Kid Icarus Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 (edited) 2 hours ago, The College Dropout said: I don't remember this match. But looking at the stats broadly. Man U had 20 attempts. Which is a lot. But no big chances. So that 1.16 is likely an accumulation of high volume of low Xg shots. Sofascore and the highlights have Bournemouth creating 4 big chances and scoring 3. They had 10 shots with 4 on target. Watching the highlights all of the goals were good chances but none were sitters. Those headers get ballooned fairly frequently which is why their individual Xg is lower than we might think. The headers weren't point blank but they were uncontested. I agree the Bournemouth big chances could cumulatively have a higher Xg. But again, good chances but not sitters or 1v1s I think a wider context of the stats paints a decent picture (when watching the highlights anyway). 4 big chances to 0, Bournemouth deserved to win and Man U deserved to lose. I agree the Xg paints a closer game than what I've seen in the highlights. Big chances is also a favourite stat of mine. Some models use it to mean an Xg of over 0.25, 1 in 4 is scored. But it differs model to model. Thanks for sharing. I remember Burnely Dyche team tended to concede a high volume of low quality chances. With Nick Pope in goal it made it look like they were lucky but really the shot quality was poor and they had a beast in goal. Yeah, as you allude to, you can't get the full context from xG and even when you're looking over the match again with other stats it will never be a substitute for watching it all. My overruling mantra with football, and why I love it, is that it's chaos, and these stats are good for scouting players and seeing patterns rather than judging things on a chance-by-chance or game-by-game basis. For example, in that match (which I did watch), Bournemouth had a goal disallowed for offside that I'd put down to being completely Solanke's own fault - he could see the line and didn't need to be offside (Froggy this is for you*) Solanke also did have a big 1 on 1 chance and hit the post. They also had a goal disallowed because the ball hit the players' hand before he tapped it into an empty net. And there were other scenarios where shots weren't taken that I would consider big chances that weren't taken too, particularly in the first half. Things like that will always fall through the cracks of certain stats and need to be seen to understand 'okay, that was offside/handball so doesn't count as a shot or a chance, let alone a goal, but because of these circumstances what I've just seen is telling me something that's more revealing and representative of the match' Like you say with Burnley, it's all about context. Overperforming xG can mean loads of things - the likes of Man City will do that because all of their players are world class and are going beyond an already high xG, whereas when you watched Brentford last season you got the impression that their overperformance of xG was because they were flying very close to the wind and it didn't look or feel like a sustainable way to play football at the level they were hitting. This season Man United's overperformance of xG is down to being bailed out, similar to Spurs last season. * Edited April 17 by Kid Icarus Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
80 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 5 hours ago, Tsunami said: I honestly don’t remember many clear cut chances, they undoubtedly had all of the possession and got themselves in great positions, I just didn’t feel they were going to score and we had our game plan spot on. Their XG was also massively boosted by that ridiculous penalty. That might be rose tinted but I’ve felt far more nervous in other games. Against Arsenal we looked like we had no plan and they created really good chances. XG is bollocks imo btw, it’s really all about context. I’ve little doubt if PSG had scored 20 mins earlier that we’d have lost and deservedly so, probably by a couple of goals. Agreed. PSG away was a great defensive performance. They had loads of shots but there was constantly a body narrowing shooting angles, a shin deflecting, or a nudge forcing them off balance when playing the decisive pass. They were forced to perform at a pace which made them rely on instinctive talent rather than deliberation, and their instincts weren't good enough to break us down. They absolutely could have scored two or three, but I would not say they ever carved us open - creating meaningful one on ones with Pope, or having the ball fly across the face of our goal without any defensive intervention. I don't recall any of our team ever being at 6s and 7s, spinning in circles wondering where the ball had gone without a partner nearby backing them up. Also, a bit of a bugbear of mine - goalkeepers are part of the team too. I think the position gets underweighted when declaring whether a team has had a good match. It should never be forgotten how bad the circumstances were when we played that match, due to injuries. 17 year old Miley playing one of his first games for the club in centre midfield, outfielders carrying injuries and nothing but children and pensioners on the bench. The team had already hit the point of physical exhaustion in this match, with this week of games being the final one before the grim winter took hold. They survived that match with brains and iron will. It was magnificent. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
toon25 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Looking forward to the games tonight. Think Bayern-Arsenal will be tense. Can see City wrapping it up without too much hassle. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankpingel Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Think I'll start watching the Man City game first but keep an eye on Arsenal and switch if it develops into something special. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
