The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[PlymouthGeordie]

If I could pick one of the three teams to lose tonight it would be Burnley. If they win they'll have real momentum.

 

I've seen a lot of posts (not just on this forum) of "if we beat Brentford etc. etc." but Toney being back is a huge boost for them.

 

I think I'm just nervous about the Brentford game because it's so big and all the talk is about us winning an important game which I'm really not used to.

 

If we lose it, and results tonight and at the weekend go against us we're back in the bottom 3.

[sushimonster85]

2 minutes ago, PlymouthGeordie said:

If we lose it, and results tonight and at the weekend go against us we're back in the bottom 3.

 

This makes me nervous. I feel like, for as great as our current run has been, in terms of movement up table its only be worth a couple places. Saturday is a chance for that to change. If other results go our way (Leeds losing both their games & Everton losing) a win on Saturday could see us as high as 14th.  Just feel like we're overdue a lacklustre performance, and it's going to end up coming in a match where a positive result could actually see us put some daylight between ourselves and the relegation zone. 

[The Prophet]

7 minutes ago, sushimonster85 said:

 

This makes me nervous. I feel like, for as great as our current run has been, in terms of movement up table its only be worth a couple places. Saturday is a chance for that to change. If other results go our way (Leeds losing both their games & Everton losing) a win on Saturday could see us as high as 14th.  Just feel like we're overdue a lacklustre performance, and it's going to end up coming in a match where a positive result could actually see us put some daylight between ourselves and the relegation zone. 

 

The playing squad is average, so we're bound to pick up a poor result sooner or later. It's all about the response to that performance. Based on the mood in the camp, there's  nothing to suggest our heads would go down. We'll pick up enough results before the end of the season to see us safe.

[Geordie Ahmed]

Obviously all 3 losing would be perfect but I just can't see it

 

I think Watford will win, Burnley get at least a draw and Liverpool will beat Leeds

[Lush Vlad]

I think Watford will probably win. But I’m not sure Burnley are suddenly decent off the back of one good result. 
 

Spurs don’t look as good as previous recent seasons. But I still think they will have too much for Burnley. 

[Geordie Ahmed]

6 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:

I think Watford will probably win. But I’m not sure Burnley are suddenly decent off the back of one good result. 
 

Spurs don’t look as good as previous recent seasons. But I still think they will have too much for Burnley. 

It's not just one result, they lost by just 1 goal to Liverpool and drew with both Arsenal and Man-U

 

So them getting a draw/win against an out form Spurs* isn't inconceivable 

 

*I don't pay too much attention to thr City result, prior to that they lost 3 on the bounce. Plus the way they set up and hit on the counter fast works against City. Can't play like that against Burnley

[The Prophet]

It's mad that Palace have one once away all season and that was at City

 

[The Prophet]

7 minutes ago, Geordie Ahmed said:

It's not just one result, they lost by just 1 goal to Liverpool and drew with both Arsenal and Man-U

 

So them getting a draw/win against an out form Spurs* isn't inconceivable 

 

*I don't pay too much attention to thr City result, prior to that they lost 3 on the bounce. Plus the way they set up and hit on the counter fast works against City. Can't play like that against Burnley

 

If you're talking about Spurs form, why ignore their most recent result though? Overall since Conte came in they've W3-D2-L1 away from home. Plus they have Eric Dier back.

 

I can see Burnley grinding out a draw, but it's a really tough game for them, against a team who has every chance of finishing 4th.

[Lush Vlad]

20 minutes ago, Geordie Ahmed said:

It's not just one result, they lost by just 1 goal to Liverpool and drew with both Arsenal and Man-U

 

So them getting a draw/win against an out form Spurs* isn't inconceivable 

 

*I don't pay too much attention to thr City result, prior to that they lost 3 on the bounce. Plus the way they set up and hit on the counter fast works against City. Can't play like that against Burnley

 

But by and large, whenever Burnley play.  They look absolute shit, whilst hanging in and keeping it tight.  They never create much or see much of the ball.  Arsenal and Man U should have won those games and dominated for most of the game. 

