NUFC Transfer Rumours

[joeyt]

Reiss Nelson signed a new contract at Arsenal until 2027

[The Prophet]

2 minutes ago, Gawalls said:

Arsenal are in a good financial position

 

talk sport article stating arsenal don’t need to sell as their wages are lower than they were in 2018.

 

Bsd phrasing from me, Arsenal wanting to start selling. Trimming the squad will give them more flexibility going forward.

 

[wormy]

2 minutes ago, joeyt said:

Reiss Nelson signed a new contract at Arsenal until 2027

 

How have they got the money to do that though? Should be investigated. 

[Collage]

22 minutes ago, Decky said:

Bonucci  

I know it’s definitely lazy journalism but I’d love that.

 

 

 

I wouldn’t. Past it, inconsistent and I’ve never liked him.

[PauloGeordio]

 

[gbandit]

Isn’t he a massive racist?

[McCormick]

Not sure sitting on the bench for year constitutes an “adventure.”

[Toonjam88]

3 hours ago, St1pe said:

Can’t get my head around buying Gordon for £40m, potentially selling ASM then to bringing in Harvey Barnes. Seems like a backwards step. 
 

Give ASM another season as Gordon as understudy. We have Joelinton that’s arguably been better than both of them in that LW position too then use the money on someone top quality to play RW. 

So if that does happen and not saying it will are we questioning the first manager to get us back into the Champions Leagues decisions? Just wondered if we have already started going back to how we were? 

[mighty__mag]

22 minutes ago, gbandit said:

Isn’t he a massive racist?

 

Dunno, what's he done racist or in your words massive racist?

 

People get called racist these days for disagreeing with Eni Aluko.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by mighty__mag

[gbandit]

https://amp.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/03/raheem-sterling-leads-criticism-after-bonucci-says-kean-50-50-to-blame-for-racist-abuse

[Gawalls]

6 minutes ago, gbandit said:

https://amp.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/03/raheem-sterling-leads-criticism-after-bonucci-says-kean-50-50-to-blame-for-racist-abuse

Yeah reading that article - bonucci didn’t cover himself in glory there did he. 

[McCormick]

32 minutes ago, Collage said:

I wouldn’t. Past it, inconsistent and I’ve never liked him.

I have a theory that he’s actually never been that good. Always surrounded by some of the best defenders in the world.

[LFEE]

3 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

I mean.... Arsenal have done at least 80% of their incoming business already. They did the same last year.  Liverpool similar. 

 

Finishing CL was a surprise for us. And we have sticky FFP issues short and long-term. So it's understandable that our transfers take a little longer. But make no question about it; it's not intentional in a positive way.

They can do their business early as they are higher in the pecking order than us. They also pay far bigger wages than us. Once the biggest payers have their top targets others fall into place for the likes of us. Yes there will be an odd exception but for example Rice would never come to us as much as EH would love him until Man City said no, then Arsenal, then Chelsea, then Liverpool, then Spurs. Even Villa could’ve arguably snare him ahead of us. So for argument sake if he was on all their lists and eventually they went for targets elsewhere in that position as the window progresses he’d fall in our lap near the end of the window.

 

So in short we are in that awkward position of having a smaller pool of players we are interested in that we think will improve us and fit into our group ethos and wage structure. All these are susceptible to being enticed elsewhere for bigger wages as competing teams will also fancy them too. It’s only when those doors close that they open for us.
 

In a few years time when we can/are paying around the £200-50kpw mark we might be able to move/entice quicker. I’d say we are at least 3 seasons away from that though. 

[TRon]

34 minutes ago, McCormick said:

Not sure sitting on the bench for year constitutes an “adventure.”

 

Not sure the story should be taken seriously to start with so I'm not going to worry about such other baggage such as being an old cunt, massive racist etc.

[toontownman]

37 minutes ago, gbandit said:

Isn’t he a massive racist?

Well Nmecha didn't work out. We had to move on to a different prejudice.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by toontownman

[gjohnson]

City supposedly after Botman...£86m

 

 

[Rich]

[TRon]

Just now, gjohnson said:

City supposedly after Botman...£86m

 

 

 

We won't take a penny less than £87m.

