SteV Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 If Arsenal were to lose at Man City, then drop points against Chelsea (yeah, Chelsea are bobbins I know…), you’d have to think that would be the title race over going into their match against us. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
McCormick Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 I think it’ll go to the last day. Would suck really hard if Chelsea uncharacteristically show up for that match. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 minute ago, McCormick said: I think it’ll go to the last day. Would suck really hard if Chelsea uncharacteristically show up for that match. I don't. If we beat Spurs as we should, we will wrap it up long before the last day. We should have at least 63 points by GW33 with a game in hand with Spurs on 59 points at best with 5 tricky games to go. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUPERTOON Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, McCormick said: I think it’ll go to the last day. Would suck really hard if Chelsea uncharacteristically show up for that match. I’ll have to disappear that day if that’s the case, the nerves would be unbearable. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyc35i Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 I’m hoping it’s done before Chelsea away because even though they’re shite this season, when do we ever beat them away from home….. Going there needing to win would not be something I wanna put myself through! If we perform how we have been all season then, it will be done by then surely Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
McCormick Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said: I’ll have to disappear that day if that’s the case, the nerves would be unbearable. Oh, definitely. The Spurs match will be bad enough Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoU Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 If it goes to the last match it will be excruciating for sure, but not unwatchably so. I could live with us losing as it would still have been an incredible season and achievement so early in our journey back. The league cup was more important to me to win than qualifying for CL, and even that did not hurt as much as I thought it would, due to the immense pride I still had in the team. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFEE Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 8 hours ago, Kanji said: Why do we always bloody play Everton on a weekday night? So we will have gone to that city twice this season and under lights Sadly the fixture computer isn’t as random as people think. It’s filled with certain info via the TV companies, Police and local councils that the chances of certain fixtures becoming repetitive and following a pattern quite high. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, LFEE said: Sadly the fixture computer isn’t as random as people think. It’s filled with certain info via the TV companies, Police and local councils that the chances of certain fixtures becoming repetitive and following a pattern quite high. Indeed. Buzzing to be going back to Burnley on a Monday night next season…. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Another reason to want Everton to go down. Cheers chaps. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gallowgate Toon Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 As long as we can keep players fit now, I think we'll get 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. I'm not feeling that fearful of Arsenal anymore but feel like Brighton will be a problem for us with how they play. Hopefully, it's all sewn up by then. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holloway Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 If it goes to the last day I'm getting a dog Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shays Given Tim Flowers Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 I am optimistic that we won’t lose at home for the remainder. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 (edited) Providing Saturday was a blip, a bad day at the office or whatever you want to call it, I still think we're looking at a worst case scenario of top five, but we still have a very good chance of top four. We have eight fixtures left. Four of the bottom five, three in the top six and a midtable floater. Crucially the three top six teams all come to SJP. Looing at it objectively, it's a mixed bag of fixtures, but one where we should be able to keep up our points average of circa 1.8 points per game and hit the 70 point mark. That'd require either five wins, or four wins and a couple of draws, so we even have space for a slip up or two. The reason I say 70 point a is because of how much work everyone else has to do to hit that. Spurs are three points behind with a game less to play. To hit 70 points they'd require six wins or five wins and two draw from their last seven. There isn't much margin for error. Their next three are us (a), Man United (h), Liverpool (a). So to hit 70 points they'd need at least a five point haul there. Villa are six points back with a game less to play. To hit 70 points they'd need to win all of their remaining games. They still have trips to Old Trafford and Anfield, along with hosting Spurs and Brighton. Brighton are arguably our biggest threat, but to hit the 70 point mark they'd need 21 points from nine games, including games against the entire top six. With their fixture pile up it's going to be a tough to churn out and average of more than two points a game. Finally Liverpool are the rank outsiders. Like Villa, they'd pretty much need to win all of their remaining games to hit the 70 point mark. They have kind fixtures and very decent home form, but they just can't be trusted on the road regardless of who they play. They've already slipped up at Forest, Everton, Bournemouth, Wolves and Palace this season. The tl;dr is that if we hit 70 points, it's incredibly likely we'll be in the Champions League to next season. Other sides either have too much work to do to hit that target, more difficult fixtures or fixture pile-up. I have no doubt there's twists and turns to come, but another 4-5 wins should do the trick. Edited April 17, 2023 by The Prophet Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 @The Prophet agreed and always been the case. We need to beat Spurs. it’s such a crucial game. Beat Spurs we need 9-11 points from 7. With 4 games against bottom 6 teams, we should get that comfortably. If we beat Spurs. Another team need to be shit hot and us to fall apart to finish below 4th. Beat Spurs. ASM back. Avoid major injuries. 9/10. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDT Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 What data are Opta using to say we've got a 84% chance of top 4? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack27 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Just now, KDT said: What data are Opta using to say we've got a 84% chance of top 4? remaining fixture difficulty I would imagine Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, KDT said: What data are Opta using to say we've got a 84% chance of top 4? Everything of relevance that's available to them, probably? We were at almost 88% before the weekend. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Spurs could (should?) be out of the equation after the next 2 weekends (plus midweek round of games). You can see them losing all 3 with their current implosion and we've a damn good chance of picking up 3 wins. Villa will do well to pick up 5 points from their next 3 (draws away to Brentford and ManU, win at home v Fulham) which would put them 11 behind us - even with a win at Brentford they would be 9 behind with 12 to play for. Brighton don't play as may games with only a home game to Wolves. They'd have games in hand but a gap of 16 points with 24 to play for you'd think is too much. So 6:30pm 30th April we can crack open the champagne Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadow Puppets Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 I haven't followed the Champions League closely in years... do 4th place still have to go through a qualifying stage in order to reach the group stages? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decky Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Just now, Shadow Puppets said: I haven't followed the Champions League closely in years... do 4th place still have to go through a qualifying stage in order to reach the group stages? No, all 4 are straight into the groups. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadow Puppets Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Decky said: No, all 4 are straight into the groups. Great! (Should we make it) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUPERTOON Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 I’m convinced if we get 7 points from the next 3 then we will do it. We really should be targeting 9 points from them as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkie Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Decky said: 6 minutes ago, Shadow Puppets said: haven't followed the Champions League closely in years... do 4th place still have to go through a qualifying stage in order to reach the group stages? No, all 4 are straight into the groups. Didn't know that. Absolutely ridiculous tbh. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decky Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Yorkie said: Didn't know that. Absolutely ridiculous tbh. Same in Germany, Italy and Spain too. Plus at the end of the next season 5th might do it as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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