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STM

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57 members have voted

  1. 1. Where will we finish?

    • 1st
      3
    • 2nd
      1
    • 3rd
      8
    • 4th
      15

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2 hours ago, Donut said:

Squad too thin for 7th. We have far too many Championship quality players. That being said I'm still enjoying all of this to the fullest. Dark days are over.

Which of our players are championship quality players?

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If you sub in Forest for Norwich (bottom v play off winner). Compared to last season we're:

 

Forest (h) (draw v win) - two points better off

Brighton (a) (draw v draw) - no gain

City (h) (loss v draw) - one point better off

Wolves (a) (loss v draw) - one point better off

 

Overall we're +4 points and +6 goal diffetence better off from last season. We're clearly far more difficult to beat, even when we're not playing well.

 

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Just now, The Prophet said:

If you sub in Forest for Norwich (bottom v play off winner). Compared to last season we're:

 

Forest (h) (draw v win) - two points better off

Brighton (a) (draw v draw) - no gain

City (h) (loss v draw) - one point better off

Wolves (a) (loss v draw) - one point better off

 

Overall we're +4 points and +6 goal diffetence better off from last season. We're clearly far more difficult to beat, even when we're not playing well.

 

More importantly for me is we still looks solid at the back, despite trying to play a much more attacking game. Don’t think we played badly today either, just missing that final bit of quality.

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I can't wait to get this Liverpool game out of the way. Honestly we've had a dreadful set of opening fixtures and we've put in some unreal performances to walk away from them unbeaten, or at worse with one defeat. We'll hopefully kick on with the run we have after Liverpool and get a few wins on the board. Not too many of our rivals for 7th will avoid defeat away to Brighton and at home to City. We desperately need cover in midfield though because one of Bruno and Joelinton will be out again at some stage and if either were to get a long injury of more than a month we'd be really thin. 

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On 21/08/2022 at 20:55, STM said:

 

Game week 3 update:

 

We have now 5 points from 3 games, which is above the 1.5 PPG target which should see us around 7th place.

 

The beauty of this is that we have played a side whom we wouldn't have expected to get anything from in Man City, as well as a very creditable away draw at Brighton.

 

As for those other sides who we presume will be near us come the end of the season:

 

Brighton: 7 from 3 (outstanding in fairness)

Villa: 3 from 3

Wolves: 1 from 3

Leicester: 1 from 3

West Ham: 0 from 3

Man Utd: 0 from 2 (play Liverpool tommorow)

Palace: 4 from 3 (excellent since they have had Liverpool and Arsenal in the first 3)

 

In summary; US, Brighton and Palace have had great starts, the rest have been shite.

 

Game week 4 update:

 

6 points from 4 games and we are bang on our target of 1.5 points per game. With the added advantage of playing Man City at home and getting an unexpected point, as well as 2 very good points against top 10 sides.

 

Other sides:

 

Brighton: 10/12 Unbelievable start.

Villa: 3/12 Still suffering Gerrard tax

Wolves: 2/12 Very pragmatic, Lage will be lucky to see out the season

Leicester: 1/12 Way underperforming

West Ham 3/12 Will start marching up the table you feel

Man United 6/12 Another side that are on the march

Palace 4/12 Had Arsenal, City and Liverpool in first 4 games, so are actually doing really well.

 

Summary: Things changed this week, with West Ham and Man United starting to move. Leicester and Villa will do well to be top half sides at this rate. Brighton once again by and away the strongest starters.

 

We are doing well, unbeaten, scored 6, conceded 4 with players injured. Probably slightly ahead of target due to fixtures but we have Liverpool next. Period after the Liverpool game will be key.

 

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4 minutes ago, Donut said:

Darlow, Lascelles, Lewis, Dummet, Longstaff, Murphy and Wood.

Only 2 started today, a game we drew, and both helped us finish 11th in the PL last season.

 

We need strength in depth, sure.

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We've also just signed an outstanding striker, which whatever way you look at it, is a game changer for us. Chris Wood is now 3rd choice.

 

Get through Liverpool, get Wilson, Bruno and Isak involved and we are cooking on gas.

