palace. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, The Prophet said: I still get unjustifiably wound up ghst we're two points worse off due to that absolure cock up v Palace. Think of it this way, for the dropped 4 points vs Palace and Bournemouth, we made up 2 unexpected points vs Man City and Brighton. All during a run where we've had injuries as well. We're in really good shape in the circumstances. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 38 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said: Think of it this way, for the dropped 4 points vs Palace and Bournemouth, we made up 2 unexpected points vs Man City and Brighton. All during a run where we've had injuries as well. We're in really good shape in the circumstances. Oh was referring to VAR, not our performance. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Just now, The Prophet said: Oh was referring to VAR, not our performance. No I know, I'm just saying Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dokko Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Should be 4th, such a shame about the last 2 home games. Hopefully injuries are clearing and we start picking up a few Ws Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 I often look at goal difference as another barometer for a teams performance, especially when they have been unlucky with results. We don't concede many, which is a metric of a good side in the making. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Only Man City have conceded less. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyCisse Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 We should be top 4 even with just one corrected VAR decision. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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