The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[Geordie Ahmed]

18 minutes ago, samptime29 said:

I said last week. We have to win our 2 home games coming up. If we don't, we are down imo. 

I think 4 points is the minimum needed, get 4 and I think we are still in with a chance

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Don’t see anything changing with today’s results.

 

anything at Arsenal would have been a bonus and Leeds getting a point rather than 3 is ok.

 

we can be in touching distance of 4th bottom by next weekend if things play out right. If we’re not then my 5 will move to a 7

[nufc4eva]

Brentford and Watford have a couple of tough games. 2 wins could see us 1 point off both. Leeds play Brentford next Sunday and Watford have Man City and Chelsea next

[Karjala]

Pretty much everyone has been in agreement since Howe came in that 7 points was the minimum requirement out of Brentford, Norwich and Burnley matches. Now all of a sudden people are saying 4pts from the next 2 would be alright.

 

Anything less than 6 and we can forget it IMO.

[Conjo]

It depends on what points Norwich, Burnley, Leeds, Watford & Brentford picks up in the same games so it's impossible to say whether 3, 4 or 6 points is the minimum. We're 6 points away from safety, hardly a mountain to climb. As long as we gain on 17th place I'm feeling fairly confident we can turn it around second half of the season.

[HaydnNUFC]

Games until January.

 

Spoiler

 

Newcastle

Norwich (h)

Burnley (h)

Leicester (a)

Liverpool (a)

Man City (h)

Man Utd (h)

Everton (a)

Southampton (a)

 

Norwich

Newcastle (a)

Spurs (a)

Man Utd (h)

Aston Villa (h)

West Ham (a)
Arsenal (h)

Palace (a)

Leicester (a)

 

Burnley

Spurs (h)

Newcastle (a)

West Ham (h)

Watford (h)

Aston Villa (a)

Everton (h)

Man Utd (a)

Leeds (a)

 

Leeds

Palace (h)

Brentford (h)

Chelsea (a)

Man City (a)

Arsenal (h)

Liverpool (a)

Aston Villa (h)

Burnley (h)

 

Watford

Leicester (a)

Chelsea (h)

Man City (h)

Brentford (a)

Burnley (a)

Palace (h)

Wolves (a)

West Ham (h)

Spurs (h)

 

Brentford

Everton (h)

Spurs (a)

Leeds (a)

Watford (h)

Man Utd (h)

Southampton (a)

Brighton (a)

Man City (h)

Aston Villa (h)

 

 

Can't see Brentford getting dragged too far into the shit given those fixtures. This 3 fixture window coming up for us is huge, Norwich, Burnley, Leicester. We can make ground up on Watford, Burnley and Norwich if we pick up at the very least 7 points. 9 would be superb and doable. It's also worth mentioning that our 3 games in January are Southampton (a), Watford (h) and Leeds (a).

[Geordie Ahmed]

5 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

Games until January.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Newcastle

Norwich (h)

Burnley (h)

Leicester (a)

Liverpool (a)

Man City (h)

Man Utd (h)

Everton (a)

Southampton (a)

 

Norwich

Newcastle (a)

Spurs (a)

Man Utd (h)

Aston Villa (h)

West Ham (a)
Arsenal (h)

Palace (a)

Leicester (a)

 

Burnley

Spurs (h)

Newcastle (a)

West Ham (h)

Watford (h)

Aston Villa (a)

Everton (h)

Man Utd (a)

Leeds (a)

 

Leeds

Palace (h)

Brentford (h)

Chelsea (a)

Man City (a)

Arsenal (h)

Liverpool (a)

Aston Villa (h)

Burnley (h)

 

Watford

Leicester (a)

Chelsea (h)

Man City (h)

Brentford (a)

Burnley (a)

Palace (h)

Wolves (a)

West Ham (h)

Spurs (h)

 

Brentford

Everton (h)

Spurs (a)

Leeds (a)

Watford (h)

Man Utd (h)

Southampton (a)

Brighton (a)

Man City (h)

Aston Villa (h)

 

 

Can't see Brentford getting dragged too far into the shit given those fixtures. This 3 fixture window coming up for us is huge, Norwich, Burnley, Leicester. We can make ground up on Watford, Burnley and Norwich if we pick up at the very least 7 points. 9 would be superb and doable. It's also worth mentioning that our 3 games in January are Southampton (a), Watford (h) and Leeds (a).