[andycap]

1 hour ago, Nucasol said:

Basically would be Maxi out -> Diaby in at that price and use someone already on the books to cover the LHS.

Diaby plays right wing so might aswell keep maxi. Maybe get rid of our dead wood. 

[toontownman]

1 minute ago, gjohnson said:

City supposedly after Botman...£86m

 

 

Clearly Mehrdad's F1 tweet has tipped him over the edge and he wants out.

[Toon88]

2 minutes ago, gjohnson said:

City supposedly after Botman...£86m

 

 

Again, nonsense. They want Gvardiol and a deal pretty much done. 

[Manxst]

1 minute ago, gjohnson said:

City supposedly after Botman...£86m

 

 

Enquired about him before going for Gvardiol and were told ‘no’. Nothing more than that, I think. 

[The Prophet]

https://www.threads.net/t/CuXAUPLon4B

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by The Prophet

[kocunar]

OK, here we go, an attempt to find out and explain FFP constraints that we face this year and in the future. 
It will be written in 2 parts, this being part 1 where I explain FFP and salary cap in general, before going over our numbers in part 2.

 

There are 2 mechanisms deployed for controlling football spending. First one is FFP, second one that comes into effect next year is a salary cap.

Salary cap is much simpler than FFP, it simply puts a cap on the ratio between wages of your staff and your total revenues. 
For next season, that ratio is 90%, season after 80% and season after that it will be 70% and it will stay at that level. 
This might seem concerning because our wages/revenue ratio in season 2021/22 was 95%. However that ratio is projected to have been 78% this season (2022/23) and thanks to UCL next season is projected to be around 68% (that will obviously depend on who we sign this summer as well).
All in all, this constraint might be relevant if in the season where it reaches 70% we don't reach UCL or any European football, but we shouldn't worry about it for now.

More complex one is the FFP. 
FFP states that your total losses in a 3 year window cannot be more £15m in total, increased to £105m if the extra £90m are covered by the owner. (In our case, we can definitely count on that)
Any money spent on infrastructure, women's teams, youth teams and training facilities is exempt from being counted into FFP. 

A method that teams employ to limit the impact FFP has on their transfers is to spread the cost of the transfer over the duration of the original contract. (also called amortisation)
For example, if a player was signed for £50m on a 5 year contract, instead of counting the whole £50m in the year he was signed, teams will spread those £50m over 5 years so that in each of the next 5 years, cost of that transfer will be £10m.
This is the way Chelsea managed to sign whole host of players, by signing them to 8 year contracts and spreading it over that length of time. This is of course risky, as they will count towards your expenses for the next 8 years if you don't sell them in the meantime. 
It has also been limited by UEFA in the meantime  as they have set the maximum amortisation time to 5 years, no matter the contract length.

If a player is sold during the time his amortisation is still being counted, he will impact that year's costs based on the total amount of amortisation he has left.
For instance, if a player was bought for £50m on a 5 year contract and then after 2 years he was sold for £40m, he would have counted as a £10m cost during the first 2 years and then as a £10m profit in the third year. (£40m income for sale minus the £30m of amortisation that was left after 2 years)
This is the famous plusvalenza, which Juventus (and other clubs in smaller ways) used to cheat with, by trading players in the last years of their amortisation for inflated values to help balance their books for that year.
Also keep in mind amortisation deals with player transfers only, player salaries are counted normally on a year by year basis.

That's it for the first part, now comes the second part with specific NUFC numbers.

[kocunar]

OK, here we go, an attempt to find out and explain FFP constraints that we face this year and in the future. 
It will be written in 2 parts, this being part 2 where I go over our financial numbers for past and upcoming seasons.

 

Keep in mind that a lot of the numbers in this post will be estimates. 
However, you will see by the end that even with estimates, the money we can spend this year isn't really limited by FFP but rather how aggressive we want to be this year and how much we want to limit ourselves in the future.

