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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


midds

The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)  

406 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to get relegated this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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Could've done without Burnley winning but it is still in our hands as we still have Burnley to play. Even still I think we'll be safe before then. I can't see Watford or Norwich getting to 30 points tbh, so that leaves 1 spot left. Saturday is huge, if we can win there I think we'll also beat Brighton at home after that; that'd be 8 games unbeaten, 5 wins in those 8. Teams that go on that kind of run don't go down. We're improving in every metric and still have better players to come back into the team. We'll be okay, tad bit of trepidation around these away games up to the international break though. Need to be getting points on Saturday, at Everton and probably at Southampton too given that trip to Stamford Bridge in between.

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1 hour ago, SUPERTOON said:

Like the optimism but I can’t see how we realistically get 24/25 points between now and the end of the season 

But you can see where Leeds, Brentford, Burnley and Everton get 24/25 points ?

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1 hour ago, SUPERTOON said:

Like the optimism but I can’t see how we realistically get 24/25 points between now and the end of the season 

 

We're very strong at home, teams won't want to come to SJP right now and aside from Liverpool (h) I can see us getting points in all of our home games from now to the end of the season. Howe has only lost at home to Man City since he's been in charge and the scoreline from that game flattered Man City. Only problem is with Palace (h) likely to be moved due to FA Cup, that'd mean that only 1 of our next 6 games are at home.

 

Need to see more of us away from home under Howe to make a judgement on how effective we are, only had tough games up to now but Leeds and West Ham both were promising.

 

 

Edited by HaydnNUFC

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Again, the table for games since Howe took over has us as 11th. We just need to continue our form  for the last 3 and a half months  (as in for that whole period, not just this unsustainably great last few games) and we'll be reet. (Even add in the Jones games and make it just 'post-Bruce' and we're still 11th)

 

Since Howe appointment, 8th Nov:

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:premier-league/daterange/fromdate:2021-Nov-08/todate:2022-Jun-01/type:home-and-away/

 

 

Edited by Inferior Acuña

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Assuming Leeds lose Spurs. Even a point jumps us above them and also Everton prior to their late game with City. 
 

The way the results have gone with teams above us of late. A win against Brentford would be huge. That properly drags 7 teams into it. 
 

I think the more teams in it the better. No idea if this is logical or not. But it would make me less nervous. 

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I was always thought Burnley would get out of this and have been saying for months it’s unfair to judge them when they have a huge number of games in hand. In my opinion, Brentford and Leeds are more likely to go down than them so we just have to finish above one of these two.
 

Leeds are in serious trouble because they are so open, only seem to play one way and don’t know how to grind out a result. But they have had some tough games come in quick succession so they could turn this around. The same could be said with Brentford regarding the tough set of games, but they play us, Norwich and Burnley in the next 3 and that will tell us a lot about them and where they will finish.

 

I’ll be in the home end on Saturday with two Brentford supporting mates and I’m hoping that we can find a way to win so I can sit there smugly 

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Burnley result was no surprise. They look like relegation candidates every year but always manage to wriggle away from the bottom. Dyke is the master at getting something from nothing

 

 

Edited by jackyboy
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Brentford have 12 points from the last 19 games (a whole half season's worth), it's not down to a hard run but been consistently bad over a long period. They're living off their first seven games, when they were buzzing to be up and got 3 wins, 3 draws and a defeat (12 points - half of their total points). I really think everything points to them going down unless they really buck the trend over their next 13 games. Really hope we can help them on their way with that this weekend (nothing personal) - a draw even wouldn't be too bad but hope we go hard for win.

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5 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Eh? Where and when did I say that ? 

Well it's implied. If you don't think k we are going to get another 24/25 points ( which we don't necessarily need) then, for us to be in trouble, you must think at least one of them will.

 

 

Edited by madras

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Just now, madras said:

Well it's implied. If you don't think k we are going to get another 24/25 points ( which we don't necessarily need) then, for us to be in trouble, you must think at least one of them will.

 

 

 

It’s not implied at all, I’m saying I don’t think we will get 24/25 more points, if we did that would give us over 50 points and I don’t think we have that in us. I don’t think any of the sides down there do, I also don’t think it’s needed. I’d say 36 points will be enough to stay up.

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1 minute ago, SUPERTOON said:

It’s not implied at all, I’m saying I don’t think we will get 24/25 more points, if we did that would give us over 50 points and I don’t think we have that in us. I don’t think any of the sides down there do, I also don’t think it’s needed. I’d say 36 points will be enough to stay up.

My bad, didn't throughly read what you were responding to.

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Last night changed my thinking in that I now begrudgingly admit that maybe there is something to that PFM thing 'Burnely have been here before, they will be fine' thinking. I still am pretty confident we will survive, but now I do think it will be a team that has sort of been on the outskirts of the battle for an extended time. By brain says there's a strong chance it could be Brentford, especially if we get a positive point at the weekend. Leeds look like they're in the shit, but both they and Burnley have probably the easiest run-in of all the teams down at the bottom.

 

Everton are one of those sides where the prospect of them going down seems impossible/far-fetched (probably how a lot of people felt about us before our first Ashley relegation), but that could go against them. They could end up sleepwalking into relegation, all the while muttering "we'll be fine". They've also got the hardest run-in, take a look at their final few fixtures and its hard to see where the points will come from.  

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Burnley were operating on fine lines and always thought they were the biggest threat. Our injuries worry me but think we have enough now to move away and think Burnley will also.

 

Leeds or Brentford to fill the last slot I reckon.

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17 minutes ago, midds said:

How many more games does Bielsa have before Leeds pull the trigger? Or is he that highly thought of that they'll let him carry on?

Think he’ll walk before being pushed, personally.

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