Southampton is very early in the window but we need to try and get signings done before that Watford game, if we leave it too late then we are potentially throwing away winnable fixtures with a few additions

[Superior Acuña]

I don't think winning our next two homes games just makes us 'able' to stay up (i.e. make us a 9 or so), I think it'd probably actually make us likely, it'll totally change the mood and prospects of what's possible.

 

I think we need to win at least one for a little bit of hope, 4 points for a bit more, 6 points I'd be optimistic. 2 points and the situation would be desperate and we'd be very heavily reliant on how Jan signings and picking up form within that month. 1 or less and it'd be hard to have any hope at all.

 

We need a win to show we can win and get a boost, keep the gap getting too big. In terms of points adrift, staying at 6 or so for a couple of months doesn't doom us (though obviously not great!). E.g. Fulham were 6 points adrift with less than half the amount of games left, and no transfer window, and stayed up.

 

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by Inferior Acuña

[Amir_9]

Our survival will rely on if we can fix the leaky turbocrap defence and Watford, Leeds and Brentford going to shit. Leeds is the big one especially. 

 

Relegation threat feels bigger this year, this is a horrendous start. 

 

I'm currently at an 8, if we don't win our next two games then 9.

 

 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Worrying thing is there aren’t any really bad teams this season. Norwich could have scored 3 or 4 today if Pukki had the right boots on. 

[Superior Acuña]

16 minutes ago, Amir_9 said:

Our survival will rely on if we can fix the leaky turbocrap defence and Watford, Leeds and Brentford going to shit. Leeds is the big one especially. 

 

Relegation threat feels bigger this year, this is a horrendous start. 

 

I'm currently at an 8, if we don't win our next two games then 9.

 

 

 

I'm banking on Brentford being our hope. Feel like I've seen too much quality from Leeds over last season or so, and Watford under Ranieri, to see them going down. Brentford seem a bit of a classic promoted, great start, get figured out, fall away team that hopefully we can hunt down over time.

[Thiago]

I think Ashley has conditioned me to expect it. Wish I could have a greater sense of hope.

[Stottie]

I'm still on six. Dubs is back in and I think if you are offered 0-1 and Callum Wilson fouled from behind in the box after 70 minutes, you'd take that pre-game. The final result and media love-ins for Arsenal do not change that. A three game ban for violent conduct againt Lascelles would probably have helped, but we didn't get that break either.

 

We're still bottom and desparate for points, but there is still time and opportunities to turn it around. It's going to take a lot of work, some of it by the consortium to get someone competent in to sign the players we definitely need. With the squad we have now, we are definitely going down.

[Ketsbaia]

4 points are a must from Norwich + Burnley but I'm chilled with this relegation compared to the last two - we've got rid of Bruce, we've got rid of Ashley. In 5 years time we'll be in a better position than what it'd be like under those twats.

[Superior Acuña]

21 minutes ago, Ketsbaia said:

4 points are a must from Norwich + Burnley but I'm chilled with this relegation compared to the last two - we've got rid of Bruce, we've got rid of Ashley. In 5 years time we'll be in a better position than what it'd be like under those twats.

 

I see what you mean, but I'm much less chilled than the second one and recent seasons cos there was part of me last time, and other recent seasons where we've flirted with it, that I half wanted it, to see it burn under Ashley. (though I did care the last games under Rafa when it happened). I was apathetic and now I want us to succeed again. Having said that, I'll look forward to next season more regardless of division, thanks to loss of Ashley.

[GWN]

I think the frustration among us is that only 10 games had gone and we were looking forward to change but then realised it can’t happen until it’s too late .

