Relegationometer

[toon25]

Need a miracle

[xLiaaamx]

We're now going to have to win a game we're given pretty much no chance in. One more in addition to Norwich and Burnley at home which are absolutely must wins before January and we'll probably still have a chance. We really could do with Arsenal having one of those days to be honest. 

 

 

Edited November 20, 2021 by xLiaaamx

[Fantail Breeze]

Just now, SUPERTOON said:

No I’m not getting my knickers in a twist at all, everything single thing points to us being relegated despite and improved display going forward today. 

 

 So it’s 100% certain we’re relegated then? 
 

May as well not play anymore games. Supertoon has already confirmed our fate.

 

Do you not think we could achieve 7 points more than Brentford before the end of the season? They were a mess today and have been for weeks. What can they do to get out of it? 

 

Norwich, Brentford and one other will go. I’d expect that place to be between us, Southampton, Burnley, Leeds and Watford. 

 

I’d be very surprised if it’s us.

[Kaizero]

According to fivethirtyeight we're 63% likely to get relegated after today, so 6.3. 

[Dr Jinx]

It’s 5 points to get out of bottom 3, if we keep going in right direction we’ll be somewhere around middle of the bottom half of table by the time January comes along.

 

With a couple of good signings this team will suddenly look capable.

 

Every team with a solid defence and midfield will always be better going forward.

[Guest HTT II]

At least we will be entertaining as we go down, and next season in the Championship should be fun!

[Yorkie]

My gut instinct is we'll stay up. Feel like our situation is very different to other teams who didn't win their first 12 games/have been this far adrift at this stage. Those historic cases will probably be an indication of overall poor outfits who were truly destined for the drop. I don't think we're that by a long stretch; we've got loads of good players, a good manager and lots of money to spend in January. It's just that we started the season with a half-arsed Steve Bruce. 

 

[et tu brute]

5 minutes ago, Yorkie said:

It's really difficult to assess at this point. I think our team and manager is easily a lower mid-table side. But we've had such a terrible start and have horrible fixtures to come. 

 

I think it's very important we equalised today, for more than just cos it meant we got a point. It'll be huge from a mentality/confidence point of view. 

That defence is Championship standard. I can’t believe the same players who fail game after game keep getting picked. Howe should change the who back line next week. Abysmal goalkeeping and defending. Pisses me right off that Darlow, Ritchie, Murphy, Lascelles and Clark keep getting a game. To be fair Shar wasn’t much better either. Ashley has really fucked us this time.

[ilikenewcastle]

9 for me. I think it's likely we'll be 10+ points adrift of safety unless Howe pulls off some miracles in December. Who will want to join in January if we're cut adrift? I expect us to improve but basically we have no room for error and we must beat Norwich and Burnley in the next couple of weeks.

[SUPERTOON]

1 minute ago, Fantail Breeze said:

 

 So it’s 100% certain we’re relegated then? 
 

May as well not play anymore games. Supertoon has already confirmed our fate.

 

Do you not think we could achieve 7 points more than Brentford before the end of the season? They were a mess today and have been for weeks. What can they do to get out of it? 

 

Norwich, Brentford and one other will go. I’d expect that place to be between us, Southampton, Burnley, Leeds and Watford. 

 

I’d be very surprised if it’s us.

I feel like I’m repeating myself here but we are sat bottom and haven’t won all season, it’s not getting your knickers in a twist by thinking we are going down. Also look at the goal difference because that’s another point we need on Brentford and the likes.

[wormy]

5

 

Madness to watch this 2 week transformation and effectively say nufc has zero chance of survival.

 

Too much of the season left. And a transfer window. And most importantly a trash goalkeeper to punt to the bench. 

[Yorkie]

Loads will change from this point too. For a start, the players will get fitter - they won't be totally goosed by the 75th minute resulting in gilt-edged chances being squandered/incidents where we're desperately chasing back to defend occurring later in the game. We'll have a better goalie returning. The players will get more and more used to the managers methods and ways of playing. And we'll spend in January. It still feels very much in our hands. 