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We need at home 10 more wins & 2 more draws (32 points to go)

 

We need away from home 7 more wins & 1 more draw (22 points to go)

 

 

 

Nottingham Forest (H)- 3 points required - 3 points won (On track for 60 points)

Brighton (A) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 61 points)

Manchester City (H) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 62 points)

Wolves (A) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 62 points)

Liverpool (A) - 0 points required

Crystal Palace (H) - 3 points required

West Ham (A) - 0 points required

Bournemouth (H) - 3 points required

Fulham (A) - 3 points required

Brentford (H) - 3 points required

Manchester United (A) - 0 points required

Everton (H) - 3 points required

Spurs (A) - 0 points required

Aston Villa (H) - 3 points required

Southampton (A) - 3 points required

Chelsea (H) - 0 points required

Leicester (A) - 0 points required

Leeds (H) - 3 points required

Arsenal (A) - 0 points required

Fulham (H) - 3 points required

Crystal Palace (A) - 0 points required (originally 1 point required)

West Ham (H) - 1 point required

Bournemouth (A) - 3 points required

Liverpool (H) - 0 points required

Brighton (H) - 3 points required

Man City (A) - 0 points required

Wolves (H) - 3 points required

Nottingham Forest (A) - 3 points required

Manchester United (H) - 0 points required (originally 1 point required)

Brentford (A) - 1 point required

Aston Villa (A) - 3 points required

Spurs (H) - 0 points required

Everton (A) - 3 points required

Southampton (H) - 3 points required

Arsenal (H) - 0 points required

Leeds (A) - 3 points required

Leicester (H) - 1 point required

Chelsea (A) - 0 points required

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4 minutes ago, Unbelievable said:

On track for 63 surely, if none were required today?

 

Originally it was 1 point required at Wolves, but it became 0 because of the draw at Brighton in terms of achieving 60 points.

 

Crystal Palace away which was originally 1 point becomes 0 since we gained that point today.

 

 

Edited by Optimistic Nut

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Ah right. I think it makes more sense to say how much above or below “par” we are for achieving let’s say 60 points based on most likely way of achieving that target, but it’s your method. Thanks for putting in the effort.

 

Before the season started I said 10th would be the target, but with our positive start, Isak joining and some rivals looking distinctly average I am revising to 7th-8th. European football next season could be a realistic proposition, if we can prevent serious injuries to key players.

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1 hour ago, STM said:

Which of our players are championship quality players?

 

IMO the following are Championship standard: Darlow, Ritchie, Dummett, Lewis, Longstaff, Murphy, Wood.

 

List is definitely getting shorter, and it's completely unrealistic to expect us to have PL standard fringe/cover players in all positions until we actually get into Europe where we'll be able to give fringe players playing time beyond 5-10 minutes at the end of games.

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Lewis doesn’t belong in that company I don’t think, at least not until we actually see him have some game

time. The rest are to a man championship standard, with Ritchie and Dummett looking like they’d struggle in that league. Murphy might get by while he still has pace 

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21 shots away at Wolves with no Bruno and Wood up front. We dominated possession and restricted them to under 70% passing accuracy for a so-called passing team. I saw most of Tottenham-Wolves last week and thought we handled them at least as well as Spurs, who were at home and had their main attackers on the pitch.

 

The injuries have me worried, but the system looks like its working. In 360 minutes, we have conceded four goals, two of which involved the ball passing between a player (the largely blameless Willock)'s feet outside the box. Half of those minutes were against the teams in positions 1 and 2 in the league. 

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Realistically you are looking at Us, Brighton and West Ham for 7-9. Think the top 6 will be the same as last season and teams like Wolves and Leicester have regressed from last season . I don’t see teams like Leeds ,Southampton ,Palace, Villa , Brentford troubling us either . 7th-9th looks nailed on for us .

 

 

Edited by Geogaddi

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The way we're playing could get us there. I just worry now with our 4 best players all potentially out with Hamstrings that the momentum and feel good factor that's carried us through this year could finally pop. 

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29 minutes ago, xLiaaamx said:

The way we're playing could get us there. I just worry now with our 4 best players all potentially out with Hamstrings that the momentum and feel good factor that's carried us through this year could finally pop. 

 

It didn't affect us last year.

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