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Still not worthy of a thread


Yorkie

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On 08/04/2021 at 15:32, AyeDubbleYoo said:

xG is a measure of how good the chances are basically, based on where the shot is from, angle, distance, foot vs head etc etc 

If you create lots of chances you can have a great xG but if your finishing is worse than the model suggests you'll obviously end up much worse off. And same with defending, you can concede lots of chances but have better saving than average. 

It's not really a measure of how 'good' a team you are, because finishing, saving, blocking etc are all part of that equation as well. It's just one measure to show how good the opportunities you have and concede are.

Problem with xG us that it doesn't take into account the actual goals scored. A team chasing a result is far more likely to have more chances than the winning team, so an xG table like that isn't really that accurate. 

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Does xG take into account a ‘double save’ for example? Say Gayle hits a shot at a keeper which may have been 0.3 chance of a goal, then puts the rebound wide which was also 0.3, does xG add that as 0.6 or 0.3 in total?

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6 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

Does xG take into account a ‘double save’ for example? Say Gayle hits a shot at a keeper which may have been 0.3 chance of a goal, then puts the rebound wide which was also 0.3, does xG add that as 0.6 or 0.3 in total?

 

Quote

 

In the 78th minute, Nürnberg attempted three shots which ultimately led to a goal. Hanno Behrens attempts a shot that is saved, but he is able to take a second shot as the ball is deflected off the defender. The second shot goes off the woodwork, which allows Adam Zreľák to easily tap it in. According to StatsBomb's expected goals model:

  • Behrens' first shot with the goalkeeper in his way = .37 xG
  • Behrens' second shot with the goalkeeper out of position but a defender in the way = .68 xG
  • Zreľák's shot with an open net = .81 xG

The sum of these three shots is 1.86 expected goals, even though it is impossible to score more than one goal in a single move. To solve this problem, we find the probability that the defending team does not allow a goal in this possession. In this case, the calculation is:

(1 - .37) x (1 - .68) x (1 - .81) = .0383 or a 3.83% probability that Schalke does not allow a goal

To find Nürnberg's xG, we simply subtract that probability from 1:

1 - .0383 = .9617 xG

 

So for Gayle

(1-0.3) x (1-0.3) = 0.7 x 0.7 = 0.49 of no goal, .51 XG

 

https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/

 

 

Edited by Inferior Acuña

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On 11/04/2021 at 11:53, Optimistic Nut said:


Tweet by Hearts TVs commentator. Would be equivalent to Raisbeck posting similar. :lol:

Following this, Hearts fans campaigning for the club to ‘leave it on the stand’ in regards to picking up the trophy when it gets awarded. Wanting the players to go up, take their medals and walk back down the tunnel.

 

 

Edited by Optimistic Nut

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11 hours ago, The Prophet said:

What are our thoughts on player of the year (as it stands)? I think it should be:

1. Dias 2. Kane 3. Bruno

...but think it will be:

1. Bruno 2. Dias 3. Gundogen

It should be Dias > Bruno > Kane, but they've all been outstanding and any combination of the 3 is acceptable. Gundogan shouldn't and probably won't be anywhere near it.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Froggy said:

It should be Dias > Bruno > Kane, but they've all been outstanding and any combination of the 3 is acceptable. Gundogan shouldn't and probably won't be anywhere near it.

Seemed like Gundogan was carrying Man City for quite a period of time. 

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9 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Seemed like Gundogan was carrying Man City for quite a period of time. 

Gundogan has been great, but he's well behind the other 3. He's not as important to City as Dias. Kane and Bruno would be above Dias apart from the fact that City will win the league. That has to count for a lot.

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