The Europeometer™ (2023/24)

[r0cafella]

1 minute ago, The Prophet said:

Tl;dr - when it clicks, we're going to dish out some absolute hidings.

 

Not with an average of 1.6xg per game we aren’t. 

[The Prophet]

2 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

Not with an average of 1.6xg per game we aren’t. 

 

Average is the key word though. There will be games where we overperform our xG.

[r0cafella]

1 minute ago, The Prophet said:

 

Average is the key word though. There will be games where we overperform our xG.

Indeed, we lack the guile to give our hidings to teams sitting deep against us at present. We won’t finish top four this season but it will be an interesting summer. 
 

My totally unsolicited hot take is we will see one of Wilson, Bruno or ASM leave in the summer. 

[Kid Icarus]

An xG average of 1.6 is good. 5th best in the league I think, higher than both Man United and Spurs.

 

Everything there backs up what I think I've seen from us and why I'm not overly concerned. Yes, the whole Trippier Miggy thing might seem stale and predictable to us (you could maybe make the same argument for Man City a couple of years ago with their overloads too) but it's no less effective, we're just not finishing chances.

[HaydnNUFC]

1 hour ago, The Prophet said:

Tl;dr - when it clicks, we're going to dish out some absolute hidings.

 

 

Have felt that we would tbh, eventually. Want us to take the cup final result and all our frustrations out on Wolves a la West Ham (h) in 1996.

[CM1961]

On 28/02/2023 at 17:26, samptime29 said:

Feel as though we absolutely have to win the Wolves and Forest games if we want top 4.

But is it too early for us to finish 4th and be playing Champions League ?  Perhaps finishing 5th/6th would be a better position for our stage of development ?

[Nine]

Some of our attacking phases of play have become predictable and while the stats suggest that we are nearly as effective as pre WC on chances made you can see during games that teams have adapted to our deal with the Trippier/Miggy link especially, goals will still come from that side but just at a slower rate than before. I doubt we adjust our attacking approach that much as our xG is still good, but a more direct approach in certain games (even with Bruno in the team) might be an idea now we have a player like Gordon available.

 

People saying make changes to the defence and swap players out (Targett for Burn??) are just blurting out their frustrations imo, this squad just lost a cup final.. the best way to restore confidence to our back 5 is obviously to take starting places away from the players that got us there  With that being said I’d expect some rotation to our forwards, I think Gordon will get starts the deeper we get into the season as will Isak.

 

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Nine

[NEEJ]

2 minutes ago, Nine said:

Some of our attacking phases of play have become predictable and while the stats suggest that we are nearly as effective as pre WC on chances made you can see during games that teams have adapted to our deal with the Trippier/Miggy link especially, goals will still come from that side but just at a slower rate than before. I doubt we adjust our attacking approach that much as our xG is still good, but a more direct approach in certain games (even with Bruno in the team) might be an idea now we have a player like Gordon available.

 

People saying make changes to the defence and swap players out (Targett for Burn??) are just blurting out their frustrations imo, this squad just lost a cup final.. the best way to restore confidence to our back 5 is obviously to take starting places away from the players that got us there  With that being said I’d expect some rotation to our forwards, I think Gordon will get starts the deeper we get into the season as will Isak.

 

 

 

I don't think Targett for Burn is that much of a blurted out frustration, is it? Burn has been running on empty over the last few weeks and (Leicester goal aside) he's absolutely bobbins in the final third. Targett coming back will give us more balance and more options going forward, both in-play and at set-pieces. 

[Nine]

12 minutes ago, NEEJ said:

I don't think Targett for Burn is that much of a blurted out frustration, is it? Burn has been running on empty over the last few weeks and (Leicester goal aside) he's absolutely bobbins in the final third. Targett coming back will give us more balance and more options going forward, both in-play and at set-pieces. 

Some of our players do look to be suffering from burn out yes, but I can’t see Targett starting until after the next international break now our schedule will slow down to a standard 1 game a week until April. We know Howe will show loyalty to a starting 11 who are 5th in the league, he’s been starting a out of form and recently back from injury/sickness Wilson over Isak.. I dont see it being any different in the short term for Burn/Targett.

 

The argument for Targett adding something else in the final third will not be the priority when our defence has been performing as well as it has, you don’t risk the foundations of what has got you to a European spot and a cup final to start a player who hasn’t started all season on the balance of maybe adding a bit more going forward.

 

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Nine

[NEEJ]

9 minutes ago, Nine said:

Some of our players do look to be suffering from burn out yes, but I can’t see Targett starting until after the next international break now our schedule will slow down to a standard 1 game a week until April. We know Howe will show loyalty to a starting 11 who are 5th in the league, he’s been starting a out of form and recently back from injury/sickness Wilson over Isak.. I dont see it being any different in the short term for Burn/Targett.

 

The argument for Targett adding something else in the final third will not be the priority when our defence has been performing as well as it has, you don’t risk the foundations of what has got you to a European spot and a cup final to start a player who hasn’t started all season on the balance of maybe adding a bit more going forward.

 

 

 

I know this is a moot point as Howe will likely keep faith with the usual back four (and Pope), but we've hardly been rock solid at the back over the last few games. I think it's time for a few changes, and I'm hoping that by the time we play Wolves those changes have happened. 

