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12 hours ago, Lush Vlad said:


If you’re into your xG stuff. As I know so many on here are…… :lol: Then they over perform at both ends of the pitch, I think. 
 

I feel like there are some similarities with our 5th place under Pardew and when Leicester won the league. Somewhere in-between. I don’t think it is sustainable long term. But I think it will work for them this season and get them top 5. They have been brilliant at what they do and they’ll give us a harder game at SJP than what they did at their place, I reckon. 
 

I get your wider point. But I’m not sure taking about 4 hours to get finally get past Exeter on pens, after Exeter played with 10 for around 45 minutes. Is over performing :lol: 

 

Think Forest have scored early a lot so xg is probably a bit misleading as they've been happy to defend those leads pretty deep. They have attacking players on a great form and defend really well. I'm not expecting them to be mainstay in top 8 though, it's not really a formula for sustained success like you said.

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1 minute ago, Pata said:

 

Think Forest have scored early a lot so xg is probably a bit misleading as they've been happy to defend those leads pretty deep. They have attacking players on a great form and defend really well. I'm not expecting them to be mainstay in top 8 though, it's not really a formula for sustained success like you said.


True. I suppose the fact they have scored first in so many games. Has meant they can execute their game plan to perfection. But them scoring first so often can’t all be down to luck. 
 

I was more referencing their performance vs their xG, anyway. Isn’t Wood massively over-performing and the team in general are, too. 
 

Not actually seen the data. I remember someone referencing it on 5 Live a while back and it sounded about right for how they usually look when they play. 

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2 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:


True. I suppose the fact they have scored first in so many games. Has meant they can execute their game plan to perfection. But them scoring first so often can’t all be down to luck. 
 

I was more referencing their performance vs their xG, anyway. Isn’t Wood massively over-performing and the team in general are, too. 
 

Not actually seen the data. I remember someone referencing it on 5 Live a while back and it sounded about right for how they usually look when they play. 

 

Looking at understat, they are 9th in expected points. Wood has scored 5 goals above his xG and they've been pretty lucky defending (over 5 less goals conceded than xG). Probably pretty similar to that one Pardew season and feels like they'll struggle a lot next season with the almost guaranteed extra games in Europe.

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