buzza Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 41 minutes ago, toon25 said: Looking forward to the games tonight. Think Bayern-Arsenal will be tense. Can see City wrapping it up without too much hassle. Madrid are on fire at the moment, will be no stroll for Madrid. Very evenly matched for me... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monters Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 1 hour ago, 80 said: Agreed. PSG away was a great defensive performance. They had loads of shots but there was constantly a body narrowing shooting angles, a shin deflecting, or a nudge forcing them off balance when playing the decisive pass. They were forced to perform at a pace which made them rely on instinctive talent rather than deliberation, and their instincts weren't good enough to break us down. They absolutely could have scored two or three, but I would not say they ever carved us open - creating meaningful one on ones with Pope, or having the ball fly across the face of our goal without any defensive intervention. I don't recall any of our team ever being at 6s and 7s, spinning in circles wondering where the ball had gone without a partner nearby backing them up. Also, a bit of a bugbear of mine - goalkeepers are part of the team too. I think the position gets underweighted when declaring whether a team has had a good match. It should never be forgotten how bad the circumstances were when we played that match, due to injuries. 17 year old Miley playing one of his first games for the club in centre midfield, outfielders carrying injuries and nothing but children and pensioners on the bench. The team had already hit the point of physical exhaustion in this match, with this week of games being the final one before the grim winter took hold. They survived that match with brains and iron will. It was magnificent. Totally agree - especially the bit in bold! Goalkeepers doing what they are paid to do (without going all Roy Keane) is not luck... Used to really annoy me whenever we were called lucky because Given had played brilliantly... On the flip side the narrative was never followed when Schmiechel used to bail Man U on a regular basis especially in the 'Keegan bottled it season' Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geogaddi Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Have a feeling Munich will knock Arsenal out in the same way Dortmund beat us , not necessarily a better team but they have the experience and know how to win these sort of games a lot more than Arsenal do. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OoOGazOoO Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 5 hours ago, buzza said: Madrid are on fire at the moment, will be no stroll for Madrid. Very evenly matched for me... Madrid are on fire so it will be no easy stroll for Madrid? I'm looking forward to the game, I'd like to see a Real win but think City will be too strong. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newcastle Fan Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 My Prediction is both City and Bayern will dominate and win with relative ease. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magpie Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 City playing Hey Jude???? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginola14 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 (edited) City ripping off Wor Flags prematch? don't recall seeing similar displays there before didn't think it was very good mind Edited April 17 by Ginola14 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duo Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Just now, Magpie said: City playing Hey Jude???? Yeah copied us Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duo Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Come on RM Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
astraguy Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Fucking hell have i lose the sound! Awful atmosphere at man city Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUPERTOON Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Just now, duo said: Yeah copied us About 5 different clubs do in fairness Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
samptime29 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Absolutely hyped for this game. City team looks strong! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBG Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Should be us man Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Can’t see a fucking thing in Munich Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
buzz Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Bayern game taking place in Silent Hill? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
brummie Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 That City thing with the bin bags, fucking hell, that's the most cringe thing I've seen in a football stadium for years. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordshola Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Man city v Real Madrid quarter final second leg all square. and you can hear a pin drop… Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paully Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 “Kane was on loan at Millwall when Bayern last didn’t win the league”! Ha ha the poor bastard! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dancing Brave Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 1 minute ago, Lordshola said: Man city v Real Madrid quarter final second leg all square. and you can hear a pin drop… No you can't. I've never heard one pin drop. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordie Ahmed Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Last season City put in one of the greatest CL performances as they ripped Real Madrid apart, very early days but they look flat so far Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordie Ahmed Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 And just as I say that Real take the lead Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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