 

I didn't mention Spurs' City result for that exact reason you mention.  But I think it is a bit more than that.  With the players that have returned from injury, got back up to speed and the two signings from Juve.  I think Spurs have too much for a shite Burnley side.  They are 8th and a good few games in hand on those above them.   

 

I'm certainly not one of those fans that seem to pay no attention to the results below us.  But if we are really worried about Burnley and what they are doing, then Lord help us. 

 

 

Edited February 23, 2022 by Lush Vlad

[Geordie Ahmed]

17 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:

 

But by and large, whenever Burnley play.  They look absolute shit, whilst hanging in and keeping it tight.  They never create much or see much of the ball.  Arsenal and Man U should have won those games and dominated for most of the game. 

 

I didn't mention Spurs' City result for that exact reason you mention.  But I think it is a bit more than that.  With the players that have returned from injury, got back up to speed and the two signings from Juve.  I think Spurs have too much for a shite Burnley side.  They are 8th and a good few games in hand on those above them.   

 

I'm certainly not one of those fans that seem to pay no attention to the results below us.  But if we are really worried about Burnley and what they are doing, then Lord help us. 

 

 

 

 

I certainly agree with the last part, whilst I do pay attention and want those results to go our way but ultimately it's pretty much in our own hands

 

I think the the games tonight and the weekend will start to give us a good idea as to which teams are really going to be involved to the very end

 

 

[Geordie Ahmed]

46 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

If you're talking about Spurs form, why ignore their most recent result though? Overall since Conte came in they've W3-D2-L1 away from home. Plus they have Eric Dier back.

 

I can see Burnley grinding out a draw, but it's a really tough game for them, against a team who has every chance of finishing 4th.

Because I see that result as an anomaly 

 

They have a decent record against City and I think they have the right players to play in a way that City can be hurt (Arguably Kane and Son are the best attacking pair on the counter attack)

 

I hope I'm wrong but I can see them dropping points to Burnley today 

[Ketsbaia]

Nervous about tonight. Surely Watford win this one? 

[The Prophet]

It's a tough game to call, Palace have been perverts for a draw of late.

[Joey47]

26 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

It's a tough game to call, Palace have been perverts for a draw of late.

 

Wouldn't a draw be good for us? Keeps Palace within distance and not too significant for Watford.

[Awaymag]

Im more focussed on getting safe as soon as possible.  So for me I want the bottom 3 to lose every time they play.    As soon as we are safe then we can all relax and then see where we can aim for in the table, in the remaining games.

[SUPERTOON]

I’d prefer a place win tbh, can’t see them going down at all.

[Dr Venkman]

Despite their second win of the season I’m sticking to my story. Burnley are shite, can’t score, and they’re going down. PFM bed wetters wind your necks in.

[sushimonster85]

8 minutes ago, Dr Venkman said:

Despite their second win of the season I’m sticking to my story. Burnley are shite, can’t score, and they’re going down. PFM bed wetters wind your necks in.

 

Totally agree. It bugs me when people go on about how Burnley always get themselves out of these situations. Surely them getting themselves into these situations so often says just as much, if not more, than their ability to escape them.

[Heron]

2 hours ago, sushimonster85 said:

 

This makes me nervous. I feel like, for as great as our current run has been, in terms of movement up table its only be worth a couple places. Saturday is a chance for that to change. If other results go our way (Leeds losing both their games & Everton losing) a win on Saturday could see us as high as 14th.  Just feel like we're overdue a lacklustre performance, and it's going to end up coming in a match where a positive result could actually see us put some daylight between ourselves and the relegation zone. 

Think we just have to be focused and not get carried away, we're in form but nothing about Howe suggests to me he's the type to lose sight or focus of the end task. He's measured and composed.