 

Disclaimer: I love Eddie Howe. 

[The Prophet]

Burn has looked cooked for a few games now, I don't think it's knee jerk to suggest he could use a rest.

 

Targett is a solid option to have, whether he's fit enough is a different matter. Burn might bring leadership and a physical presence, but Targett is a better one on one defender and is an improvement in the final third.

[Nine]

50 minutes ago, NEEJ said:

I know this is a moot point as Howe will likely keep faith with the usual back four (and Pope), but we've hardly been rock solid at the back over the last few games. I think it's time for a few changes, and I'm hoping that by the time we play Wolves those changes have happened. 

 

Disclaimer: I love Eddie Howe. 

Don’t worry, I won’t get all emotional and accuse you of not trusting Howe because you’d like to see something different  

 

Personally I just feel it’s not the time to change our back 5 under the circumstances, but after the international break things could change depending on how the next 3 games go. 

[Decky]

Looking a lot bigger a task now with Liverpool firmly back into the mix. I'm honestly not overly interested in this weekend because honestly fuck Man City away. Just a dreadful fixture for every team and anything there is a bonus. But we've a good run in after that. Time to get our form back and go for it. 

[Geordie Ahmed]

2 minutes ago, Decky said:

Looking a lot bigger a task now with Liverpool firmly back into the mix. I'm honestly not overly interested in this weekend because honestly fuck Man City away. Just a dreadful fixture for every team and anything there is a bonus. But we've a good run in after that. Time to get our form back and go for it. 

Liverpool have the two Manchester clubs in their next 3 fixtures so could do with them doing us a favour

[nufcjb]

I'm actually fearing our slump to continue because honestly, even Wolves at home next weekend looks like the kind of game where some of our home fans will moan and the players get frustrated and it'll end in a draw. My only hope is that if the cup was a distraction, the main reason behind the slump, then we would be over it now. Players need to react and need to react fast. 

 

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by nufcjb

[AyeDubbleYoo]

The more I think about it the more I think Man City could hammer us. We’re allowing space in the channels and we’re not pressing like we were. 
 

Will try not to get too down if that happens anyway, but even Wolves is not an easy game. 
 

It doesn’t really matter too much to me where we finish, I just want to see us playing well and scoring again ASAP. 

 

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by AyeDubbleYoo

[Beth]

We overperformed with what we had in the first half of the season and it's begining to even out now. Sixth place is our likely finish, which would still be exceptional all things considered.

[wormy]

I can understand the calls for Targett to come in in theory, but considering how little he's played this season due to injuries, you have to assume it's going to take him time to get back up to speed.

 

I dread to think how quickly we'd see 'idiotic decision to throw him in' if Howe did decide to start him in the near future and he looks off the pace.

[The Prophet]

Our press has been largely fine since the World Cup. Obviously it didn't look as effective when Bruno got himself suspended and the midfield lost a bit of balance. 

[Paully]

I said after the January window when we failed to strength in CM and let Shelvey go that we wouldn’t finish top four and my words were “an injury to Bruno and we’re knackered”……....and then he gets sent-off hours later!

 

I’d have snapped your hands off for top 8 never mind top 8 (surely!?) and a Cup Final! We’ve got a very good 13 players but the squad depth is poor but that will be addressed in the next two windows.

 

Get this weekend out of the way and we'be got a great run of fixtures and can only get our mojo back!

 

It’s been a superb season and it’s just the start!

[Rich]

Sixth and a cup final would be a tremendous season, but I'm not ready to give up on finishing in the top four just yet. It's still in our hands.

 

If we can get even a fraction of last season's defiance back into the team/crowd and treat each individual game as we did then (15 cup finals, blah blah), we can still get more points than both Spurs and Liverpool will manage between now and the end of the season.

 

Feel like we really just need to dust waselves doon and get back to basics, and we'll be grand.

[Miggys First Goal]

Call me crazy, but I don’t want CL football next season. Our squad isn’t up to scratch, and I don’t think we’ll buy enough quality in the summer to suddenly make us super amazing. If we manage to finish fourth I honestly think we’d get stuffed in the CL and embarrass ourselves. 
 

If you’d offered me a top 10 finish and a cup run at the start of the season I’d have snapped your hands off. 

[Coffee_Johnny]

Only the league to focus on now, unlike some others. We’re still bang on the average points total for a 4th place finish, with many winnable games to come. Here’s hoping! 

[Rich]

4 minutes ago, Miggys First Goal said:

Call me crazy, but I don’t want CL football next season. Our squad isn’t up to scratch, and I don’t think we’ll buy enough quality in the summer to suddenly make us super amazing. If we manage to finish fourth I honestly think we’d get stuffed in the CL and embarrass ourselves. 
 

If you’d offered me a top 10 finish and a cup run at the start of the season I’d have snapped your hands off. 

 

I'm struggling to put the disdain I have for this post into words, so here's a Michael Scott gif.

 

[RS]

We’ve gone from over-performing to performing as expected with this squad. 6th and a cup final would be a huge season. 
I’d say Brighton are better than us on the whole and are our biggest challenge to 6th place, assuming Liverpool push on as expected and Chelski keep stuttering.