The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[Pata]

Have a chance to catch up Wolves now.

[The Prophet]

One bad result and the whiff of soiled bed sheets returns.

[Wandy]

Just now, Pata said:

 

40/60 going down/staying up?

 

40% chance of going down. We still look more likely to stay up but this week's results have put us back in the mix when we looked all but home and dry just a week ago.

[ponsaelius]

If you think there's a 40% chance of us going down then id strongly recommend putting money where your mouth is as you can still get 40/1 on us going down - which is very generous for a 40% chance.

[Ketsbaia]

Original thread name soon needed.

 

Been a horrific week of results for us. Really need to hurry up and get those 5 more points.

[Robster]

2 minutes ago, Wandy said:

 

40% chance of going down. We still look more likely to stay up but this week's results have put us back in the mix when we looked all but home and dry just a week ago.

We are still comfortably outside of the mix.

[Pokerprince2004]

9 points clear with a better goal difference and following fixtures still to play- 

 

Burnley v Everton 

Watford v Burnley 

Watford v Everton 

Watford v Brentford 

Watford v Leeds

Everton v Brentford 

Leeds v Brentford 

 

Gonna be lots of dropped points all over the shop. Watford got their 4 main rivals all at home 

[Kid Icarus]

If Burnley don't win their 2 games in hand, the bottom 3 is taking shape with clear gaps emerging

 

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Kid Icarus

[Wandy]

Burnley have to beat Everton on April 6th now, to be fair. If they dont then they will start to look properly doomed. I hate wanting the Scouse Mackems to win a game but yesterday and tonight has made it that way.

[Jaqen]

We are 9 points clear and have looked by far the best of the teams down there. 

 

 

 

[Geordie Ahmed]

In 2 weeks on the Saturday we have these fixtures

 

Liverpool v Watford

Burnley v Man City

 

Then before our game we have

 

West Ham v Everton

 

Hopefully all those go our way and it means the Spurs game is a bit of a free hit with less pressure 

 

Then on Wednesday you have Burnley v Everton, someone will drop points and then we have Wolves at home on Friday night, if we don't get anything at Spurs then it would be nice to beat Wolves to all but seal safety.

 

 

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Geordie Ahmed

[The Prophet]

Unless the wheels totally come off and we don't win another game all season, we're as safe as houses.

[Thiago]

Massive for Leeds that. I still don't see much quality in their side, but I've long thought that relegation battles are really just about which teams get the decisions over anything. 

 

As for the relegation battle, that game between Burnley and Everton is going to be huge. If Burnley lose I think it could destroy their confidence and send them down. If Everton lose you're looking at Watford and Brentford as the only real options to collect points. I wouldn't rule out Brentford having a tricky few weeks either. I could see them only being safe with results in the final two games of the season.

 

In short, our nine game run was monumental in the course of this season and we should not take it for granted.

[et tu brute]

24 minutes ago, Wandy said:

 

40% chance of going down. We still look more likely to stay up but this week's results have put us back in the mix when we looked all but home and dry just a week ago.

Not really back in the mix if Burnley win both their games in hand then yes, just can't see it though. We need 6 points to be certain, I actually think four will be enough and I wouldn't be surprised if we already have enough points 

[robbo_11]

I thought at the start of the week the bottom three would be as it currently is and I think those clubs will go down. Everton and then Leeds tonight will have given themselves some confidence over this international break. As always, anything could happen but it would be some run from one of the current bottom three to drag us into it and that also means us failing to pick up anymore points.

 

Watford - Liverpool (a), Leeds (h), Brentford (h), Man City (a) - 2 points

Norwich - Brighton (a), Burnley (h), Man United (h), Newcastle (h) - 1 point

Burnley - Man City (a), Everton (h), Norwich (a), West Ham (a), Southampton (h), Wolves (h) - 6 points

Leeds - Southampton (h), Watford (a), Chelsea (h), Crystal Palace (h) - 5 points

Everton - West Ham (a), Burnley (a), Man United (h), Leicester (h) - 2 points

Brentford - Leicester (a), Chelsea (a), West Ham (h), Watford (a), Tottenham (h) - 1 point

 

Newcastle - 39*

Leeds - 34

Brentford - 31

Everton - 27

Burnley - 27

Watford - 24

Norwich - 18

 

I think by the end of April we should have secured safety given the fixture run in. 

