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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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27 minutes ago, nufcnick said:

The problem is there is always one of the bottom 3 that goes on a run at the end of the season, we are nowhere near safe yet, we need at least another 5/6 points 

 

I agree 35-36 to be sure, but I disagree one if the bottom three always goes on a run at the end of the season, just look at last year.

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22 minutes ago, Pata said:

Burnley, Watford and Everton all lost, why are people panicking ffs? 

Just think its the matter of the defeat that gets people mad

 

 

Edited by nufc123

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3 minutes ago, nufcnick said:

wins against villa, Southampton, Watford and Norwich and 2 draws against us and Everton


They’ve scored one goal in their last five games while conceding eleven. They still can’t score and are now leaking goals too.

 

 

Edited by Pata

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1 minute ago, The Prophet said:

Burnley are on 21 points. They'd need 14 points to hit 35, increasing their win count from 3 to 7 and their points count from 0.75 to 1.4 in the process. It'd going to take a monumental upturn in form.

They have the easiest run in to get to 35

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22 minutes ago, Pata said:

Burnley, Watford and Everton all lost, why are people panicking ffs? It's a better set of results than us getting a point and any of those teams winning yet people would probably be happier if that happened.

 

I could easily see 31 points being enough already and we aren't going to lose every remaining game.

I think we'll all feel a little tetchy until we are mathematically safe. Some more tetchy than others but I would say that nigh on most of us still can't settle. Defeats like today press hard on that unsettling nerve.

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3 minutes ago, nufcnick said:

They have the easiest run in to get to 35

 

It doesn't change the fact that they've taken 21 points from 28 games, having won only three of those. I don't see what's changed that means they'll suddenly turn that around.

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We were beyond shit before 2022 started and went on a massive run that pulled us out of the mess, so it’s a bit odd that people assume others can’t do it. For me we need at least one win or three draws in the next four games or it will be nail biting time again for the

final four games against top opposition and a (probable) relegation rival.

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16 minutes ago, Unbelievable said:

We were beyond shit before 2022 started and went on a massive run that pulled us out of the mess, so it’s a bit odd that people assume others can’t do it. For me we need at least one win or three draws in the next four games or it will be nail biting time again for the

final four games against top opposition and a (probable) relegation rival.

 

I just can't see a similar turnaround for Burnley or Watford at this point of the season. Watford haven't gained any kind of new manager bounce and they still can't defend even with Hodgson. Burnley aren't going to change their identity after all these years with Dyche and are a terrible team with terrible results (finally).

 

We got rid of Ashley and Bruce that completely rejuvenated the whole club and city. We got a good new manager and good signings in January. It's just simply too late for Burnley, Watford and Norwich to change things around like we did.

 

 

Edited by Pata

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20 minutes ago, Unbelievable said:

We were beyond shit before 2022 started and went on a massive run that pulled us out of the mess, so it’s a bit odd that people assume others can’t do it. For me we need at least one win or three draws in the next four games or it will be nail biting time again for the

final four games against top opposition and a (probable) relegation rival.

 

Because we appointed a new manager and bought five new players. Burnley haven't done either.

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That Everton loss was huge earlier. Now, the loser of Burnley vs Everton is likely gone and a draw screws them both over.

 

Still..... we really need that final win to come from this Wolves (H), Leicester (H), Palace (H), Norwich (a) run.

 

Currently at a 2.

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After the Burnley game Everton have a shocking run of fixtures. Brentford is the only team below 9th and Brentford and Leicester the only teams they have to face that are below 7th. Lose to Burnley and they are in deep shit

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16 minutes ago, Ketsbaia said:

That Everton loss was huge earlier. Now, the loser of Burnley vs Everton is likely gone and a draw screws them both over.

 

Still..... we really need that final win to come from this Wolves (H), Leicester (H), Palace (H), Norwich (a) run.

 

Currently at a 2.

 

Even if Everton lose on Wednesday I still think they'll be safe.

 

Burnley worry me, particularly with us playing them away on the last day. A Burnley win on Wednesday would throw relegation wide open again and bring us and Leeds back into it. If they win on Wednesday they'd only need to pick up 4 more points than us before they play us to potentially make that a relegation decider and they have a much easier set of fixtures on paper.

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Just now, gdm said:

After the Burnley game Everton have a shocking run of fixtures. Brentford is the only team below 9th and Brentford and Leicester the only teams they have to face that are below 7th. Lose to Burnley and they are in deep shit

 

Everton's fixtures are no more shocking than ours. I'd expect them to get something from Palace at home. a probably safe by then Brentford at home and two matches against a potentially on the beach Leicester.

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2 hours ago, nufcnick said:

I can see Burnley getting to 35 points, wins against villa, Southampton, Watford and Norwich and 2 draws against us and Everton 

 

 

 

No chance. They've won 3 all season.

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6 hours ago, Jackie Broon said:

 

Everton's fixtures are no more shocking than ours. I'd expect them to get something from Palace at home. a probably safe by then Brentford at home and two matches against a potentially on the beach Leicester.

yes but we have 6 more points on the board
 

Palace have battered Everton 4-1 & 3-1 this season dunno where the confidence they’ll get something against them comes from. Also they play Leicester the week after we play them so are they only going to the beach after our game? 

Mad how you are so confident Everton will pick up all these points but pessimistic we won’t pick up any :lol:

 

 

Edited by gdm

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9 hours ago, Jackie Broon said:

 

Everton's fixtures are no more shocking than ours. I'd expect them to get something from Palace at home. a probably safe by then Brentford at home and two matches against a potentially on the beach Leicester.

So by that logic we also get something from Palace and an on the beach Leicester?

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It looks like the soothsayers aren't out of bed yet, so the prophecies of doom and gloom haven't been posted.

 

All I'll say is that I'm still, and always have been in the 0,1,2 camp (more the 0 camp). 

 

Because as I see it, with the run in that Watford have, they need to win and draw to get above Everton, then if they win - there is a gap of 6 points (2 wins) to get above Leeds - so myself i don't see that happening with the run ins that the two team have.

Also given the fact that the season will end on the last day, Everton will have to play a lot of games, against good teams in a short period of time.

 

Everton    - 10 to play  - bur MNU LEI liv CHE lei BRE ars  (wat CRY these two TBA)

Watford    - 8 to play    - LEE BRE mnc BUR cry LEI che     (EVE this one TBA)

 

BOLD at home.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, gdm said:

yes but we have 6 more points on the board
 

Palace have battered Everton 4-1 & 3-1 this season dunno where the confidence they’ll get something against them comes from. Also they play Leicester the week after we play them so are they only going to the beach after our game? 

Mad how you are so confident Everton will pick up all these points but pessimistic we won’t pick up any :lol:

 

 

 

 

Everton's biggest issues has been their away form, they've very capable of winning those home games.

 

Obviously the same goes for us and we're obviously in a better position, I'm just urging caution at those hoping Everton lose on Wednesday.

 

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21 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Are people really wanting Everton to lose on Wednesday? Makes no sense to me, Everton win and keep Burnley away from us.

 

My initial post was in reply to a couple of posts writing off Everton if they lose on Wednesday.

 

 

Edited by Jackie Broon

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