 

Burnley have 2 games in hand on us, but are 5 points behind. It is unlikely they'll win both to see themselves above us. Othet than them, there's only Everton and Leicester who have games in hand on us. We have the 3rd best form over the last 5 games and if you include Leicester in those 'reachable' teams then that's 10 teams, who realistically cannot all pick up points in the same gameweek.

 

It'll take another 10 games to see us safe, but I don't think we should worry at all. Lampard's MotD interview pointed fingers at his predecessors and wasn't particularly inspiring. Palace are struggling to win games, Leeds' are all bluster and Brentfords bubble has relatively burst (I know... I've said it now...). Burnley, Watford and Norwich are all shite and we need to play two of them still.

 

I just don't see anything to concern ourselves with so long as we continue in a similar vein to what we have under Howe thus far. 

[madras]

26 minutes ago, Heron said:

Think we just have to be focused and not get carried away, we're in form but nothing about Howe suggests to me he's the type to lose sight or focus of the end task. He's measured and composed.

 

Burnley have 2 games in hand on us, but are 5 points behind. It is unlikely they'll win both to see themselves above us. Othet than them, there's only Everton and Leicester who have games in hand on us. We have the 3rd best form over the last 5 games and if you include Leicester in those 'reachable' teams then that's 10 teams, who realistically cannot all pick up points in the same gameweek.

 

It'll take another 10 games to see us safe, but I don't think we should worry at all. Lampard's MotD interview pointed fingers at his predecessors and wasn't particularly inspiring. Palace are struggling to win games, Leeds' are all bluster and Brentfords bubble has relatively burst (I know... I've said it now...). Burnley, Watford and Norwich are all shite and we need to play two of them still.

 

I just don't see anything to concern ourselves with so long as we continue in a similar vein to what we have under Howe thus far. 

One of Burnleys games is tonight and I think Evertons game in hand is erm......us.

[Heron]

5 minutes ago, madras said:

One of Burnleys games is tonight and I think Evertons game in hand is erm......us.

If Everton have one game in hand on us, it cannot be us - granted our game was rearranged.

 

Also when Burnley game in hand is doesn't matter. They have 2 in hand and need to win both.

 

I have us staying up by 5 points - above;

 

Brentford on 31

Watford on 28

Burnley on 26

Norwich on 24

 

That's without beating Burnley or Norwich (draws at both) and a defeat away at Everton. 

[Pata]

On 20/02/2022 at 20:04, 54 said:

I know odds don't mean shite, but OddsChecker has Burnley, Norwich, Watford, Leeds and Brentford as more likely to go down.

 

Why don't they mean shite? They would be out of business if they were shite at probabilities.

[madras]

2 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

Why don't they mean shite? They would be out of business if they were shite at probabilities.

Not really, their reactions are just as much to where money is being placed.

[Pata]

8 minutes ago, madras said:

Not really, their reactions are just as much to where money is being placed.

 

It's a niche market, don't think it really moves with the money involved. I think the Biden vs Trump was one of the rare occasions in the past few years where the odds didn't really reflect the probabilities due to massive amounts of right wing money on Trump. And in general if there's a lot of money on something then someone thinks they know better than the market and the odds change according to that.

 

 

Edited February 23, 2022 by Pata

[Decky]

7 hours ago, PlymouthGeordie said:

If I could pick one of the three teams to lose tonight it would be Burnley. If they win they'll have real momentum.

 

I've seen a lot of posts (not just on this forum) of "if we beat Brentford etc. etc." but Toney being back is a huge boost for them.

 

I think I'm just nervous about the Brentford game because it's so big and all the talk is about us winning an important game which I'm really not used to.

 

If we lose it, and results tonight and at the weekend go against us we're back in the bottom 3.

This is why I don’t understand people not being arsed if Watford win. I want the bottom 3 to lose every time they play. Getting closer to Palace doesn’t bother me, I’d take finishing 17th right now because this seasons a write off if we stay up anyway. We just need to survive and get stronger in the summer.