Relegationometer

[morpeth mag]

On the betting exchanges we are third favourites to be relegated behind Norwich and Watford with about 40pc chance of going down. Seems about right.

[McCormick]

1 hour ago, Raconteur said:

Yep, only because voting 0 is stupid and I’m not going to do fractions.

 

There’s no chance a decent manager with the promise of spending in January gets this team relegated.

 

Howe will impose a game plan, give players instructions and motivate them over the next two weeks. We’ll see them run through walls against Brentford, at which point we’re two points from safety.

There’s no chance? Sorry but that’s bordering on delusional.

[Geordie_once_removed]

I put a 6. 

 

Yesterday's draw, while disappointing due to the foul on Wilson at the end, is a huge result for us.  It allows the new manager to make a few really needed changes (Clarke, Darlow and Ritchie out Dubravka, Schar/Fernades and Lewis in) but doesn't damage our mindset too much.  I can see a win against Brentford and a few unexpected points in that nasty looking December.  Add a centre back, a midfielder and a striker in January and we'll hopefully be ok.

[Barnes23]

5 is about right. There's a long way to go yet. 

[RodneyCisse]

33 minutes ago, Geordie_once_removed said:

I put a 6. 

 

Yesterday's draw, while disappointing due to the foul on Wilson at the end, is a huge result for us.  It allows the new manager to make a few really needed changes (Clarke, Darlow and Ritchie out Dubravka, Schar/Fernades and Lewis in) but doesn't damage our mindset too much.  I can see a win against Brentford and a few unexpected points in that nasty looking December.  Add a centre back, a midfielder and a striker in January and we'll hopefully be ok.

Brentford are starting to get found out, few injuries aren’t helping them either.

[Abacus]

Under Bruce, I'd have said it was all but nailed on. A 9.

 

It's odd how having been through two relegations, the number of chances you have to get out of it, and yet how it almost seems impossible to turn things around and actually take them.

 

But once all the pieces fall into place it just starts to feel inevitable. Those pieces are; a few key injuries, players who look disorganised, unfit, disinterested, understandable negativity / fear coming down from the stands. A manager losing the dressing room, or elements of it, and who looks lost on the touchline, an owner who either doesn't care or understand enough to act.

 

It had all those elements under Bruce.

 

But with the takeover, owner, hopefully new manager and fan positivity are all fixed for now. And unlike in Benitez's case, this time with enough time to fix a lot of what's happening on the pitch with the players.

 

At the moment, I'm down to a 4, and that will drop much further if we do eke out a couple of wins from the next little run of games.

[Espio]

I just can't see relegation, one of the best English managers around, and a January transfer window with our spending power, we should get out of this. Obviously never say never but under Ashley and Bruce I'd have said it's inevitable, but now, I'd say it's highly unlikely.

[PlymouthGeordie]

I think it is a huge task to stay up and there is no doubting the next 3 home games are pivotal.

 

In that time, Watford have the following fixtures:

 

Man Utd (h)

Leicester (a)

Chelsea (h)

Man City (h)

 

If we get 7 points for our 3 home games and Arsenal away I'd fancy our chances of being 2 points ahead of them before our horrible December run.

 

Leeds have the following December fixtures:

 

Brentford (h)

Chelsea (a)

Man City (a)

Arsenal (h)

Liverpool (a)

 

Burnley have a horrible January.

 

As I'm typing this it's fair to say nothing is decided in November. We need to drag ourselves back amongst it with our 3 winnable home games and if we get to January less than 6 points from safety I fancy us.

[SUPERTOON]

There are no unwinnable games under a manager that sets the team up right and picks his best players. The key one is the first win, get that against Brentford and we will take off I think.

[Miggys First Goal]

We’re going to survive relegation!

 

 

[Fantail Breeze]

Brentford finishing 4th sort of makes me slightly suspect about the computer being super.

[WarrenBartonCentrePartin]

4 minutes ago, Fantail Breeze said:

Brentford finishing 4th sort of makes me slightly suspect about the computer being super.

“Thuv not gorra sewpa dewpa compewter… we ‘av!”

 

[samptime29]

The next 3 home games are vital. We have to win at least 2 of them or we are fucked. We strengthen in January and a lot will depend on our home form Jan to April: Watford, Everton, Villa, Brighton, Palace, Wolves, Leicester. 

[et tu brute]

2 hours ago, Miggys First Goal said:

We’re going to survive relegation!

 

 

 

Southampton only getting 7 points from the next 27 games, aye that will be right

[relámpago blanco]

Us staying up on 29 points

[Fantail Breeze]

54 minutes ago, et tu brute said:

 

Southampton only getting 7 points from the next 27 games, aye that will be right

 

The poor fuckers aren’t going to win any games this season, despite already winning three.  

[Raconteur]

8 hours ago, McCormick said:

There’s no chance? Sorry but that’s bordering on delusional.

I said no chance a decent manager who spends in January takes us down.

 

Howe is a decent manager. Signings in January are inevitable. We’re not going down.

 

Mind, I feel the same way about people voting anything above a 5. Difference is that I’m perfectly relaxed.

[Elliottman]

If there’s 2 points in it aftwr the next round of fixtures , Howe in place, I’ll feel a lot more confident 

[Superior Acuña]

We need to be going into January in touching distance of safety. We can still be in the relegation zone then, but we can't be cut adrift to the point where potential players see it as an unlikely task.

[Paullow]

I'd say 7.

 

Looking at the table, and the teams, I can't really imagine anyone outside of Norwich, Newcastle, Burnley, Watford, and Brentford being involved. Obviously it's still early days, and a team can get sucked in, and maybe someone like Villa will, given their current run, but there doesn't seem to be too much margin, and Burnley and Dyche will usually find a way.

 

One thing I was surprised about were some pundits saying bad for Newcastle that Norwich beat Brentford. I know we were temporarily bottom because of it, but I was fully wanting Norwich to beat them when following on Soccer Saturday. Newly promoted side (Brentford), on a bit of a losing streak, and we play them at home next, definitely the best result that Norwich beat them IMO.

[geordiesteve710]

Gone from a 9 to a 7.

 

Was encouraged by most of the last half hour on Saturday, and it's useful that Howe will get the best part of two weeks with most of the squad.

 

Clearly the next 3 home fixtures are key.

[Rich]

Where are people at after today, then?

 

It’s a 4 for me.

[et tu brute]

11 minutes ago, Rich said:

Where are people at after today, then?

 

It’s a 4 for me.

At moment still an 8 for me. Let’s see though,  where we are come January. 

[Rich]

Closer to no hope than can’t call it. I will never understand people

[et tu brute]

3 minutes ago, Rich said:

Closer to no hope than can’t call it. I will never understand people

I don’t think Howe is the right choice and I’ve said that numerous times this last week, so I’m not suddenly going to change my mind on that front. I’ve also said I would love nothing more than him to prove me wrong and that he will get my 100% support.