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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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18 minutes ago, McCormick said:

Our very congested fixture list in March has me slightly worried. Winnable games on paper but not sure our squad is good enough to get the results with all the inevitable squad rotation and potential injuries.

 

Fwiw I’m confident, to an extent, that we’ll survive but I imagine the table won’t be anywhere near as flattering 3 weeks from now. Or it could be and I’m just a massive fanny :lol: .

 

 

 

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The points total needed to stay up may have crept up looking at the form of Burnley and Watford looking at least more competent.  But with 13 games left I can see us being around a point a game or just under.  We’ll be fine, I’m at 1 

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Yeah, if we win on Saturday it’s a target we can set ourselves. If we don’t win we’re still looking good to finish above the bottom 4 or 5 still.

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Just thought you'd like to see (a very poor copy - wish there was a better way to paste into this forum) off my s/sheet I use to record the results.

Shows games to go, dates and who, (note - doesn't show home or away - hence two Lei's for Everton as still yet to play them).

 

                                                 March                                           April                                       May                    
                                                                   

                     Games to Go      1        5       10      12      17     19      2        9       16      23      30        7       15    22          TBA    TBA
New                     13                         bri    sou    che    eve    cry    tot     wol     lei     nor      liv      mnc    ars    bur            
Bre                       11                         nor              bur    lei               che    whu    wat   tot      mnu   sou     eve    lee            
leeds                   12                          lei    ast     nor              wol    sou    wat    che    cry     mnc   ars      bri    bre            
Eve                      14                         tot              wol    new   wat   whu    mnu   cry    liv      che     lei       bre    ars         lei    bur
Burnley                14                lei    che             bre               sou    mnc   nor    whu    wol   wat    ast      tot    new        ast    eve
Watford                12                       ars    wol    sou               eve    liv       lee    bre    mnc    bur    cry      lei    che            
Norwich               12                       bre               lee               che    bri    bur    mnu    new    ast    whu    wol    tot         lei    
 

 

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7 minutes ago, South-Cheshire-Toon said:

Just thought you'd like to see (a very poor copy - wish there was a better way to paste into this forum) off my s/sheet I use to record the results.

Shows games to go, dates and who, (note - doesn't show home or away - hence two Lei's for Everton as still yet to play them).

 

                                                 March                                           April                                       May                    
                                                                   

                     Games to Go      1        5       10      12      17     19      2        9       16      23      30        7       15    22          TBA    TBA
New                     13                         bri    sou    che    eve    cry    tot     wol     lei     nor      liv      mnc    ars    bur            
Bre                       11                         nor              bur    lei               che    whu    wat   tot      mnu   sou     eve    lee            
leeds                   12                          lei    ast     nor              wol    sou    wat    che    cry     mnc   ars      bri    bre            
Eve                      14                         tot              wol    new   wat   whu    mnu   cry    liv      che     lei       bre    ars         lei    bur
Burnley                14                lei    che             bre               sou    mnc   nor    whu    wol   wat    ast      tot    new        ast    eve
Watford                12                       ars    wol    sou               eve    liv       lee    bre    mnc    bur    cry      lei    che            
Norwich               12                       bre               lee               che    bri    bur    mnu    new    ast    whu    wol    tot         lei    
 

 

:dowie:

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34 minutes ago, South-Cheshire-Toon said:

Just thought you'd like to see (a very poor copy - wish there was a better way to paste into this forum) off my s/sheet I use to record the results.

Shows games to go, dates and who, (note - doesn't show home or away - hence two Lei's for Everton as still yet to play them).

 

                                                 March                                           April                                       May                    
                                                                   

                     Games to Go      1        5       10      12      17     19      2        9       16      23      30        7       15    22          TBA    TBA
New                     13                         bri    sou    che    eve    cry    tot     wol     lei     nor      liv      mnc    ars    bur            
Bre                       11                         nor              bur    lei               che    whu    wat   tot      mnu   sou     eve    lee            
leeds                   12                          lei    ast     nor              wol    sou    wat    che    cry     mnc   ars      bri    bre            
Eve                      14                         tot              wol    new   wat   whu    mnu   cry    liv      che     lei       bre    ars         lei    bur
Burnley                14                lei    che             bre               sou    mnc   nor    whu    wol   wat    ast      tot    new        ast    eve
Watford                12                       ars    wol    sou               eve    liv       lee    bre    mnc    bur    cry      lei    che            
Norwich               12                       bre               lee               che    bri    bur    mnu    new    ast    whu    wol    tot         lei    
 

 


My eyes!!!!

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We've reached that magic point per game marker which more or less guarantees you a place in the league, that feels significant.