 

As was outlined in part 1, the maximum loss we can sustain in a 3 year period is £105m. 
In season 2021/22 we had a total revenue of £180m. Match income accounts for £27.3m, broadcast revenue £124.1m, commercial revenue £26.5m and other sources £1.8m. We also made a profit of £5.8m on disposal of player registrations.
When it comes to losses, total amortisation was £49.7m (increased a lot by January signings compared to year before) and staff wages were £170.2m. 
In the end, for FFP calculations we were in a total loss of around £-35.7m for the whole year.

For season 2022/23 we had a projected revenue of ~£231.4m. Projections for match income are around ~£30m (based on few extra cup games and increased ticket prices). Broadcast income was around £163.4m, due to new and more lucrative EPL TV deals, better standings position and more televised games.
Commercial revenue is projected to have been around ~£35m, thanks to noon sleeve sponsorship and a couple of new commercial partners. With other source of revenue at around £3m, total revenue is projected to be around ~£231.4m. We also made a profit of around £13m in player sales.
As for losses, total amortisation was ~£80m due to only Dubravka amortisation of £1m expiring and all of summer and winter signings adding to amortisation costs. Wages have increased somewhere close to ~£180m. 
All in all, for FFP calculations, the total loss was around £-15.7m.

 

Which leaves us the next year with UCL play and new shirt sponsor. Our spend for next year would be allowed up to £54m in losses. 
Let's first go over our minimum revenues which I hope is how our management is calculating future guaranteed revenues. We don't want to put ourselves in a Chelsea or Everton situation.
We will do that by calculating REASONABLE worst case scenario. Obviously there exists a scenario where we get relegated, but even in bookmakers the odds for that right now are 500/1. 
So, we will choose a scenario where we end last place in UCL with 4 points in group stage and where we finish 10th in EPL. Obviously, we would hope for better results, but we should be prepared for anything.

In that case, our revenues for next year would look something like this: match income at ~£40m (slight increase in ticket prices and extra UCL games), £150.4m in broadcast revenue (10th place in EPL) and commercial revenue around £55m (Sela deal bringing an extra £18.5m). 
UCL revenue would be around £30m (would be a lot higher but our UEFA coefficient is very low, hopefully something we improve this year). It can also go a lot higher with a deep run, but we calculate worst case scenario here. With other revenues at around £3m, total revenue would be around £280m. For reference, in season 2021/22 that would have put us in 14th place in the world, right above Inter Milan.
Also, sale of Chris Wood for £15m counts towards this year.
When it comes to costs, total amortisation costs increase to ~£90m. That is because only Murphy's and Krafth's amortisation cost expires, while quite a bit is added by (primarily) Tonali and Minteh. Also, total wages increase to ~£190m. 
All together, the profit for this year so far is ~£15m, even when including Tonali and Minteh transfers. Given that we can afford a loss of ~£54m, we still have ~£69m to spend. 

Those £69m do not mean we that can only spend £69m on transfer fees. Because of amortisation we could theoretically buy two players for £10m salary and £120m transfer fee each. That transfer fee would count as only £24m for this year per player.
However, that would be very unwise thing to do, as it is very much not a guarantee that we will manage to qualify for UCL next year which those transfers would require. Basically, UCL money gives us extra non-guaranteed money this year. Pushing FFP to the limit this year would require us to qualify for UCL every year for next few years in order to avoid selling any key players.
That is also the reason Howe said that Sela sponsorship doesn't improve our budget this year. It will be very helpful in the future, but for this year, after qualifying for UCL, we weren't going to push the FFP to its limit anyway.

 

So, how much will we spend this year? Hard to answer. It all depends on how aggressive we want to be. Similar to last year, if an opportunity like Isak opens up, we can take it, but otherwise I would expect a slow summer. Probably around £25m in wages + amortisation. One version of that is 2 rotation level players with a combined transfer fee of £75m.

 

Oh and also, a revelation in all of this. We don't have to sell anyone. We might if we get a really good offer that we thinks will only come once, but when it comes to FFP: we don't have to sell anyone.