[Fantail Breeze]

Just now, SUPERTOON said:

I feel like I’m repeating myself here but we are sat bottom and haven’t won all season, it’s not getting your knickers in a twist by thinking we are going down. Also look at the goal difference because that’s another point we need on Brentford and the likes.

 

Thinking we are going to go down is very different to saying it’s a 100% certainty.

 

We’re five points from safety ffs  That’s two wins. Even if Leeds beat Spurs tomorrow, it’s only three wins from safety.

 

We haven’t won all season, but as I said, we now have a manager capable of achieving wins. Look at the season of 26 games under Howe with a five point deficit to make up. It’s perfectly acceptable to expect us to be able to do that.

 

All of our next four games are winnable. Two wins from those four and the picture suddenly looks much rosier.

[Espio]

Of those clubs in the past, how many of those turned into the richest club in the world? We'll splash and strengthen in January but currently we're only 2 wins away from being outside of the bottom 3. We're in a prime position to improve, we were at rock bottom and the only way from there is up.

[SUPERTOON]

Burnley and Norwich will see our games as winnable as we all see it as well. We are absolutely hopeless at the back, I wouldn’t back us confidently to beat any team currently.

[Nobody]

4. We'll be fine. 

[SUPERTOON]

2 minutes ago, Fantail Breeze said:

 

Thinking we are going to go down is very different to saying it’s a 100% certainty.

 

We’re five points from safety ffs  That’s two wins. Even if Leeds beat Spurs tomorrow, it’s only three wins from safety.

 

We haven’t won all season, but as I said, we now have a manager capable of achieving wins. Look at the season of 26 games under Howe with a five point deficit to make up. It’s perfectly acceptable to expect us to be able to do that.

 

All of our next four games are winnable. Two wins from those four and the picture suddenly looks much rosier.

Yeah but we have to go out and win 2 of those games, saying it and doing it are 2 vastly different things. The run we are on will be playing on everyone’s minds at the club.

[Kid Icarus]

I'd be much more confident if there were any other really shit teams about, but it seems that they've all gone now. Add that to the fact we'd be the first ever club to do it, it's probably a 7 for me now

 

 

Edited November 20, 2021 by kisearch

[Happinesstan]

15 minutes ago, samptime29 said:

Going to be tough. If don't get to 15 points after 19 games then we are down imo. We just absolutely have to beat Norwich and Burnley at home.

Think we'll get 13. Then 8 wins in the second half of the season and we'll be close.

[pedro111]

Seems like both Norwich and Villa won against the run of play.

[Abacus]

The general view before this was that we'd need at least 7 points from our next 3 home games. We can still do that.

 

Even if you'd just swapped Darlow for Dubravka today, which will surely happen by the next home match, I think you'd be looking at a whole different result.

 

I also don't think it's right to assume we'll get nothing at all against any of the bigger teams - other teams do and at least now we won't be going in with the same defeatist attitude.

 

Some promising signs, some old problems. Will it be too little, too late? Maybe - overall, I'm up to a 6.

[Wandy]

Was at an 8 before today and yet now think we are at a 7 after that. Forget the league table, the performance was what mattered. But we are going to need to get points in unexpected places over the next 8 weeks, I think.

[Fantail Breeze]

Just now, SUPERTOON said:

Yeah but we have to go out and win 2 of those games, saying it and doing it are 2 vastly different things. The run we are on will be playing on everyone’s minds at the club.

 

Leicester got pumped 3-0 today without touching the ball after a similar performance against Arsenal.

 

Just before our match they have a crucial Europa tie away at Napoli.

 

Burnley have won one match all season, Norwich too.

 

What is their mindsets going to be going into our games?

 

 

[xLiaaamx]

If we get a lucky break somewhere it could turn completely. We've had no real lucky moments so far this year. 

[SUPERTOON]

Just now, Fantail Breeze said:

 

Leicester got pumped 3-0 today without touching the ball after a similar performance against Arsenal.

 

Just before our match they have a crucial Europa tie away at Napoli.

 

Burnley have won one match all season, Norwich too.

 

What is their mindsets going to be going into our games?

 

 

Norwich have won twice btw, and it may seem like I’m being overly negative, I’m actually on the what me feeling positive about our long term future, I just can’t see these players(defenders) getting us out of the position we are in.