[Sima]

12 hours ago, WarrenBartonCentrePartin said:

 

I know our record there is dreadful, but given how dire they are and that we may have key players back, I'm treating it as a banker and essentially looking at us being on 34 points. Win it, and pick up another one - or three draws - elsewhere and we'll be good.

 

Like Southampton away, I see no reason why we shouldn't be looking to beat - and be capable of beating - Wolves, Leicester or Palace at home.

Nothing is a banker as far as NUFC is concerned.  Other than we’ll do things in the most stressful and difficult means possible.

 

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Sima

[Pata]

22 minutes ago, Sima said:

Nothing is a banker as far as NUFC is concerned.  Other than we’ll do things in the most stressful and difficult means possible.

 

 

 

 

Bills are over four times more likely to win the next Super Bowl than NUFC are to get relegated.

 

 

Edited March 19, 2022 by Pata

[Newintoon]

The last 5 seasons 35 points would have been enough to see u safe (looks like less than that this year) we need 4 points to reach that with 9 games to go, you think how pathetic we were under Bruce for the first 9 games, we still managed to get 4 points.

[Thiago]

We've got big chances at home with a bouncing SJP - we should be fine.

[Optimistic Nut]

We’d have taken 3 points from Southampton, Chelsea & Everton beforehand I think. Unlucky not to have had 5-7 really. We’ll definitely win at least 2 more.

[Guest HTT II]

We are very hard to beat right now, but worryingly don’t score too many goals. That kind of thing usually leads to the odd 1-0 win and a few draws which you hope will keep us up. I’m at a 5!

[astraguy]

Wilson's back in light training isn't he?

[Andy84]

The suggestion that we will finish in the bottom 3 defies any logic imo.  We’re just programmed to think the worst because of what has gone on in the last 15 years at this club.   We’re safe as houses 

 

 

Edited March 19, 2022 by Andy84

[Stifler]

I think it’s highly unlikely we’ll go down now, not a 0, but not a 1 either, probably a 0.5 at most.

It would pretty much mean that we would lose all of our remaining games, or win 1 and not draw any, something along those lines.

Ideally I want us to get to 37 points as soon as possible, but that is because I have been conditioned to think that 35-36 points is usually where you begin to be safe, although I soo think that it maybe lower this season.

 

The only team I can see getting out of the bottom 3 now is Watford, and that’s because of their fixtures, even then though Leeds, Everton, and Brentford have all gained points in the last week or so to still put some distance between them.

 

Some teams will be going on an early holiday soon, so games like Wolves and Palace maybe easier for us then they would have been earlier in the season.

We saw this work for us in Bruce’s 2 seasons with us, where we got points at the end of the season against teams who couldn’t care less.

We also have Norwich, who usually we can’t get the better of at their place, but even for them they have been weak this season and the only desire they seem to have within them, is to tell the EFL that they are coming back.

 

Yes the Everton result wasn’t ideal, now was Leeds winning last night, but to be honest we have been overdue a week where things don’t go all our way. The important thing is that in the games we have lost we have looked good. A couple of refereeing disgraces prevented us from getting a win or at least a point away against Chelsea, and one blip repented us winning against Everton in a game we dominated in. Keep up the performances, and we’ll have those points soon enough.

[WarrenBartonCentrePartin]

Said it before but will say it again. The main thing we've got is a squad who are committed, have bought into Howe's ideas and will fight in every game.

 

Look back at our previous two relegations - particularly the absolutely pathetic effort at Villa Park where a draw would've kept us up on GD - and it's completely different this time around.

 

Incidentally, 35 is what kept Hull up that season. Having looked back at pretty much every year since then, I'd say that's about the average needed for safety. The massive anomaly is Birmingham going down with 39 in 2010/11.