 

This squad is shite , it will go down as we predicted, we quite easily could not win a game all season , Jesus Christ . 
 

We've made ourselves look a bit silly , rejoicing and the being relegated, many will be laughing their tits off at us around the country and close by . However look into the future, a better one , a one where we can build and comeback strong .There’s no guarantee of it mind , I’m absolutely frustrated to fuck that only NUFC could get these owners and go down , which we will, and I think that’s what’s killing a lot of our fan base . Hold ya nerve and think of the long term now . Then the PL will be fucking laughing no more when we are REALLY back .

 

Time gentlemen, be patient because we are going to have to be ok  

 

*I know we aren’t down I’m just being realistic 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by GWN

[Darth Crooks]

If we go down Ashley will have had his hat trick of relegations and that’s his ultimate legacy however he cares to spin it.

[black_n_white]

Could be a case of one step back two steps forward.

[Raconteur]

8 hours ago, Inferior Acuña said:

I don't think winning our next two homes games just makes us 'able' to stay up (i.e. make us a 9 or so), I think it'd probably actually make us likely, it'll totally change the mood and prospects of what's possible.

 

I think we need to win at least one for a little bit of hope, 4 points for a bit more, 6 points I'd be optimistic. 2 points and the situation would be desperate and we'd be very heavily reliant on how Jan signings and picking up form within that month. 1 or less and it'd be hard to have any hope at all.

 

We need a win to show we can win and get a boost, keep the gap getting too big. In terms of points adrift, staying at 6 or so for a couple of months doesn't doom us (though obviously not great!). E.g. Fulham were 6 points adrift with less than half the amount of games left, and no transfer window, and stayed up.

 

 

 

 

Yep - the old manager's cliche of "one game at a time" is true. We're 6 points from safety, sure, our next game is against Norwich and 3 points is very important, but by no means is it a "must win".

 

But if we do win - and Eddie will hopefully have them running through walls for this one - then the jinx is broken, some confidence is restored and we rid ourselves of the "bottom of the league" title.

 

Full of beans to face Burnley. Win there, we (likely) leapfrog them too, and safety is within touching distance. Two wins on the bounce, and suddenly a creaky Leicester away is a match we could get a result from.

 

There's a clear pathway to safety - potentially even before the transfer window opens

[sh74]

Think we need 4 or 5 quality loan signings. 2 centre backs. Left back . Defensive midfielder and a striker. 

[Guest neesy111]

13 hours ago, black_n_white said:

I very much doubt this team have two wins on a bounce in them on current form. 15 points at a minimum is needed before the new year. 9 points from next 8.

 

 

 

 

1 win is all it takes to get confidence back.  We've seen it before plenty of times.

[Fantail Breeze]

10 hours ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Worrying thing is there aren’t any really bad teams this season. Norwich could have scored 3 or 4 today if Pukki had the right boots on. 

 

Which will be their downfall.

 

Pukki could have scored 3 or 4 every game. He doesn’t. Norwich’s goalscorer isn’t anywhere near as good as ours.

[Paully]

It’ll be the most NUFC thing ever to go down during the same season when we became the wealthiest club in the world!

 

The whole country will laugh their balls off especially those lot down the road!

 

[Thumbheed]

I think we're getting caught up in trying to frame a desperately dire situation into a slightly more optimistic one by saying the next 2 games are critical, when in actual fact every game upto the window opening is especially  critical. 

 

At this point in time it's not unrealistic to say 6 points from the next 6 games is a best case scenario for us. 

 

 

 

[Geordie Ahmed]

12 minutes ago, Thumbheed said:

I think we're getting caught up in trying to frame a desperately dire situation into a slightly more optimistic one by saying the next 2 games are critical, when in actual fact every game upto the window opening is especially  critical. 

 

At this point in time it's not unrealistic to say 6 points from the next 6 games is a best case scenario for us. 

 

 

 

I think it's because the next 2 are clubs near to us plus 6 points from those 2 should mean even if we get nowt from December, then come January we shouldn't be too far adrift