 

From Brighton (h), Southampton (a), Chelsea (a) and Everton (a) I'd probably shake hands on 4pts as it stands (WLLD), which would give us 29 from 29. I reckon 34-35 probably does the trick this year, so we then need 2 wins from 8 to (hopefully) make the Burnley game a dead rubber, as I wouldn't fancy needing to go there under pressure and get something.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Not a chance we're finishing ahead of Wolves.

Games up coming Brighton and Southampton good chance of 6 points, tricky game of Chelsea away but think we are good for a point then Everton and Palace which I can't see us not beating both with Wolves still to play. We also have a game in hand. I wouldn't back against it that's for sure.

 

 

Edited by WillingtonMag

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I'd take a point at Southampton. Much like ourselves, they're in fantastic form and they've lost once at Saint Mary's this season. I can easily see it being where the unbeaten run comes to an end.

 

As for Wolves, they're 15 points above us, having played one more game. We're playing very well and I certainly don't think we'll go down, but there's a chance we won't get another 15 points this season.

 

 

Edited by The Prophet

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1 hour ago, South-Cheshire-Toon said:

Just thought you'd like to see (a very poor copy - wish there was a better way to paste into this forum) off my s/sheet I use to record the results.

Shows games to go, dates and who, (note - doesn't show home or away - hence two Lei's for Everton as still yet to play them).

 

                                                 March                                           April                                       May                    
                                                                   

                     Games to Go      1        5       10      12      17     19      2        9       16      23      30        7       15    22          TBA    TBA
New                     13                         bri    sou    che    eve    cry    tot     wol     lei     nor      liv      mnc    ars    bur            
Bre                       11                         nor              bur    lei               che    whu    wat   tot      mnu   sou     eve    lee            
leeds                   12                          lei    ast     nor              wol    sou    wat    che    cry     mnc   ars      bri    bre            
Eve                      14                         tot              wol    new   wat   whu    mnu   cry    liv      che     lei       bre    ars         lei    bur
Burnley                14                lei    che             bre               sou    mnc   nor    whu    wol   wat    ast      tot    new        ast    eve
Watford                12                       ars    wol    sou               eve    liv       lee    bre    mnc    bur    cry      lei    che            
Norwich               12                       bre               lee               che    bri    bur    mnu    new    ast    whu    wol    tot         lei    
 

 

 

You can just about make that out, but would have been better if the respective home matches were in say capitals. I think there's a perception that Everton will just about have enough at home to get over the line, but then which teams they have to face at home or away, is pretty crucial. Likewise, Southampton (A) seems a fair bit tougher than playing them at home, similar with Leicester etc.

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14 minutes ago, Paullow said:

WillingtonMag is either one of the most optimistic posters you will ever find, or has some sort of ulterior motive - I just can't decide yet [emoji38]

 

Haha I didn't fancy us against Brentford you can check the pre match thread ? must be feeling guilty over doubting us. Just think we've turned a corner and really look a good team at the minute, we are second in the form table and if we'd had Howe from the start of this season with the players we have now honestly think we'd be above West Ham.

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2 hours ago, Paullow said:

 

You can just about make that out, but would have been better if the respective home matches were in say capitals. I think there's a perception that Everton will just about have enough at home to get over the line, but then which teams they have to face at home or away, is pretty crucial. Likewise, Southampton (A) seems a fair bit tougher than playing them at home, similar with Leicester etc.

 

If someone knows a way of cutting and pasting text into this forum then let me know as all formatting seems to be lost whenever I do a cut and paste from excel.

But yes, if I can get the paste working then I'll update the table, as it seems that for some it's a bit confusing, or it is their brain power ?

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As just posted in the fixtures thread. After this weekend. 4 aways on the spin, two of which against Chelsea and Spurs is hardly ideal.

 

But if we can get through those and still have a bit of a cushion to the bottom 3. Then there wouldn’t be as much pressure next 2-3 home games in a row after that. 
 

This all seemed unimaginable what, 6-7 weeks ago? Massive turnaround. 

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Just now, Lush Vlad said:

As just posted in the fixtures thread. After this weekend. 4 aways on the spin, two of which against Chelsea and Spurs is hardly ideal.

 

But if we can get through those and still have a bit of a cushion to the bottom 3. Then there wouldn’t be as much pressure next 2-3 home games in a row after that. 
 

This all seemed unimaginable what, 6-7 weeks ago? Massive turnaround. 


Need a win against Brighton and if Burnley get beat off Chelsea then that will leave a decent margin to have a good go in those away games. 

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5 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:

As just posted in the fixtures thread. After this weekend. 4 aways on the spin, two of which against Chelsea and Spurs is hardly ideal.

 

But if we can get through those and still have a bit of a cushion to the bottom 3. Then there wouldn’t be as much pressure next 2-3 home games in a row after that. 
 

This all seemed unimaginable what, 6-7 weeks ago? Massive turnaround. 

Sounds simplistic but I think we’ll win on Saturday and not feel overly worried again.

 

 

Edited by Dr Venkman

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